Monday, April 13, 2009

Evening Report-April 13.


The Rupee gave up some of its early morning gains and closed at 49.88 levelswhen it rose to its highest level in 6 weeks on back of gains in stocks and upswing in some Asian currencies. Some banks bought dollars to cover their short dollar positions weighing in on the local unit. U.S. Dollar found support as U.S. traders started to return after the holiday weekend. Additionally, the economic docket is empty and wont provide any event risk for the day. Advance retail sales release is expected to show a 0.3% gain. A pick up in consumer consumption would keep with the current trend of improving fundamentals. The U.S. economy is starting to see the housing market stabilize, credit conditions loosen and optimism increase, which should all help spur domestic growth. Market is anticipating the release of Goldman Sachs reports tomorrow . If we start to see signs of increasing profits then equity markets could build on last weeks gains and lead to a weaker dollar in the short-term. Euro would reach as high as 1.3216 as it started to receive a bid tone after reaching an Asian trading session low of 1.3126. Increasing optimism has kept the single currency supported as it remains one of the higher yielding major currencies, despite the ECB cutting the benchmark rate to 1.25% last policy meeting. President Trichet signaled that the central bank would most likely keep rates on hold at its next meeting but would consider non-standard measures. Many market participants are beginning to speculate that the committee will be forced to take additional efforts as the regions economy continues to deteriorate, which could be a weighing factor on the pair. A break below this level could lead to a retrace back to 1.2500. Pound rose to 1.4750 against the dollar despite London markets being closed and an empty economic calendar. We may not see significant volatility this week from the currency as there is no major fundamental release scheduled. Therefore the broader theme of risk appetite should be the main driver of price action. Indeed, after the BoE left their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and forecasted that their current quantitative easing pan would take two months to complete interest rate expectations should not be a factor as well. The yen slid against the major counterparts on speculation that the global financial crisis is easing, spurring investors to buy higher-yielding assets financed with the Japanese currency. The yen also declined as Bank of Japan Deputy Governor said today monetary policy alone isn't enough to end the economic slump

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