Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Euro remained on lower note but pound rallied on brown's comments-April 16.

Euro came under pressure in early Europe as ECBs Weber commented on unconventional measures (ie. Quantitative Easing) at next months meeting. Also weighing was the EUR/GBP cross which continued to make new lows this week. A bounce in the US session on the back of EUR/JPY buying helped the Euro reclaim 1.3200 but further gains will require fresh USD weakness. Looking ahead for March Industrial Production forecast at -2.4% vs. -3.5% previously. Also released, Core CPI (Mar) forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.4% m/m previously .Sterling finally broke through the 1.500 level albeit not for very long on the back of improvement in the RICS house Price Balance which jumped to -73 vs. -78 previously. A sustained break is now needed to talk of further upside targets.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.3315 S1: 1.3100 R2: 1.3330 S2: 1.3080
Chart pattern hints towards a bearish move. With the trading range of 1.3120-1.3302 levels for the day. Stochastic has given bearish crossover and is pointing down supported by momentum. Currency is trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers.
GBP R1: 1.5070 S1: 1. 4860 R2: 1.5080 S2: 1. 4850
Chart pattern gives mixed signals for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4890-1.5060 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down from the over bought levels .Momentum is also supporting the view .Currency is trading above the moving averages giving a caution signal.

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