rupee depreciates

USDINR is expected to depreciate for the day with trading range expected between 50.70-51.30 for the day. With good support seen at 50.60 levels and key resistance is seen at 51.45 levels . Stochastic signals the depreciation of the Indian unit in near term . currency is also seen trading above the fast moving average thereby hinting for further depreciation.

rupee depreciates

USDINR is expected to depreciate for the day with trading range expected between 50.70-51.30 for the day. With good support seen at 50.60 levels and key resistance is seen at 51.45 levels . Stochastic signals the depreciation of the Indian unit in near term . currency is also seen trading above the fast moving average thereby hinting for further depreciation.

Euro seen on weak note

euro weakened on expectations ECB President will signal further interest rate-cuts when he speaks before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs today. The 16-nation currency declined amid speculation leaders from the Group of 20 nations, who meet on April 2 in London, will fail to agree on fiscal measures to counter the slump. European officials earlier this month said they had spent enough money to combat the financial crisis and don’t want to blow out their budgets.
EURO R1: 1.3340 S1:1.3090
R2: 1.3360 S2:1.3060
chart pattern indicates the currency to move on bear run for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3140-1.3310levels for the day. Day Stochastic signals for slight downward correction for the day .Overall the currency is seen on buy side today. Yet the parabolic hints for a slight upward correction in near term .

pound reamianed weak

Tech view 30 march 2009
GBP R1: 1.4390 S1: 1. 4100
R2: 1.4380 S2: 1. 4080
chart pattern shows the currency to be on bear run for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4140-1.4300 levels for the day. Momentum is seen trending down indicating bear note to continue for the day. Day trend remains bear for the currency .

Yen rose

The yen rose against the euro on speculation declines in stocks will prompt investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets. Pound reamins weak and traded low against major currencies
tech view mar 30 2009
YEN R1: 98.50 S1:96.40
R2: 98.60 S2:96.30
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to have a upside movement for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 96.60-98.40.levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving room for a bullish correction.

The Australian dollar slid for a second day

The Australian dollar slid for a second day as regional stocks and commodities tumbled on concerns about the depth of the global recession. The currency weakened after their central banks slashed interest rates amid falling prices for commodities and equities as the industrialized world enters a synchronized recession.
tech view march 30 2009
AUD R1: 0. 6960 S1:0.6710
R2: 0.6980 S2: 0.6700
Chart pattern shows the currency to have sideways movement for the day. .Trading range is expected between 0.6750-0.6940levels .Stochastic is seen trending down giving indication of a bearish consolidation for the day.

Evening report mar 25

ndian unit rose and ended at 50.73/74.Premiums down as exporters sell forward dollars. US dollar declined from a 6-day high against the European currency and a 2-day high against the Swiss franc.The euro advanced against the dollar and pared an earlier loss versus the yen after German business confidence fell in line with economists’ expectations. The single currency also pared an earlier decline versus after the Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to 82.1 in March, from 82.6 in February. That’s the worst reading since November 1982. Economists expected a decline to 82.2.The pound fell against the dollar and the euro after the country’s main stock index dropped and as HSBC Holdings Plc said it will cut about 1,200 jobs in the U.K., adding to signs the recession is deepening. The pound retreated from near the highest level since December versus the yen as the cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default rose, sapping demand for riskier assets. Reports tomorrow may show house prices slipped and retail sales contracted in February, according to separate Bloomberg economist surveys. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback traded down during today's early deals.The Ministry of Finance said that Japan saw a merchandise trade balance of 82.4 billion yen in February, marking the first surplus in five months. The February figure came in better than expectations for a 13.7 billion yen deficit following the revised record 956.9 billion yen shortfall in January. The original figure came in at -952.6 billion yen.

Evening report mar 24

Rupee ended 50.72/50.73.Rupee slipped against US dollar as banks continued to buy the greenback noting its rise against euro and as local shares erased intra day gains. Month-end dollar demand from importers also expedited the Indian unit's fall today. Dollar slumped to a 6-week low against the pound as world stocks extended gains on optimism the U.S. Treasury's plan to remove banks' toxic assets will revive economic growth, reducing the safety appeal of the US currency .Extending Asian session's downtrend, the euro declined to new multi-day lows against the British pound and the Swiss franc after the German newspaper Bild reported today that German government forecast the largest Euro zone economy to shrink this year. . The German government forecast the largest Euro zone economy to contract in the range of 4% to 4.5% this year, the German newspaper. pound gained against its major counterparts. Annual inflation is forecast to ease to 2.6% in February from 3% last month. Meanwhile, retail prices are expected to drop 0.7% annually, following a 0.1% rise in January. The yen fell to a five-month low against the euro as U.S. plans to help banks dispose of toxic assets spurred investor appetite for higher-yielding currencies.

Evening report mar 24

Rupee ended 50.72/50.73.Rupee slipped against US dollar as banks continued to buy the greenback noting its rise against euro and as local shares erased intra day gains. Month-end dollar demand from importers also expedited the Indian unit's fall today. Dollar slumped to a 6-week low against the pound as world stocks extended gains on optimism the U.S. Treasury's plan to remove banks' toxic assets will revive economic growth, reducing the safety appeal of the US currency .Extending Asian session's downtrend, the euro declined to new multi-day lows against the British pound and the Swiss franc after the German newspaper Bild reported today that German government forecast the largest Euro zone economy to shrink this year. . The German government forecast the largest Euro zone economy to contract in the range of 4% to 4.5% this year, the German newspaper. pound gained against its major counterparts. Annual inflation is forecast to ease to 2.6% in February from 3% last month. Meanwhile, retail prices are expected to drop 0.7% annually, following a 0.1% rise in January. The yen fell to a five-month low against the euro as U.S. plans to help banks dispose of toxic assets spurred investor appetite for higher-yielding currencies.

AUD GAINED

The Australian Dollar was one of the main gainers overnight as improved risk sentiment saw the pair surge above the Key 0.7000 level. . Base metals also rallied and this underpinned the commodity currency further.
Tech view
AUD R1: 0. 7130 S1:0.6990
R2: 0.7140 S2: 0.6980
Chart pattern shows the currency to have sideways movement for the day. .Trading range is expected between 0.7010-0.7110levels .Stochastic is seen trending up giving indication of a bullish consolidation for the day.

YEN came under pressure

The Japanese Yen came under severe pressure as stocks staged major rallies around the world. USD weakness kept USD/JPY under pressure initially but +5% gains overwhelmed .Looking ahead, February Trade Balance is forecast at -10.9 vs. -952.6.
Tech view
YEN R1: 98.40 S1:96.60
R2: 98.50 S2:96.50
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to have a upside movement for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 96.80-98.30.levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving room for a bullish correction.

EURO seen mixed

The Euro was mixed as profit taking hampered further gains and the market asked questions about the next move the ECB will make. Both cutting rates or QE from the ECB will lead to Euro weakness and may cap gains on the back of this equity rally. Looking ahead, March Services PMI is forecast at 39 vs. 39.2 previously. January Current Account also released previously at -7.3%.·
Tech view 24.03.09
EURO R1: 1.3760 S1:1.3550
R2: 1.3780 S2:1.3520
chart pattern indicates the currency to move on bull run for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3580-1.3740 levels for the day. Day Stochastic signals for slight downward correction for the day .Overall the currency is seen on buy side today.

he Rupee extended its rise for a fifth consecutive session

The Rupee extended its rise for a fifth consecutive session on as gains in other Asian stocks markets highlighted the renewal in global investor appetite for riskier assests ahead of the local share market open.
Tech view
USDINR is expected to range bound between 50.15-50.80 for the day. With good support seen at 50.00 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.90 levels and currency swings to depreciate further in near term . Stochastic signals the depreciation of the Indian unit in near term . currency is also seen trading below the moving average.

Rupee climbed on as rising Asian stock markets revived

Rupee climbed on as rising Asian stock markets revived hopes of capital inflows into the local share market.
tech view
USDINR is expected to range bound between 50.30-50.90 for the day. With good support seen at 50.20 levels and key resistance is seen at 51.00 levels and currency swings to depreciate further in near term .A short term trend of touching the support level is seen today. Stochastic is seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving average.

Australian dollar gained for a 10th day, its longest winning streak since October 2007

Australian dollar gained for a 10th day, its longest winning streak since October 2007, and the New Zealand currency also rose as stocks rallied on optimism U.S. plans to keep borrowing costs low will boost growth in the world’s largest economy
AUD R1: 0. 6880 S1:0.7010
R2: 0.6870 S2: 0.7030
Chart pattern gives bullish signals for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6900-0.6990 levels .Stochastic is seen trending up giving indication of a bullish consolidation for the day.

Japanese yen lost ground across the board

The Japanese yen lost ground across the board on Monday morning in Asia after a survey report by the Cabinet Office and Finance Ministry showed today that confidence among leaders of large Japanese companies worsened in the first three months of 2009 compared to the final three months of 2008.
YEN R1: 96.90 S1:95.50
R2: 97.10 S2:95.20
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to have a upside movement for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 95.60-96.80 levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving room for a bullish correction.

European majors remain range bound

European majors remain range bound, after failure to reach the 1.3700 Euro and 1.4500 the GBP While the U.S. has shock the currency markets with last FED minutes, ECB council member Axel Weber said the bank is poised to lower interest rates further to counter the worst recession since World War II in Europe
Technical analysis
EURO R1: 1.3760 S1:1.3550
R2: 1.3780 S2:1.3520
chart pattern indicates the currency to move on bull run for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3560-1.3740 levels for the day. Day Stochastic is seen in overbought levels and slight down consolidation would be seen near the support level .Overall the currency is seen on buy side today.
GBP R1: 1.4610 S1: 1. 4400
R2: 1.4620 S2: 1. 4390
chart pattern shows the currency to be on slight downward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4410-1.4600 levels for the day. Momentum is seen trending up indicating bull note but restricted to the resistance levels. The currency is seen trading above the moving average indicating the currency to be on buy side .

EVENING REPORT-MAR 20.

Rupee ends at 50.68 levels. Dollar/rupee rate in the non-deliverable forwards market plunged as traders sold the greenback noting its sharp fall against most Asian currenciesAn empty U.S. economic docket could leave the dollar at the mercy of the current bearish sentiment and the broader macro themes. The greenback continues to get punished as the Fed’s printing of money has caused it to lose its favor as a safe-haven. Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking in Phoenix today could impact risk sentiment of the central bank leader paints a dour or positive outlook for the U.S. economy. However, the remarks may have little impact on the dollar given the current momentum. Equity markets were flat in Europe and U.S. futures are pointing toward a lower open which could add some support for the dollar. Euro reached as high as 1.3728 in overnight trading as it bounced from an intraday low of 1.3615 at the start of the European session.. Euro-zone industrial production in February fell by 17.3% from a year ago which was a record amount. Activity dropped for a fifth consecutive month as a 6.0% declined in capital goods dragged the monthly reading lower by 3.5%. The dour fundamental data has started to weigh on the Euro as it lost 50 bps following the release. The recession in the Euro-zone continues to show signs of deepening, and with other central banks continuing to be aggressive with bringing their interest rates near zero and embarking on quantitative easing, many are calling for more action from European policy makers. The ECB was on the wires today with a "no comment" on whether a rescue plan was in place to prevent currency bloc members from going bankrupt. The statement came in response to remarks from German politician Otto Bernhardt, who stated in an interview that "there is a plan" and "we won’t let anyone go bust". Pound jumped over a 100 bps to 1.4591 when European markets open as volatility picked up after closed Japanese markets led to low volume during the Asian session. We have started to see Sterling give back some of those gains as concerns grow that the U.K.’s recession may deepen further. Indeed, the BoE chief economist Spencer Dale stated that a more prolonged downturn could not be ruled out despite "A substantial amount of the total contraction we're going to see has come through." He would go on to say that if inflationary pressure resumed that the central bank would need to reverse current quantitative easing efforts. Overall the interview was bullish with the country’s chief economist calling for a return to growth by the end if 2009 which was a source of earlier sterling gains. Japanese Yen has risen from 94.49 to 95.70

Yen rallied reacting to FOMC -Mar 20.

Japanese Yen also rallied against the dollar in reaction to the FOMC plan to buy bonds, coupled with repatriation of funds by Japanese businesses ahead of the end of year (Fiscal) on March 31st.

Technical Outlook:
R1: 95.30 S1:93.50
R2: 95.50 S2:93.30
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 93.60 – 95.20 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen flat and currency is expected to give a slight upward correction as profit booking for the fall.

Australian Dollar Strengthen as Commodity Prices Surge

Australian Dollar was boosted further by commodity prices as well as the plan by US to buy bonds expected to further widen the differential in the yield between the two respective economies. The Australian dollar has also gained from the shift in sentiment and a return to risky assets.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6960 S1:0.6740
R2: 0.6970 S2: 0.6720
Chart pattern signals bull note for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6750 - 0.6950 levels .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending up Currency has tested the upper bollingers and is expected to move further on bull note.

Euro and Pound rallied against dollar after the Federal Reserve ramped up currency supply-Mar 20.

Euro continued its buoyancy overnight trading above 1.3700 for the first time since January 2009 on bets the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy Treasuries will push down yields on U.S. assets and prompt investors to seek returns elsewhere. With the ECB’s reluctance to adopt a quantitative easing policy, flight to the single currency proved popular amongst investors.. Focus will shift to the EZ trade balance figures released on Friday with forecasts at -0.9 bln compared to the previous reading of -0.3 bln. Sterling traded above 1.4500 supported by the Fed plan to purchase bonds. Although the rally was subdued (relative to other majors) with views that the BoE plan to instill there own quantitative easing last week may counteract that of the FOMC.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3750 S1: 1.3520
R2: 13770 S2: 1.3500
Chart pattern hints towards a wide range of 1.3530-1.3730 levels for the day .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down and currency is seen on a sell off note as it has breached upper Bollingers and Relative market index is also pointing down.

GBP R1: 1.4560 S1: 1. 4360
R2: 1.4580 S2: 1. 4350
Chart pattern signals a small downward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4380-1.4550 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down and Currency is trading above the moving averages giving a caution signal.

Rupee inched up with inflow expectations-Mar 20.

Rupee inched up on expectations that a revival in foreign equity inflows will bolster the local unit. U.S. Dollar continued to lose ground on majors in further reaction to the Federal Reserve plan to buy US long term bonds, and purchase of mortgage backed securities. The FOMC decision to instill quantitative easing has eroded the attraction to the USD as a proxy for safe haven. In other data US Jobless clams fell by 12K to 646K over the last week whilst the Philly Fed survey improved to 35 from its previous reading of 41.3 for the month of March, indicating a deceleration in contraction of the manufacturing industry. In other news the IMF cut its global growth forecasts with views that the world economy will contract between 0.5% and 1% throughout 2009.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows a small downside correction for the day. With the trading range between 49.85-50.27 levels. With good support seen at 49.80 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.32 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down and the currency is expected to test the lower bollinger level of 49.85.But caution required as market trading at oversold area.

EVENING REPORT -MAR 19

The Rupee strengthened past 51 against the dollar.RBI is back to buying back illiquid paper and concerns of supplies remain. India's most widely watched inflation measure, rose 0.44 percent.Inflation headed towards zero.U.S dollar was slaughtered after the Fed’s announcement that it would buy $300 billion in ling-term debt to help spur lending in an effort to stimulate the economy. . We have started to see dollar strength overnight, but given that the central bank intends to start printing money we may see continued weakness for some time. Additionally, the action send equity markets higher and the increase in risk appetite will also be a weighing factor on the dollar. The fundamental calendar could dampen optimism as initial jobless claims are expected to be above 600,000 which are expected to push continuing claims to 5.323 million. Indeed, U.S. stock futures are pointing toward a lower open which could lend greenback support. An expected improvement in activity on the Philadelphia area could be overshadowed by the leading indicator reading which is forecasted to decline by 0.6%. Regardless, the actions by the government should continue to impact price action over the near-term, which could spell continued dollar weakness.Euro continues to find support as it is back above the 1.3500 price level despite falling to an intraday low of 1.3415. The single currency was unfazed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel stating the Germany has done enough stimuli after passing through two packages worth 81 billion euros.Pound has started to consolidate at 1.4287 against the dollar. Sterling reached as high as 1.4337 on the Fed’s announcement that it was purchasing long-term assets. Although, we saw profit taking during Asian trading which sent the pound/dollar to an intraday low of 1.4158, it has found support on a higher public borrowing report. Britons increased their use of credit by 9.0 billion which was a complete reversal of January’s -2.68 billion. This could be a sign that consumer confidence is returning and we may see an increase in consumption which could help spur domestic growth. The jump in lending is a sign that markets are improving and the BoE’ ongoing quantitative easing policy should continue to help loosen credit markets. Indeed the central bank today said that it was reviewing its current dollar repo program as market conditions are improving. The efforts o the government should help bring an end to the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression which has been an albatross for the economy. yen appreciated due to the weakness in global economic conditions.Japanese exports continued to drop. Further, production is expected to continue its ongoing fall, but the pace of decrease is forecast to moderate gradually as adjustment pressures on inventories wane.The annual rate of increase in consumer prices slowed to zero, reflecting the declines in the prices of petroleum products and the stabilization of food prices. Bank of Japan maintained its economic assessment by saying that economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in Japan.

Yen had a bear note-Mar 19.

Japanese Yen had a mixed day gaining heavily against the USD but losing ground against the Euro. USD/JPY slid to support around 95.70 before consolidating while the crosses grinded higher with EUR/JPY testing 130 in early Asia. The BOJ held rates at 0.1% but also announced a series of measures to help support the bond market .

Technical Outlook:

R1: 96.90 S1:95.20
R2: 97.00 S2:95.00
Yen chart pattern indicates downside trend for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 95.40 – 96.80 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending up for the near term and currency is trading below the moving average restricting the uptrend.

Euro biggest gainer and sterling came under pressure-Mar 19.

Euro was the biggest mover in the markets gaining over 3% after the key level 1.3080 was broken and the FOMC announced plans to Quantitative Ease. With stocks also rallying it was the perfect storm for the Euro out pacing other currencies. EUR/GBP was especially buoyant with resistance at 95 needed to halt the advance. Sterling came under heavy selling pressure early in the European session breaking below 1.4000 as UK data continued to disappoint. February Claimant count change jumped to 134K vs. 84.5K. MPC minutes showed 9-0 vote to cut although concern about setting rates too low could mean further cuts are unlikely. The FOMC trumped all other considerations and Cable surged to 1.43. Looking ahead for March CBI Orders forecast at -55 vs. -56 previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3580 S1:1.3280
R2: 13590 S2:1.3250
Chart pattern hints towards a small downside correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3290-1.3570 levels for the day. Currency has breached the upper Bollinger level and is expected to test 1.3302 levels. Weekly charts are pointing further bullishness to 1.3750.Stochastic is also pointing down giving consolidation signals.

GBP R1: 1.4370 S1: 1. 4120
R2: 1.4390 S2: 1. 4100
Chart pattern signals a mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4140-1.4360 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up and Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note But parabolic is giving a caution.

Indian Rupee climbs past 51/dlr on equity inflows-Mar 19.

Indian Rupee strengthened past 51 per dollar boosted by firmer Asian stock markets and a weakening dollar U.S. Dollar in a major market event the FOMC made the announcement that they would be buying $300bn in US Treasuries and $750bn mortgage backed securities. They maintained the Interest Rate at 0-0.25% whilst CPI (Feb) gained 0.4% as expected. The USD was crushed after the FOMC announcement dropping over 2% across the board. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 650K vs. 654K previously. Philly Fed (March) forecast at -38 vs. -41.3.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows the movement in a narrow band with the trading range between 50.50-51.15 levels. support is seen at 50.40 and key resistance is seen at 51.20.Stochastic is seen trending down and the currency is also trading below the moving averages confirming a downward correction.

Evening Report-Mar 18.

Indian Rupee closed on a strong note at 51.29 levels boosted by a more than 2.5 percent rise in the local share market which helped to ease the concerns of capital outflows but a stronger dollar overseas prevented a sharper rally. For U.S. Economy the consumer price report and FOMC rate decision due today and will present significant event risk and could spark volatility. Inflation is expected to have remained unchanged at 0.0% in February which may put an end to deflation concerns and return the focus to the upside risks. Fears are growing that as the government pumps the system full of money that it will give rise to future price pressures. Therefore the report will become an area of focus for the FOMC as determines future interest rate policy. Today the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25% as it has little room for further easing. Until growth returns or inflationary pressure increase, we may see interest rates remain at low levels over the medium term. However, expectations are that the MPC will announce that they will increase their efforts to stimulate the economy that could include buying more treasuries or mortgages. The central bank has been debating whether to increase money supply or to target specific credit markets. Regardless Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to lower growth expectations for the economy and project that unemployment will rise to as high as 10%. However if the future efforts of the committee are well received then a continuation of rising risk appetite and a weaker greenback is possible. Euro reached as high as 1.3068 during Asian trading on the back of comments from ECB President Trichet, which forecasted a recovery for the Euro-Zone by 2010. However, the expectations of dour fundamental data from the U.K. and a gloomy outlook from the FOMC started to fuel risk aversion which led to the Euro falling briefly back below 1.3000 before regaining support. Pound fell to as low as 1.3865 after the U.K. Employment report showed jobless claims rose by a record high 138,400. The increasing unemployment rolls sent the claimant count rate to 4.3% which was the highest since 1999. Meanwhile, the release of the Bank of England minutes showed that they voted 9-0 to cut their benchmark rate by 0.50% at their last policy meeting. The central bank was also unanimous in deciding to print £75 billion in order to buy government bonds. The MPC said the scale of the purchases needs to target CPI as it still see it at risk for undershooting their 2% target. The BoE also forecasted that growth in the first quarter could be a dismal as the fourth quarter of 2008 which contracted by 1.5%. However, if the dismal employment report fails to sink the pound further then we could see another attempt at the technical level and a break above could lead to an extended rally higher. USD/JPY continues to consolidate above the 98.00 price level .The BoJ left their rates unchanged at 0.10% as expected but announced that it will increase its government bond purchases to 1.8 trillion Yen. Meanwhile, Prime Minister is preparing the country’s third stimulus package as the economy is shrinking by double digits and continues to be hurt by the drop in global demand. The Yen was little changed on the news as markets had started pricing in the increased buying after the SNB launched their own efforts.

Australian Dollar Near One-Month High-Mar 18.

Australian Dollar broke above 0.6600, running up to the resistance at 0.6640 before running out of steam. AUD is supported by stronger commodities and is taking full advantage of the recent improvement in investor confidence to build a base at the 0.6300 level.

Technical Outlook

R1: 0. 6650 S1:0.6560
R2: 0.6660 S2: 0.6540
Chart pattern signals a small downward correction for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6580 - 0.6640 levels .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down. Currency has tested the upper bollingers and is expected to give a downward correction.

Euro and Pound picking up bullish mometum-Mar 18.

Euro closed above 1.3000 as the market consolidated the recent strength and EUR/JPY grinded higher tracking the Stock market. Some focus on ECB stark with bullish comments that the rate cutting cycle may be at an end and that a 0% rate policy may do more harm then good. German Zew Current conditions (March) at -89 was slightly better than -90 forecast. . Looking ahead, ECB President Trichet speaks. Sterling traded under 1.4000 briefly as the markets sold the pound on news in the Financial Times that the UK may lose another 1 Million jobs. Speculation that the BoE will begin buying Bonds also adding to bearish mood in Early Europe. Buoyant stocks finally won the battle and pair finished roughly where it began. Looking ahead for January ILO is forecast at 6.5% vs. 6.3% currently. Also MPC minutes are released forecast at 9-0.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3100 S1:1.2940
R2: 13120 S2:1.2920
Chart pattern hints towards a mixed outlook for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2950-1.3080 levels for the day. Currency is trading well above the moving average giving bullish outlook but the Momentum is getting weakened giving indication for a downward correction.

GBP R1: 1.4090 S1: 1. 3950
R2: 1.4110 S2: 1. 3930
Chart pattern signals a bullish correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3980-1.4070 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up and Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note But parabolic is giving a caution

Indian rupee gains tracking stocks rise, weak dlr-Mar 18.

The Rupee rose in early trade but is expected to trade in a range as the market awaiting the stock market movement for further cues. U.S. Dollar stayed range bound for most of the day but ended on a weak footing as stocks ended at month highs. Construction stocks soared as February Housing Stocks rallied 22% to 583K vs. 450K forecast. PPI (Feb) gained 0.2% vs. 0.1% forecast. Oil found ongoing support as it trades close to the $50 a barrel level. Looking ahead for CPI (Feb) are forecast to rise 0.4%. Q4 Current Account is forecast at -137Bn vs. -174Bn previously. Also the FOMC meet today and are expected to remain on hold although the statement may contain clues as to further stimulus plans.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows the movement in a narrow band with the trading range between 51.17-51.50 levels for the day. With Good support seen at 51.15 levels and key resistance is seen at 51.60.Stochastic is seen trending down and the currency is also trading below the moving averages confirming a downward correction.

Yen under pressure as BOJ Boosts Debt Buying -Mar 18.

Japanese Yen continued to be under pressure as the increase in risk appetite spilled over into Yen selling. USD/JPY traded towards 99 although gains were limited by Dollar weakness. . Looking ahead, BOJ meet today and will possibly discuss further steps to support the economy.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 98.90 S1:97.50
R2: 99.00 S2:97.40
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.80 – 98.80 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is trading on the moving average keeping silent on the trend.

EVENING REPORT-MAR 17

Indian Rupee closed at 51.48 levels erasing gains after climbing to its highest in more than two weeks earlier as a drop in local shares renewed concerns of further capital outflows. Dollar has remained supported through overnight trading as recent risk appetite has started to wane. Confidence is increasing that the banking sector troubles will start to disappear as the global efforts to reinforce them take hold, but traders remain cautiously optimistic. The consensus is that governments still need to do more in particular the FOMC. Expectations are that the central bank following their two day meeting will announce more aggressive measures to increase monetary expansion. Markets have started to focus on credit card defaults after American Express announced that write offs in February rose 8.7%. These concerns have weighed on European equity markets and could carry over to the U.S. today, which could add further greenback support. Producer prices will cross the wires and is expected to show an annualized decline of 1.4% after a 1.0% drop in January. The drop in factory gate costs will allow the Fed to continue to expand its balance sheet with it concerns of fueling near-term inflation. Meanwhile housing starts are expected to have fallen to an all-time low of 450,000 as tight credit markets have sunk demand and discourage new construction. Euro was trading below the 1.300 price level for most of overnight trading on the back of declining equity markets, before an unexpected increase in theGerman Zew print sent the EUR/USD to as high as 1.3022. Indeed investor confidence rose for a second month to -3.5 from -5.8 in March despite ongoing concerns over the banking system and a deepening recession for the country. However the survey did show a decline in the current assessment as things continue to worsen in the region. The improvement in sentiment and stabilizing prices will take some of the pressure off of the ECB which has come under scrutiny for not acting aggressive enough. As other central banks have brought their lending rates near zero and have embarked on off balance sheet efforts the ECB remains committed to their measured approach. Pound fell to an intraday low of 1.4017 as declining risk appetite has pressured the currency. Additionally, the ongoing quantitative easing efforts remain a drag on Sterling. The pound’s reaction to tomorrow’s U.K. employment report will give us a clue to future price action as it is expected to show the economy lost another 84,000 jobs. Meanwhile, U.K. house price falling another 11.5% according to the DCLG U.K. house price index shows that the central bank will need to remain committed to their efforts in order to stabilize the housing market. Sterling has started to find some support after the better than expected German investor confidence survey .USD/JPY declined against the majors but its attempt to rally was short lived, after a timid entry at levels above 98.85 resistance level.Bank of Japan decided to explore a new framework for providing subordinated loans to banks in order to ensure smooth functioning of financial intermediation and the stability of the financial system.

Aussie on a bull run ahead of rate desicion-Mar 17.

Australian Dollar broke above 0.6600, running up to the resistance at 0.6640 before running out of steam. AUD is supported by stronger commodities and is taking full advantage of the recent improvement in investor confidence to build a base at the 0.6300 level. Looking ahead for RBA minutes for the March minutes.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6650 S1:0.6550
R2: 0.6670 S2: 0.6540
Chart pattern signals mixed outlook for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6560 - 0.6640 levels. Parabolic and stochastic are raising keeping bull trend intact but caution is given by falling momentum.

Japanese Yen received a boost from the stock rally-Mar 17.

Japanese Yen held to a tight range against the USD but the crosses all rose testing monthly highs on the AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY. The 100 Yen is a significant level that the market would need a major catalyst to test and remain above. February Tertiary Industry Index at 0.4% vs. -1.6% previously.

Technical Outlook:
R1: 98.90 S1:97.80
R2: 99.10 S2:97.60
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways to bear note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.90 – 98.80 levels .Momentum is seen trending down and parabolic is also supporting the same but caution is given by Stochastic.

Euro Rises as Equities Rally and Sterling also extended its gains-Mar 17.

Euro tested the critical 1.3000 level but was unable to close above as stocks retreated at the close of New York. Commodities continue to underpin Euro rise and concern about Americas Quantitative Easing plans have hurt the dollars demand. Looking ahead for German Zew Economic Sentiment is forecast at -90 vs. -86 previously .Sterling traded under 1.4000 briefly on Monday morning after Oil opened $2 lower on OPEC news before a strong rebound in Oil and sentiment dragged cable towards 1.4200.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3100 S1:1.2900
R2: 13120 S2:1.2890
Chart pattern hints towards a bullish outlook for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2910-1.3080 levels for the day. Currency is trading well above the moving average giving bullish outlook and momentum and parabolic are also supporting the same but caution required as currency is trading on the upper bollinger level.

GBP R1: 1.4250 S1: 1. 4010
R2: 1.4260 S2: 1. 3980
Chart pattern signals a bullish correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4020-1.4240 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up and Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note.

Rupee marginally up; eyes stx for cues-Mar 17.

Indian Rupee was slightly higher in early trade with the market looking to equities open for fresh cues but gains in other regional currencies in seen supporting the local unit. U.S. Dollar weakened as stocks around the world remained very buoyant and US stocks tried to rally for a 5th day. Default concerns from Amex kept this event from eventuating but still most of the majors held on to gains. US Industrial Production fell -1.4% vs. -1.2% forecast. NY Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -38 vs. -32 forecast. Looking ahead for February Industrial Output is forecast at -1.2% vs. -1.8%. Also released NY Fed Manufacturing forecast at -32 vs. -34.65 previously.

Technical Outlook:
USDINR chart pattern gives an indication of the possibility of a bear note for the day. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 51.10-51.50 levels for the day. Good support is seen at 51.05 and break of which will pull the Indian Unit below 51 levels. Key resistance is seen at 51.60 levels. Stochastic is also seen trending down supporting the bear note.

Evening Report-Mar 16.

The Rupee closed at 51.41/42 per dollar supported by gains in the local share market and a weaker dollar overseas. A pick up n risk appetite in Asian and European trading sessions has led to dollar weakness. U.S. futures are pointing toward a higher open which could lead to continued dollar bearish sentiment. Net Long-term TIC flows are expected to have increased to 45.0 billion from 34.8 billion which could spark bullish sentiment as it will demonstrate the continued appetite for dollar denominated assets. Additionally, industrial production in the U.S. is forecasted to have fallen by another 1.3% following a 1.8% decline in January. The drop in activity will push out expectations for a U.S. recovery and could weigh on equity markets adding potential greenback support. Yet, Fed Chairman’s Ben Bernanke’s prediction in his 60 minutes interview last night that the recession will end by 2010 may overshadow the data releases and sustain support for U.S. equities. Another potential negative dollar factor could be the increasing speculation that the Fed will start to increase money supply after the success in the U.K.. Dollar tumbled to its lowest level in almost 5-weeks against the Euro as reduced concerns over the financial sector lessened demand for the safety of the US currency.Price pressure in the Euro-Zone increased 0.4% in February, which raised the headline reading to1.2% from a 10-year low of 1.1% in January, while the core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, accelerated to 1.7% from 1.6 in the previous month. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that the labor market in the euro-region contracted at a record pace in the fourth quarter as employment slipped another 0.3% during the three-months through December after dropping 0.1% in the third quarter, which lower the annual rate to 0.0% from a revised reading of 0.6%. Despite the minor uptick in inflation, price growth in the Euro-Zone remains well below the 2% target held by the ECB, and as the central bank holds a dour outlook for growth and inflation, policy makers are likely to employ all of their available tools in an effort to soften the landing of the economy.British pound is likely to face increased selling pressure as BoE’s successful purchase of Gilts has helped lower borrowing cost and is expected to help spur lending to business and consumers. Expect more initiates to be forthcoming as Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged that the recent G-20 meeting will produce results including global regulation to ensure the recent problems don’t repeat themselves. Meanwhile, Rightmove Home prices remained near record low levels as they increased 0.9% in March which signals that the housing market is far from recovering which could limit bullish sentiment. Greenback strengthened to 98.51 against YEN But the dollar-yen pair bounced between 97.99 and 98.43 during early European deals. Financial markets also look ahead to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan policy meetings this week

Japanese Yen weakened-Mar 16.

Japanese Yen weakened across the board as stocks lifted for a 4th day and crosses pushed higher. January Industrial output was revised down -10.2% vs. -10.0% initially.
Technical Outlook

R1: 99.20 S1:97.00
R2: 99.30 S2:96.90
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways to bull note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.10 – 99.00 levels . Stochastic is trending up and currency is trading above the moving average giving bullish crossovers.

Euro orbited the 1.2900 and sterling too bullish in daily charts-Mar 16.

Euro orbited the 1.2900 level but struggled to make further gains with profit taking and heavy resistance above 1.2950 discouraging attempts higher. January Euro zone Retail Sales rose 0.1% vs. 0.2% forecast. . Looking ahead, February Inflation is forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.8%. Also today ECB Trichet Speaks. Sterling with no data out on Friday the GBP took its cue from the share market pushing higher back above 1.4000.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2990 S1:1.2810
R2: 13020 S2:1.2790
Chart pattern hints towards a mixed outlook for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2820-1.2980 levels for the day. Currency is trading well above the moving average giving bullish outlook but the Momentum is getting weakened at 1.2988 levels giving indication for a downward correction.

GBP R1: 1.4120 S1: 1. 3930
R2: 1.4140 S2: 1. 3900
Chart pattern signals a bullish correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3940-1.4110 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up and Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note.

Rupee off 2-wk high as importers buy dollars-Mar 16.

Rupee strengthened against US dollar today as banks sold the greenback anticipating inflows from foreign funds on views bullish local shares Dollar selling emerged in opening trade as overall sentiment improved following the rise in global shares. Firm Asian currencies against the greenback also prompted banks to sell dollars .Dollar/rupee futures were down tracking spot market .U.S. Dollar closed the week on the back foot as the stock market rally continued for a 4th day and investors pared back safe haven demand for the USD. The Trade balance was better than expected in January rising to -36Bn vs. -39.9B previously. Of concern for the Dollar comments by Chinese Premier Wen about the safety of US assets which prompted a reassuring response from Obama over the weekend. Looking ahead for February Industrial Output is forecast at -1.2% vs. -1.8%. Also released, NY Fed Manufacturing forecast at -32 vs. -34.65 previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern gives an indication of the possibility of small bullish correction before a fall. Currency is expected to test the upper range of 51.63 levels and then give consolidation to 51.17 levels. Good support is seen at 51.10 and key resistance for the currency is seen at 51.70 levels. Strength indicator is stochastic is pointing down confirming the bear note.

EVENING REPORT-MAR 13.

The Indian rupee extended gains on as a 4 percent rise in the domestic share market helped ease outflow worries with the dollar's drop against some Asian currencies also boosting the local unit.The dollar continued to lose ground overnight as risk appetite grew on the back of comments from Bank of America CEO and expectations of more stimulus measures from Japan and China. Indeed, the troubled bank leader is expecting earnings of $50 billion for the year which reinforced comments from Citibank that t would be profitable in the first quarter. Stock markets have continued to find support as the end of the banking troubles gets closer. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey could dampen optimism as forecasts are calling for the reading to fall to an all-time low of 55.0. If Americans continue to retrench it will limit future domestic growth and weigh on earrings expectations. The U.S. trade balance is also expected to cross the wires with the deficit expected to shrink to -$38.0 billion from -$38.9 billion which would be the lowest in six years. The contraction n consumer consumption is expected to have impacted demand for imports despite the dollar’s recent strength. The Euro fell to as low as 1.2890 after the release before finding support.the Euro began trading heavy leading up to the January Retail Sales Report. Consumer consumption in the region rose by 0.1% which was below the forecast of 0.2%. Additionally, the annualized rate fell for eighth month to -2.2% after a revised lower -2.4% the month prior. Consumers continue to tighten their wallets as a deepening recession has weighed on their confidence..The dollar also came under pressure versus the sterling, falling to 1.4060 from an overnight level near 1.3900.The Pound extended its gains from yesterday reaching as high 1.4071 as rising equity markets helped buoy demand. . However, the remarks from BoE member Kate Barker that the central bank should continue to print money as “The evidence over the last month was of more pronounced weakness in the global economy and of fragility in the financial markets” could weigh on the pound.Japanese yen tumbled to new multi-month lows against the euro, the kiwi and the aussie as a gain in equities boosted investors' risk appetite, dampening demand for the yen. n carry trades, speculators get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher returns, earning the spread between the two. The risk is currency fluctuations erase profits between the two rates.

Yen seen on a bullish note.-Mar 13.

Japanese Yen had an extremely volatile day with traders buying Yen aggressively in Asia before the sharp reversal in risk sentiment in the US saw it give up most of its gains. Q4 GDP was revised slightly better to -3.2% vs. -3.3% initial. Crosses were very well supported as the majors gained aggressively. Looking ahead for January Industrial Output previously at -10%.

Technical Outlook

R1: 98.20 S1:97.00
R2: 98.30 S2:96.90
Yen chart pattern indicates bear note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.10 – 98.10 levels . Stochastic is trending down and currency is trading below the moving average giving bearish crossovers. Momentum is giving a caution signal.

Sterling had a volatile day and Euro has bullish momemtum-Mar 13.

Euro broke higher following stocks to breach 1.2900. Earlier in Europe some weakness was seen as China released some further poor news. Underpinning the move higher was the large move in Oil up over 9%. Looking ahead for January Retail Sales forecast 0.2% vs. 0% previously. Also, February German WPI previously at -0.4%. Sterling had a volatile day as selling into early Europe tested the downside before the equity rally reversed direction violently and the pair finished above 1.3900. GBP/CHF surged over 600 points.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3010 S1:1.2830
R2: 13030 S2:1.2820
Chart pattern hints a upward correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2840-1.2990 levels for the day. Currency is trading well above the moving average giving bullish crossover. Long term trend indicator Momentum and stochastic are confirming the outlook.

GBP R1: 1.3980 S1: 1. 3840
R2: 1.4010 S2: 1. 3830
Chart pattern signals sideways to downward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3850-1.3970 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down and Currency is trading between the moving average only a break on either sides can confirm trend.

Rupee appreciated-Mar 13.

Rupee appreciated by 16 paise against the US currency in opening trade following selling of dollars by banks and exporters on expectations of further recovery in the domestic bourses in line with firming Asian markets .U.S. Dollar experienced another wave of weakness against most of the majors as Wall St rallied for the 3rd day. US Retail Sales were better than expected at -0.1% vs. -0.5% forecast. Weekly Jobless claims at 650K continue to be weak. The exception to USD strength was the Swiss Franc which fell heavily after the SNB cut rates and stated their intention to start Quantitative Easing. Looking ahead for International Trade Balance for January forecast to fall to -38Bln vs. -39.8Bln previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows a narrow trade for the day .Currency has a good support at 51.50 levels but if the support level is broken and is able to sustain below the level then the second support level would be at 51.35 .Upper range remains at 51.78 and break above it would add bullish momentum to the currency and would take it to the resistance level of 51.95 levels.

Evening Reort-March 12.

Indian Rupee pared some of its gains on afternoon and closed at 51.84 levels as importers bought the U.S. unit, but gains in domestic shares continued to help sentiment. Inflation rose to 2.43 percent and factory output data were largely in line with expectations and thus failed to have any large impact on the rupee. India's industrial output fell 0.5 percent The non-deliverable dollar was off lows in line with the movement in the spot market .The fall in NDF rate is spurring receiving in the forwards. Besides banks were also booking profits as premiums had risen sharply. U.S. Dollar has been receiving support overnight as global recession concerns have sparked an increase in risk aversion. If we see U.S. equity markets reverse recent gains then dollar bullish sentiment may continue. The U.S. advance retail sales is expected to show demand fell by 0.5% after January’s unexpected 1.0% gain, as a weak labor market weighed on demand. Indeed, the expected increase in initial jobless claims to 644,000 demonstrates that the job losses continue to mount is expected to negatively impact domestic growth over the near-term. This could lower earnings expectations and send equity traders back to the sidelines today. However, a consecutive month of improving consumer consumption may reignite risk appetite which could lead to dollar weakness. Euro fell to an intra day low of 1.2730 as equity markets started trading lower on further contraction in the Japanese growth report which reignited global growth concerns. The ECB in its March monthly report predicted that inflation will remain “well below” its 2% target for the next two years. This was reinforced by factory gate prices unexpectedly falling 0.5% in January on an annualized basis led by the 0.8% drop during the month. Energy costs fell another 1.5% in the month as falling commodity costs remain a drag on inflation. Yen has gained over 300 bps against the dollar in the past two days despite the final 4Q GDP figures showing further contraction than the initial readings. Japanese growth declined by 13.4% which was the lowest since 1974 led by a sharp decline in exports and business spending. Despite the figures reigniting risk aversion the Yen continued to gain against the dollar which could be a sign that the currency is regaining its safe-haven status. Pound fell to 1.3725 as it gave back most of yesterday’s gains as it was sunk by the dimming global outlook. Sterling had reached as high as 1.3925 as the BoE’s initial quantitative easing efforts were successful. The central bank’s entry into bonds markets drove Gilt prices higher and significantly lowered yields which should help spark increased borrowing. Tight lending standards have sunk the housing market and choked the economy. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations for the next twelve months fell to 2.1% from 2.8% for the quarter ending in February. Since the BoE has started to print money inflation expectations will become a concern as the upside risks to price pressure may increase as the pump money into the system.

Australian Dollar volatile with the China story hurting -Mar 12.

Australian Dollar had a volatile trading day with the China story hurting the pair pulling it back to support at 0.6400. Buoyant stocks helped the pair to recover off lows and heavy USD selling saw the 0.6500 level achieved. Consumer Sentiment dropped -0.2% in March vs. February. Looking ahead for Unemployment Change for February is forecast at -21.2K vs. 1.2K previously. February Unemployment is forecast at 5% vs. 4.8%.UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE +1.8K. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.2%.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6560 S1:0.6410
R2: 0.6570 S2: 0.6390
Chart pattern signals bullish movement for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6420 - 0.6540 levels Stochastic is trending up giving bullish outlook and parabolic which is seen trending up but caution is given by falling momentum.

Yen responded to USD weakness -Mar 12.

Japanese Yen responded to USD weakness with USD/JPY pulling back to 97.20 but most of the crosses remained relatively unchanged. The market is decidedly less bullish after the failure at 100 last week and stock market movements should again begin to direct movement. Looking ahead for Q4 GDP forecast to be unchanged at -3.3%

Technical Outlook:

R1: 96.80 S1:95.30
R2: 96.90 S2:95.20
Yen chart pattern indicates bear note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 95.50 – 96.70 levels .Stochastic is giving a bearish crossovers. And Momentum is also trending down supporting the outlook .Currency is seen trading below the moving average giving confirmation to the downward trend.

Euro and Sterling gained Bullish Momentum-Mar 12.

Euro broke 1.28 and closed above the key level in a very bullish day for the single currency. Euro strength was in spite of some very weak data with German January Industrial Orders falling -8% vs. -2.2% forecast. Looking ahead for EU PPI is forecast at -0.2% in January. German January Industrial Output is forecast at -3% vs. -4.6% previously. Sterling attempted to rally as the USD weakened but found it tough as the market only grudgingly buys the pound. The January Trade Balance was slightly worse than expected at -7.7Bn vs. -7.5Bn. EUR/GBP buying kept the cable under 1.3900.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2930 S1:1.2740
R2: 1.2950 S2:1.2720
Chart pattern hints a small upward correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2750-1.2910 levels for the day. Currency is trading well above the moving average giving bullish crossover. Long term trend indicator Momentum is confirming the outlook but stochastic is flat giving a neutral outlook.

GBP R1: 1.3960 S1: 1. 3750
R2: 1.4010 S2: 1. 3730
Chart pattern signals small mixed signals for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3770-1.3950 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are flat and Currency is trading on the the moving average only a break on either sides can confirm trend.

Rupee appreciated on expectations of fresh capital inflows -Mar 12.

Indian rupee appreciated by 38 paise against the US currency in early trade on expectations of fresh capital inflows by foreign funds into domestic stock markets U.S. Dollar accelerated the weakness seen yesterday as rays of hope emerged and global stock markets remained buoyant. During the Asian session there was a slight reprieve for the dollar as news emerged that China’s Exports in February dropped -25% vs. a milder -5% forecast. Looking ahead for Weekly Claims are forecast at 645K vs. 639K previously. February Retail Sales are forecast at -0.5% vs. 1.0% previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows a narrow trade for the day .Currency has a good support at 51.40 levels but if the support level is broken and is able to sustain below the level then the second support level would be at 51.17 .Upper range remains at 51.70 and break above it would add bullish momentum to the currency and would take it to the resistance level of 51.90 levels.

Evening report mar 11

U.S. Dollar Trading weakened as the US stock market staged a 5% rally after Citigroup reported that the first 2 months of 2009 were profitable. Bernanke also spoke about banking reform and suggested changes to mark to market accounting procedures would benefit the current situation. · The Euro surged higher as stocks soared in Europe and Asia. Solid selling above 1.28 proved too big a hurdle for one day and the pair pulled back to supports at 1.2650. Euro weakness is still a theme that will require some time to turn around. · The Japanese Yen most of the crosses were very buoyant even as USD/JPY slumped on USD weakness. Leading Indicators fell 2.3% vs. -2% forecast. Equity market effects on the Yen are still pronounced but significantly less than previously. Sterling rallied with the pick up in risk appetite early Europe but weakness returned as the market remains concerned about the UK economy. Industrial Production fell -2.6% vs. -1.2%. As buying pressure waned the market sent the cable back to 1.3700. The U.K. currency dropped for a third day versus the 16- nation currency as the Bank of England prepared to print money to buy assets as part of a quantitative easing policy.
·

evening report

A relatively empty economic calendar will leave dollar price action up to the broader macro trends. Risk appetite has slightly picked up which has weighed on the dollar during overnight trading. Wholesale inventories are due for release and are expected to have declined by another 1.0% in January after a 1.4% decline the month prior. The declining expectations for demand have led to a massive reduction in production which is starting to decrease supplies. As goods increasingly grow scarce and dollars become more plentiful as the government pumps them into the system, the risks of inflation will grow. Therefore the central bank may need to reverse their recent easing as soon as growth begins to return to avoid historic increases in prices. Fed Chairman is scheduled to speak today on bank regulation and if the markets don’t like what he has to say, it could negatively impact demand for stocks and lead to dollar weakness. Euro accumulated over 100bps in gains through overnight trading as equity markets looked to rebound after a week of risk aversion. The first increase inGerman consumer prices added further evidence that prices are beginning to stabilize. However, the remainder of the economic docket provided more evidence that the European recession is deepening. Indeed, German exports fell by 4.4% which was the fourth straight month of weakness, which led to an increase in the trade balance to 8.5 billion from 7.3 billion. Meanwhile, French manufacturing fell 4.1% in January bringing the annualized decline to 16.5%. A 15% drop in consumer goods was the main cause of the decline as the deepening recession continues to lead to consumers retrenching. ECB is ready to reduce rates further, even to zero.. Although the increase in German prices makes that scenario less likely, a drop in Chinese prices could filter through to the global economy and raise those concerns again. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Axel Weber is on the worse stating that the German economy is expected to be hit worse than expected by the global downturn .Pound has regained its footing after whipsaw action following a manufactering production dropped. Activity fell 2.9% in January dragging the annualized rate to -12.8% signaling that the U.K. economy may see a deeper than expected contraction in the first quarter. An 18% drop in metals led the way as the global recession has destroyed demand for raw materials. . However if we see a reversal in risk appetite then the dismal fundamental data could see a return of recent bearish pound sentiment. Yen weakened as advances in stocks curbed demand from investors seeking a refuge from the global financial turmoil. Japanese currency fell and snapped two days of gains versus the dollar as the MSCI World Index climbed for the first time in four days and U.S. stock futures rose.

Evening Report-Mar 09.

Rupee was trading rangebound on back of choppy stocks and dollar weakness overseas.Currency was volatile in early trade as banks sold dollars tracking its weakness against majors overseas currencies.An empty economic docket will leave U.S. dollar price action in the hands of broader economic trends. Global equity markets remain suppressed and the prevailing risk aversion will remain supportive for the dollar. Indeed, the IMF predicted that the global economy will sink into its first recession since WWII. The World Bank also warned that the crisis could push 46 million people into poverty as 94 out of 116 developing countries have been hit by the downturn. The deteriorating conditions in emerging markets will most likely lead to political unrest which could lead to more safe-havens flows into the dollar which could remain a supportive factor over the medium term. U.S. equity markets are near critical support levels which could lead to a rebound. An increase in risk appetite would put the dollar at risk for a retracement during the week. However, Republican lawmakers calling for the government to let GM fall into bankruptcy will keep investors cautious until the U.S. auto industry troubles come to a conclusion. Risk sentiment should continue to dictate dollar sentiment as the only significant fundamental event risk on the week is February retail sales on Thursday. Euro traded heavy throughout the overnight session as equity markets were negatively impacted by the U.K. banking troubles and the IMF’s forecast of a global recession. Troubles in Eastern Europe also remain a weighing factor for the Euro as the World Bank report highlighted the troubles in emerging markets. Meanwhile, the Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence indicator fell to its lowest level . The gauge fell to -42.7 from -36 as the current conditions component dropped to -59.75. The outlook has also dimmed with expectations falling to -23.5 from -18.25, its first decline in four months. The deepening recession and the prevailing banking global banking troubles have offset another rate cut be the ECB.Pound fell below 1.3900 as U.K. bank names continue to take a hit on the back of the government increasing its stake in Lloyds Banking Group. The UK Treasury intends to increase its share of LBG from 43% to 65%, in return for insuring toxic loans worth GBP 260bn via the Asset Protection Scheme. The banking sector was down 9% in early trading which has been a weighing factor for the pound sending it to test 1.3850. BoE has been given the authority to start quantitative easing and is expected to print £150 billion to buy assets in attempt to revive the lending and the economy. Yen declined against the dollar as Japan posted its first trade deficit in 13 years, reducing the currency’s appeal as a haven. Government also reported Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 844.4 billion yen in January, along with a 1,100.2 billion yen deficit in trade of goods and services.

Yen was extremely volatile with USD weakness -Mar 09.

Japanese Yen was extremely volatile with USD weakness and slumping stocks sending the pair back under 97 before a late Equity rally and saw both the USD/JPY and crosses ending higher. Looking ahead, January Current Account previously at -92.1%.

Technical Outlook:
R1: 98.70 S1:97.50
R2: 98.90 S2:97.30
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways movement for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.70 – 98.60 levels .Stochastic and Momentum are seen trending down only crossovers can confirm the view and currency is seen trading between the moving average giving sideways outlook.

Sterling tracked the Euro higher but fell off-Mar 09.

Euro Rumors of a terrible Non Farm number saw the Euro surge from 1.2560 to 1.2700 in Europe. New stock market lows saw the Euro fall off the 1.2700 level. Supporting the Euro was the large rally in Oil on speculation OPEC will cut at their next meeting. Looking ahead for March Sentix is forecast at -38 vs. -36 previously. Sterling tracked the Euro higher but fell off the 1.4300 level to ending 1.41 as the BOE plan to Quantitative Ease left sentiment fragile at best. February PPI jumped 0.6% vs. 0.1% forecast.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2750 S1:1.2570
R2: 1.2780 S2:1.2560
Chart pattern hints a small upward correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2590-1.2740 levels for the day. Currency is trading between the moving average giving mixed outlook . Long term trend indicator Momentum and stochastic are seen pointing up hinting towards a small upward correction before the fall.

GBP R1: 1.4160 S1: 1. 3970
R2: 1.4180 S2: 1. 3950
Chart pattern signals small bearish correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3980-1.4150 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish signals but Currency is trading above the the moving average giving a caution signal.

Rupee weakened in early trade-Mar 09.

Rupee weakened in early trade as losses in other regional markets raised expectations of more capital outflows from local shares but the dollar's weakness against majors is seen averting a sharp drop. U.S. Dollar traded with the expected large range due to the Non farm Payroll release. The figure for February at -651K was at expectations but the Unemployment Rate surged to 8.1% the highest rate in 30 years. Early Dollar weakness seen in Europe was reversed as the Employment figures caused risk aversion to spike higher and safe haven buying.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows a narrow trade for the day .With the trading range between 51.45-51.90 levels for the day. Good support is seen at 51.20 levels and key resistance is seen at 52.00. Narrow Bollinger width shows a tight range. Stochastic is seen trending down giving bearish Outlook.

Evening report-Mar 06.

Rupee was seen stronger as gains in other Asian currencies against the dollar as boosted sentiment and marginally rising stocks aided the sentiments. U.S. Non-farm payroll report will be the major event risk for the U.S. trading session, as it is expected to show the economy lost 640,000 jobs in February. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 7.9% which is not a surprise as initial jobless claims have printed above 600,000 throughout the month. However, the dour data may not provoke the expected flight to safety as the results have been anticipated with the ADP private job report showing losses of 692,000. Yet we could see fundamentals start to drive price action again which could lead to the continuation of the dollar weakness.Euro surprisingly rose to an intraday high of 1.2725 despite the ECB cutting rates by 50 bps and a 4% sell off in U.S. equity markets. The central bank brought its benchmark rate to 1.50% and signaled that more easing is a possibility. President Trichet stated that he could not rule out further easing after the rate decision. Those comments were reinforced today who said that the bank must be ready to react of deflation concerns rise but he also warned of overshooting with rate cuts which is more in line with the measured approach the MPVC has maintained. Traders may be relieved that that the central bank is becoming more aggressive which could limit the downturn for the Euro-zone economy which could provide short-term support for the Euro.pound reached as high as 1.4287 before finding resistance and finds itself consolidating above the 1.4200 price level. Sterling has steadily climbed higher since hitting its weekly low of 1.3964 despite the BoE cutting rates by 50 bps yesterday. Traders chose to ignorefactory gate prices falling from 3.5% to 3.1% -the lowest level since 2007. Fuel prices falling by 4.5% led the decline but a 7.7% increase in crude oil costs could be a sign that prices may start to stabilize. The inflation data was rendered insignificant by yesterday’s actions by the BoE. The central bank brought its benchmark rate to a record low of 0.50% and confirmed that it would begin quantitative easing. The MPC is betting that the will be able to jump start the economy and help liquidate credit markets. However, the risks are that they could reignite inflation risks and create an environment of stagflation. Yen fell nearly 200 bps on broad based dollar weakness. Currency regained some of its safe-haven status as the U.S. economy continues to weaken. Rumors of a 1 million NFP print could be a possible source of dollar weakness and flows returning to the Yen. The deteriorating state of both the economy and the political situation appears likely to add momentum to negative sentiment about Japanese assets.

Australian Dollar fell as the china stimulus plan failed -Mar 06.

Australian Dollar opened just above the 0.6500 before falling back steadily as the china stimulus plan failed to materialize and stocks slipped. Fresh US stock market lows helped the pair to break 0.6400 and close on a weak footing. January Trade balance fell to 0.97Bn vs. 1.1Bn forecast. January Building Permits slipped -3.8% vs. 1.4% forecast.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6480 S1:0.6360
R2: 0.6490 S2: 0.6350
Chart pattern signals bullish movement for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6370 - 0.6470 levels Stochastic is trending up giving bullish outlook but caution is given by momentum and parabolic which is seen trending down.

Yen slumped on the back of risk aversion -Mar 06.

Japanese Yen failed in the high 99’s and slumped back as risk aversion prompted heavy cross selling. Business Capex fell -17.3% vs. -15.6% forecast. The market is now awaiting the NFP today for direction. Looking ahead FX Reserves previously at 1011Bn.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 98.90 S1:97.30
R2: 99.10 S2:97.20
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways movement for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.40 – 98.80 levels .Stochastic is giving a bearish crossovers. Momentum are seen trending up and currency is seen trading between the moving average giving sideways outlook.

Euro fell but Pound recovered-Mar 06.

Euro pair was on weak footing as stock losses mounted pre ECB rate announcement and the 0.5% cut did little to help sentiment. ECB President Trichet indicated that he was willing to cut rates further and the ECB was researching unconventional policies. Sterling was under pressure as the USD strengthened and GBP/JPY selling undermined support. The BOE cut by 0.5% and initiated Quantitative Easing with a 150Bn limit set aside. The market welcomed the clarity and helped the pair to recover and gain especially against the Euro. Looking ahead for PPI is forecast to rise 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2690 S1:1.2500
R2: 1.2720 S2:1.2460
Chart pattern hints a small upward correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2510-1.2670 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the moving average giving bearish outlook . Long term trend indicator Momentum is confirming the outlook but stochastic is seen pointing up hinting towards a small upward correction before the fall.

GBP R1: 1.4260 S1: 1. 4030
R2: 1.4280 S2: 1. 4010
Chart pattern signals small bullish movement for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4040-1.4240 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up giving bullish signals but Currency is trading on the the moving average only a break on either sides can confirm the outlook upper break would give bullish momentum to the currency.

Rupee strengthened -Mar 06

Rupee strengthened after opening lower as gains in other Asian currencies against the dollar boosted sentiment even as the domestic stock market dropped more than 1.5 percent early. U.S. Dollar made solid gains against the most currencies as the china stimulus plan failed to eventuate and fresh stock weakness sent risk aversion soaring. Weekly Jobless Claims remained high at 639K vs. 679 last week indicating the February NFP will be weak today. Crude Oil closed down $1.77 ending the New York session at $43.61 per barrel. Looking ahead for February Non Farm Payrolls are forecast at -647K vs. -598K previously. The Unemployment Rate is expected at 7.9% vs. 7.6% previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern shows a narrow trade for the day .With the trading range between 51.40-51.90 levels for the day. Good support is seen at 51.20 levels and key resistance is seen at 52.07. Narrow Bollinger width shows a tight range. Stochastic is seen trending down giving bearish Outlook.

Evening Report-Mar 05.

Indian Rupee came off day's lows and closed at 51.76 after testing resitance level of 52.08 as state-run banks sold dollars likely on behalf of the central bank as losses in shares and higher offshore forwards tried to push to unit towards record lows.The wholesale price index rose 3.03 percent in the 12 months to Feb. 21, below the previous week's annual rise of 3.36 percent.Reserve Bank of India cut its short-term lending and borrowing rates by 50 basis points saying growth had been hit more than expected by the global financial crisis and downturn.Euro is seen on a bearish note as Euro-Zone Q4 GDP was confirmed at -1.5% q/q, in line with the preliminary number. The annual rate was revised down to -1.3% from -1.2% y/y reported initially. The breakdown showed contraction across the board, including government consumption, which declined 0.6%. The latter is a bit of a surprise considering the pressure governments are under to support the economy. Private consumption declined 0.9% q/q and investment 2.7% q/q. Exports fell 7.3% q/q and imports 5.5%, with net exports detracting 0.9% points from the quarterly growth rate. Only a 0.6% points contribution from inventories prevented an even sharper decline in overall economic activity. Q4 data are too backward looking to change the growth and interest rate outlook, but with survey data pointing to another contraction in GDP in Q1 data will back arguments for a sizable rate cut at today's council meeting.European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rate to an all-time low of 1.5% from 2.00% to bolster the ailing euro-zone economy. U.K. Pound climbed against the dollar for a third day on speculation the Bank of England will make the last of a series of cuts to its benchmark interest rate today while the European Central Bank signals further reductions. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England is widely anticipated to cut interest rates to near zero and announce non-conventional measures to improve liquidity.Yen dropped against its major counterparts and approached near 100 level against the dollar as the stock markets across the Asian region were trading higher buoyed by hopes of an additional Chinese stimulus package.Currency is also under pressure as a government report showed today that the fourth quarter business investment in Japan decreased by 17.3 percent from the same period a year ago. The decline was the largest on record, and marked the seventh straight quarter of lower Capital Expenditure. Capital expending excluding software declined 18.1 percent, also the seventh straight decline.

Yen held in a tight range

Japanese Yen held in a tight range until early Europe when 99 was broken for the first time in 4 months. Buoyant stocks helped the crosses to stage massive rallies with the largest the AUD/JPY up over 4% off lows. 100 Yen is now firmly in the markets radar and many analysts suggest a test of this level is inevitable. Looking ahead for Business Capex forecast at -16.6% in Q4

Technical Outlook:
R1: 100.65 S1:98.60
R2: 100.80 S2:98.50
Yen chart pattern indicates a bullish crossovers for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 98.80 – 100.50 levels . Momentum are seen trending up and currency is seen trading above the moving average giving indication of a bull run . Parabolic is also supported the same

Australian Dollar had a very volatile session-Mar 05.

Australian Dollar had a very volatile trading session with Q4 GDP shocking the market by falling -0.5% vs. 0.2% positive. The market tested support at .6290 before rebounding strongly on the ‘china trade’ story which positively affects the AUD. Looking ahead for January Building Permits forecast at 1.65 and Trade Balance forecast a 1.2Bn.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6520 S1:0.6330
R2: 0.6550 S2: 0.6310
Chart pattern signals bearish movement for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6350 - 0.6500 levels Stochastic is trending down supported by momentum and parabolic but currency is seen trading above the moving averages giving a caution signal

Euro and Pound bounced ahead of rate decision-Mar 05

Euro took out large stops under 1.25 to hit new 3 month lows before the china story took hold dragging the pair higher with US stocks. February PMI was revised slightly higher to 39.2 from 38.9. Looking ahead for German Retail Prices seen +0.2% in January. Also released, ECB Rate .Sterling once again bounce off the 1.400 level as USD was at maximum strength in Asia before rebounding sharply to 1.4200 on GBP/JPY buying. Looking ahead, BoE is Expected to cut by 0.5% from 1% to 0.5%. Halifax HPI forecast at -2% vs. -1.9% previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2700 S1:1.2500
R2: 1.2720 S2:1.2460
Chart pattern hints sideways to bearish for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2520-1.2690 levels for the day. Currency is trading between the fast and slow moving average giving sideways direction .Momentum and stochastic are seen are pointing down hinting towards a downward correction.

GBP R1: 1.4260 S1: 1. 4010
R2: 1.4280 S2: 1. 3970
Chart pattern signals a bullish movement for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4020-1.4240 levels for the day. Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish signals but Currency is trading on the the moving average only a break below can confirm the trend.

Rupee in a rangebound move-Mar 05.

Rupee moved in a narrow band with a weak bias despite Reserve Bank of India cutting Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 50 basis point seach in a bid to revive slowing economy and boost lending to productive sectors ,higher non-deliverable forwards and losses in domestic shares combined to weigh down sentiment.some Asian shares gave up gains on uncertainty over the stimulus package likely to be announced by the Chinese government in the near future.U.S. Dollar hit new multi-month highs in early Asia as Australia GDP surprised to the downside and the Euro broke through 1.25. The stock market then stabilized and actually started to gain as rumors swept the market of a new Chinese stimulus package. On the same subject Chinese PMI increased to 49 from 45 last month and added to speculation China may rebound from the current slowdown. January Non-Manufacturing for February came in at 41.6 vs. 42.9 previously. February ADP National Employment at -697K vs. -522K previously. Looking ahead for Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 650K vs. 667K previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern indicates sideways movement for the day. With the trading range between 51.20-51.90 levels. With good support seen at 51.10 levels and key resistance at 52.03 levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving indication of a small upward correction and currency is trading on the moving averages only break on either side can confirm the trend.

Evening report-Mar 04.

Rupee strengthened and closed at 51.54 as Reserve Bank of India countered a squeeze on cash from its dollar sales to stem the currency's slide which would also minimise the impact on the market of a large increase in government debt issues.Indian rupee is hit by the inability of local firms to refinance short-term foreign loans, capital outflows from financial markets, falling remittances as overseas Indian workers lose their jobs, and a deteriorating economic outlook.U.S dollar benefited from a flight to safety following the Australian GDP figures, it has begun to give back some of its gains. However the economic calendar could reverse trader sentiment as the upcoming ADP and ISM Non-manufacturing reports are expected to show the U.S. economic recession is deepening. The private employment report is forecasted to print a job loss of 630,000 in February. This will lower expectations for Friday’s Non-Farm payroll release which could continue to fuel risk aversion and bullish dollar sentiment. Meanwhile the service sector is expected to have contracted for a fourth straight month in February with a print of 41.0 after 42.9 the month prior. Further deterioration in a sector which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. GDP may also weigh on the growth outlook for the economy. U.S. Secretary Treasury Tim Geithner’s resuming his testimony today and the Fed Beige book report also present event risk for the dollar. Euro broke below 1.2500 for the first time but immediately bounced back above the support level. A better than expected final PMI service reading has lent support for the EURO as it was revised higher to 39.2 from 38.9. However the breach of such significant support could signal more losses for the single currency especially with the ECB expected to cut rate tomorrow. . President Trichet has been leery of lowering rates close to zero for fear that it would trap the MPC and leave it without further recourse. Yet some are speculating that the impact of the sharp decline in Eastern Europe will weigh on their western counterparts and the MPC will have no choice but to aggressively cut rates and consider quantitative easing Pound fell to 1.3997 on a weaker than expected Australian GDP release which reignited concerns over global growth. However positive equity markets an improvement in consumer confidence and a better than expected PMI service print has helped Sterling reverse earlier loss. The February Nationwide consumer confidence report improved for the first time in five months to 43 from 38. Meanwhile the U.K. service sector improved for a third straight month to 43.2 from 42.5, but remains well below the boom/bust level of 50. Despite the signs that the U.K. economy may be stabilizing the BoE is expected to cut its benchmark rate tomorrow by 50 bps to 0.50%. The central bank is also expected to receive permission from Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to begin quantitative easing. Yen weakened to more than 99 per dollar for the first time in almost four months as stock markets rose across Asia and Europe, reducing the allure of the currency as a refuge from the financial turmoil and on the back of the gloomy outlook of the Japanese economy, weak global economy would ultimately lead to a decline in exports.

Euro and Pound falls against the dollar.-Mar 04.

Euro bounced back above 1.2600 level as EUR/JPY buying emerged on the back of AUD/JPY buying after the RBA meeting. Gains topped out in Europe and fell back as US stocks reversed early positive sentiment. German January WPI fell -0.4% vs. -3% forecast. Looking ahead, February PMI forecast at 38.9 vs. 42.2. Sterling tested 1.400 again as reports emerged that the BOE was considering Quantitative Easing as early as this month. The rebound from Heavy GBP/JPY buying was capped in Europe as February Construction PMI fell to a record low 27.8. The market is pricing in a 0.5% rate cut. . Looking ahead, PMI Services forecast at 41.8 vs. 42.5 previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2600 S1:1.2420
R2: 1.2610 S2:1.2400
Chart pattern hints for bear note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2430-1.2590 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the fast moving average and Momentum indicators are pointing down giving room for bearish note for the day.

GBP R1: 1.4090 S1: 1. 3900
R2: 1.4100 S2: 1.3890
Chart pattern signals downward movement for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3920-1.4080 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the the moving average and the trend indicators Momentum and stochastic are seen also trending down giving bearish signals for the day.

Rupee remains choppy-Mar 04.

Continuing its fall for the eighth day in a row, the Indian rupee depreciated marginally to 52 a dollar in early tradetaking cues from a mixed trend in other Asian currencies amid some demand for the greenback from importers. U.S. Dollar Trading weakened in Asia as traders covered shorts and stocks rallied off lows. The losses proved short lived though as US economic data continued to surprise to the downside. January Pending Home Sales fell -7.7% vs. -3% forecast. Fed Chief Bernanke also spoke to senators and painted a bleak picture of the US banking industry. Looking ahead, January Non-Manufacturing for February expected at 41 vs. 42.9. Also released, February ADP National Employment expected at -610K vs. -522k previously.

Tech Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern indicates mixed note With the trading range between 51.40 -52.10 levels. With good support seen at 51.30 levels and key resistance at 52.15 levels. Stochastic is seen at overbought areas and is pointing towards the possiblity of slight downward correction but as long as currency is above the moving average there is no confirmation.

Australia’s currency rose as RBA Rate Decision Boosts Demand-Mar 03.

Australian Dollar was weak as Asian stocks continued to fall and the key 0.6350 level gave way. Noted support under 0.6300 propped the pair for the rest of the day going into the RBA announcement Tuesday. Looking ahead, January Retail Sales forecast at -0.6% vs. 3.8% previously. Also released, RBA Interest Rate Decision with the market mixed some looking for a pause holding at 3.25% whilst others hoping for 0.5% cut in anticipation negative GDP numbers .

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 6470 S1:0.6270
R2: 0.6480 S2: 0.6250
Chart pattern signals bullish movement for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.6280 - 0.6460 levels Stochastic is trending up supported by momentum.Currency is seen trading on the moving averages waiting for confirmation

Yen held the 97-98 range -Mar 03.

Japanese Yen held the 97-98 range but strengthened against most currencies as the overwhelming stock market losses brought the old correlations back into play. GBP/JPY was the worst performer as investors bailed out of the pound

Technical Outlook:
R1: 98.10 S1:96.60
R2: 98.156 S2:96.50
Yen chart pattern indicates a consolidation phase and a sideways movement for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 96.70 – 98.01 levels . Momentum and stochastic is seen flat so bias remains neutral for the day. Parabolic is supporting the bull note in near term

Euro held to a tight range but sterling lostagainst dollar-Mar 03.

Euro held to a tight range but was under pressure as risk aversion pushed the pair below 1.26. The lack of heavy EUR/JPY sales kept Euro losses to minimum. News over the weekend that the EU had rejected initial plans for a 180 billion bailout package for Eastern Europe did little to help sentiment. February Euro zone PMI Manufacturing was confirmed at 33.5 vs. 34.4 previously. Looking ahead for German January WPI forecast at -2% vs. -3% previously .Sterling lost a lot of the support that had formed in previous weeks as HSBC reported a 17 Billion loss and initiated a capital raising effort. Mortgage data was extremely weak with January lending falling to 0.69Bn vs. 1.794Bn previously. Market attention now turns to BOE meeting on Thursday.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2690 S1:1.2500
R2: 1.2700 S2:1.2470
Chart pattern shows the formation of triangle only break on either sides can confirm the trend. . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2520-1.2680 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the moving averages. Stochastic and momentum are pointing up.

GBP R1: 1.4360 S1: 1. 4150
R2: 1.4380 S2: 1. 4140
Chart pattern signals a bullish momentum for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.3950-1.4150 levels for the day. Stochastic has turned from the oversold area and is seen trending up giving bullish signals but Currency is trading below the the moving average and parabolic is indicating bear note in near term .

Indian Rupee strengthened fom 52-March 03.

Indian Rupee strengthened early after a sharp fall to a record low of 52 per dollar in the previous session. Market is awaiting further cues from stock.U.S. Dollar continued to find strength in adversity as investors flooded into the safe have with fresh 12 year lows in US stocks. The Dow broke 7000 and fell sharply to 6800. ISM Manufacturing gained slightly to 35.8 vs. 35.6 previously. Looking ahead for January Pending Home Sales are forecast to fall -3% vs. +6.3% previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern indicates a bear rally for the day. With the trading range between 51.20-51.95 levels. With good support seen at 51.10 levels and break of which would take the currency to 50.80 key resistance at 52.00 levels. Stochastic is seen trending down giving indication of a small downward correction and market is also at overbought level currency is expected to take support at 51.17 as gap filling.

Yen managed to gain -Mar 02.

Japanese Yen managed to gain after a week of losses as the speed of the decline finally caught up with the USD/JPY. January Unemployment improved to 4.1% vs. 4.4% previously and Retail Sales dropped.

Technical outlook:

R1: 98.10 S1:96.20
R2: 98.50 S2:96.05
Yen chart pattern indicates sideways movement for the day. day . Trading range for the day is expected between 96.50 – 97.95 levels . Momentum remains in neutral territory waiting for further signals from the market and currency is seen trading above the fast moving average yet cautions for sell off market in near term.

Euro and pound Slides to One-Week Low -Mar 02.

The Euro came under pressure as US stocks slumped toward the 7000 level but failure to break this and extremely weak US GDP caused a lot of volatility and 1.2600 providing support. EUR/JPY came off the 125 level as traders took profits after very large gains during the week. January CPI was confirmed at 1.1% Y/Y and Unemployment rose to 8.2% Looking ahead, Eurozone PMI manufacturing forecast at 33.6 vs. 34.4. Eurozone Inflation Flash forecast at 1.0% Y/Y.Sterling although better supported the others currencies, cable succumbed to USD strength and tested 1.4150 before rallying into the US close. GFK Consumer Confidence improved to -35 vs. -39 forecast.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.2690 S1:1.2510
R2: 1.2700 S2:1.2500
Chart pattern hints bear trend for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2520-1.2680 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the fast moving average giving outlook. Momentum indicators are pointing down supporting the outlook.

GBP R1: 1.4340 S1: 1. 4130
R2: 1.4350 S2: 1. 4100
Chart pattern signals downward trend for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4150-1.4330 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the the moving average and Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish signals for the day.

Indian Rupee at record low-Mar 02

Indian rupee extended its drop to hit a record low of 52 against the dollar on on heightened concerns of rising foreign funds outflows while arbitrage play between the onshore and offshore markets hurt. U.S. Dollar Gained against most currencies as the dollar became the last refuge for investors with global stocks finishing the week very weak. Also hurting sentiment was the largest revision on record for US Q4 GDP at -6.2% y/y vs. -3.8% y/y initially.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR chart pattern indicates downward correction for the day. With the trading range between 51.20-51.90 levels. With good support seen at 50.95 levels and key resistance at 51.95 levels. Stochastic is seen overbought levels and indicates the currency to have a sell off till the support levels for the day.