Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Euro and pound weakens against dollar-aug 27

The Euro German IFO was strong as expected and helped the Euro touch day highs at 1.4350 before sellers returned and slammed the pair lower on stalling stocks and fresh USD strength. Positive sentiment is failing to produce the desired results for the bulls who are becoming frustrated with the lack of progress. Looking ahead, German GFK forecast at 3.7 vs. 3.5 previously.On technical side EURUSD are seen on a bearish move is expected to trade in the range of 1.4190 -1.4320 levels . Stochastic and momentum indicators are bearish and currency is also trading below the moving average confirming the bear trend. Key resistance seen at 1.4350 levels .Good support is seen at 1.4150.

The Sterling continued the slump on the above China news breaking support at 1.6300 to test 6 week lows below 1.6200. GBP/JPY was weak and EUR/GBP tested 0.8800. The outlook is beginning to turn very bearish as momentum develops on the downside. Looking ahead, August CBI distributive trades forecast at -13 vs. -15 previously. Sterling charts are giving downward correction and the currency is expected to have a trading range of 1.6160-1.6320. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down giving bearish outlook . Good support is seen at 1.6150 and key resistance is seen at 1.6350.Parabolic is also seen supporting the bearish outlook.

Rupee dollar fell on month end demands-aug 27.

U.S. Dollar strong US data failed to inspire fresh stock gains. News of China curbing investment sent commodities and risk currencies lower. New Homes sales rose 9% as expected and Durable Goods rose 4.9% vs. 3% forecast. One Dampener was core Durable goods that came in at 0.8% vs. 0.9% forecast. USD strength on the back of strong US data is new phenomenon starting to be digested by the markets. Looking ahead, Q2 Preliminary GDP is forecast at -1.5%. The Rupee edged lower in early trade as the dollar's gains versus majors overseas coupled with month-end dollar demand from importers and oil refiners hurt. Technically Indian unit is seen on a bull note and the currency is expected to take resistance at 49.12 levels .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 48.85- 49.08 levels for the day. Stochastic and Relative strength Index are still trending up .Good support is seen at 48.79 currency is also trading above the moving average confirming the uptrend. But caution required as market is in overbought areas.