Evening Report-April 30.

A full economic docket today will provide further insight into the economy and may add to increasing optimism that has been built on the improvements in consumer confidence and personal consumption adding to dollar weakness. However, inline prints of personal income and spending in March which is forecasted to have fallen by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, would contradict with the 2.2% jump in personal consumption component in the GDP report. Additionally initial jobless claims are expected to remain at 640,000 as the labor market continues to be negatively impacted by the recession which could weigh on consumer spending going forward, and may extend the current downturn. Conversely forecasts are for the Chicago PMI reading to improve to 35.0 from 31.4 adding to signs that activity is beginning to pick up as credit markets loosen which could help stem future job losses. This would support the FOMC’s contention that the economy is seeing a slower pace of contraction which led them to refrain from adding additional measures to their current quantitative easing efforts. The Euro reached as high as 1.3388 before theGerman Unemployment report showed the country lost another 58,000 jobs and saw its unemployment rate rise to 8.3% which is the highest since December, 2007. The CPI-estimate holding at 0.6% also added to bearish sentiment as the forecast were for a rise in inflation to 0.7%. Although, prices holding steady will help ease some deflation concerns, markets were ready to eliminate the concern if it saw price pressures increasing. Therefore expectations will remain that he ECB could initiate non-standard measures as soon as their policy meeting next week.Therefore we expect the central bank to cut rates by 0.25% next week and leave decisions on quantitative easing efforts until the next meeting as they continue with their measured approach and take stock of past efforts. The pound has also seen a reversal of fortunes as it has fallen 100 pips after reaching a two week high of 1.4949. We could be seeing profit taking here as the imminent bankruptcy of Chrysler and the "swine flu" pandemic alert level being raised. Positive fundamental releases could also add to a bullish case as the Gfk consumer confidence reading rose to -27 which was the highest in a year. Additionally, the 0.4% decrease in the Nationwide house price gauge was les s than forecasts of -1.2% and follows a 0.9% increase the month prior. Stabilization in the housing market will go along way in helping the economy find a bottom which could be a catalyst for increasing support for the pound. The dollar rose sharply versus the yen and held its ground against most other major currencies as market reacted to the latest interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan and as global equities rallied on signs of light on the economic horizon.

Yen was sold off on A/C of holiday in japan.-April 30.

Japanese Yen was sold all day as Japan was away on holidays and sentiment/stocks improved. USD/JPY tested 98 on the topside and EUR/JPY reclaimed 130 after trading at 125 just 2 days ago. Industrial Production (March) rose 1.6% but the Jan-March Quarter was the steepest drop on record. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate Decision forecast to remain 0.1%

Technical Outlook:
R1: 98.30 S1:97.00
R2: 98.45 S2:96.90
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.05 – 98.20 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down but currency is trading on the moving average level only break below it can confirm the trend.

Sterling tracked the Euro higher-April 30.

Euro continued to rise rapidly as sentiment improved and Eurozone confidence improved. Of concern was German GDP Growth was downgraded to -6.0% vs. -2.25% initially. The pair rallied to above 1.3300 before easing into the US close. . Looking ahead, April German Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.3% vs. 8.1% Previously. Sterling tracked the EURO higher with the GBP/JPY especially buoyant. EUR/GBP remained in a tight range which underpinned the relationship of the majors. Looking ahead for April Nationwide House prices are forecast at -1.3% vs. 0.9% previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3090 S1: 1.3120
R2: 1.3120 S2: 1.3100
Chart pattern hints towards a bullish consolidation for the day. With the trading range of 1.3140 -1.3370 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness and parabolic and stochastic are also supporting it.

GBP R1: 1.4910 S1: 1. 4600
R2: 1.4920 S2: 1. 4590
Chart pattern shows bullish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4620-1.4900 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up .Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note.

Evening Report-April 29.

The Indian rupee extended gains and closed at 50.03 levels as stocks rose over 2 percent and the dollar's weakness against major currencies overseas continued to support sentiment. Reserve Bank of India may cut its short-term lending and borrowing rates by a further 25 basis points after a new government assumes power in May The dollar has been under pressure as markets have started to look past the “swine flu” and bank stress tests and focus on the improving fundamental data. Indeed, yesterday’s jump in consumer confidence was a catalyst to reverse sentiment which has carried through as markets prepare for a U.S. GDP report which is expected to show the pace of contraction for the economy has slowed from 6.3% to 4.7%. The slew of stimulus and availability of cheap credit has raised optimism that the economy will regain its footing and return to positive growth by 2010. The FOMC policy decision is also ahead with expectations that the central bank will leave their benchmark rate at 0.25%. However, we could see the Fed announce additional quantitative easing measures or at the very least give an update on the impact of current efforts which will provide potential event risk. The Euro reached as high as 1.3240 on the back of improving confidence and increasing risk appetite now that fears from the “swine flu” pandemic have eased. Economic confidence in the region improved to 67.2 from 64.7 which was the highest in almost a year. Government stimulus plans and easing inflation has helped improve consumer’s purchasing power and their outlook. This was evident in the improvement in the retail PMI gauge which rose to 48.4 from 44.1. Although Easter spending helped boost the consumption numbers, there are clear signs that consumers are starting to open up their wallets. The comments come on the heels of remarks from committee member Nowotny who said that the ECB stands ready to use unconventional measures. Therefore, markets will begin to scrutinize any additional rhetoric the may come from members as the central bank appears to be divided on the issue. Further evidence of improving risk appetite came from yen weakness which had been the strongest performing currency during the heightened fears from the health crisis. The dollar/yen has rallied to 97.17 levels and was supported at 96.48 .Pound has also benefitted from the improving optimism with sterling/dollar breaking above 1.4739. The pound may continue to find support if the risk appetite continue as there is very little event risk on the economic docket.

Aussie dollar regains lost ground-April 29.

Australian Dollar tested 0.700 before rebounding overnight as AUD/JPY buyers emerged from the month lows yesterday. Volatile market moods are making it hard to pick direction of the risk based currency. Looking ahead, RBNZ rate call forecast at 2.5% vs. 3%.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 7190 S1:0.6980
R2: 0.7200 S2: 0.6970
Chart pattern signals slight upward correction for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.7000 - 0.7180 levels .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending up Currency is trading on the moving average level but caution required as parabolic is supporting the bear note and currency is trying to form a shoulder so long term bear note remains intact.

Yen drops on better risk appetite-April 29.

Japanese Yen used the weak Asian stocks to make fresh gains across the board led by the EUR/JPY. USD/JPY broke below 96 yen but found a lot of support below which as sentiment reversed in the US so did the crosses direction.With R1: 97.60 and R2: 97.80 levels and S1:96.10, S2:96.00
Yen chart pattern indicates a small bullish correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 96.20 – 97.50 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending have turned from the oversold levels and are seen trending up and the currency is also trading on the moving averages.

Euro and pound Reacts Positively to Friendly U.S. Economic Data-April 29.

Euro was able to rebound sharply once again after testing below 1.3000 in Europe. German CPI was flat 0.0%m/m in April. Comments pouring cold water on QE speculation also help buoy the single currency in New York. Looking ahead, April Eurozone Consumer Confidence is forecast at -33 vs. -34 previously. Sterling found support below 1.46 before rebounding on better than expected economic data. CBI Distributive trades at +3 vs. -40 the first positive reading since last year.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3280 S1: 1.3080
R2: 1.3300 S2: 1.3050
Chart pattern shows the possibility of bullish correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.3100 -1.3260 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness and stochastic are seen trending up indicating a upside correction for short term but long term bearish trend remains intact as parabolic is holding on the bear note and directional indicators are also pointing down.

GBP R1: 1.4780 S1: 1. 4560
R2: 1.4800 S2: 1. 4540
Chart pattern shows a mixed note with a tight range . Trading range is expected between 1.4590-1.4750 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending up but the Currency is still trading below moving averages and directional movement indicator is also confirming the bear note.

Rupee inches up on dollar losses-April 29.

Rupee rose snapping a two-day fall, boosted by gains in Asian stock markets and the dollar's weakness against some currencies.U.S. Dollar weakened in New York but only after testing fresh strength in Asia on swine flu fears. Fears the stress tests will require Citibank and Bank of America to raise more capital sent bank shares lower. Helping general sentiment was the large rise in Consumer Confidence to 39.2 vs. 29.6 previously.Looking ahead, Q1 GDP forecast at -4.9% vs. -5.3% previously. Also the FED meet and are expected to remain at 0-0.25% band.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR opened on a lower note. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 50.04-50.40 levels for the day. With good support seen at 49.95 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.57 levels. Stochastic is seen trending down giving bearish crossovers and the but currency is trading above the moving average only a break below it can confirm the down trend.

evening report-april 28.

The Indian rupee extended its slide and closed at 50.51 levels as domestic shares fell over 3 percent raising concerns of renewal in capital outflows while losses in other Asian currencies also hurt.The Dollar has started to give back some of its gains after concerns over Bank of America and Citigroup needing more capital added to prevailing bullish greenback sentiment. The dominant risk aversion theme has continued to provide dollar support and may continue to do so as U.S. futures are pointing toward a lower open. The fundamental calendar today has the potential to provide some optimism as consumer confidence is projected to have risen to 29.9 from 26.0, but those figures could be meaningless if current events reverse the improving outlook. Meanwhile the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 gauge is expected to show a slight improvement in home values to -18.70 from -18.97 adding further evidence that the housing market is beginning to bottom. The Richmond Fed manufacturing indicator is also forecasted to improve to -17 from -20 signaling that the U.S. recession may be slowing. Nevertheless, additional banking concerns could spark increasing risk aversion heading into next Monday’s revealing of the stress test results which may continue to fuel dollar support. The Euro saw equal weakness against the Yen but has remained firm against the dollar holding above 1.3000 after reaching as low as 1.2985. The single currency has remain stable after its sharp sell off yesterday on the back of ECB member Nowotny’s comments that the central bank is ready to use quantitative easing measures and will keep its rates low "as long a time as is required." Meanwhile on the economic docket, French data was mixed as consumer confidence rose to -41 from -42, but housing starts saw their largest decline since record keeping began in 2000 of -33.8%. Fundamental data from the region continues to show some signs that the current recession may be slowing, but it is still clear that the downside risk remain for the economy and the central bank will be forced to take further action. Therefore, we may see the Euro continue to trade heavy leading up to next Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. The 4/20 low of 1.2889 is the next major support level to watch. The Pound has started to see choppy price action after declining to 1.4516 on the back of the prevailing risk aversion. Prime Minister Gordon Brown helped ease some concerns when he stated that the U.K. was well prepared for the current health crisis and would do everything necessary to prevent it from spreading. The overall panic regarding the possible pandemic hasn’t been at heightened levels as there is a comfort level that many countries are prepared to combat its spreading after experiencing SARS. The fundamental calendar is light this week for the pound which could leave it at the mercy of the broader risk trends. Unlike the ECB, the BoE isn’t expected to make major changes to its monetary policy next week, but markets will look for a report card on the quantitative efforts and its impact. Therefore, if we see fears ease, sterling may begin to see support return.The Yen continued to find support overnight as concerns that Bank of America and Citigroup would need more capital added to the risk aversion generated by the World Health Organization raising the alarm level for the "swine flu" to 4. Indeed, as the results of the U.S. government’s stress test begin to leak out, speculation is growing that two of the county’s largest banks will need additional capital to survive the current downturn. Meanwhile, the WHO making the "swine flu" the first health crisis to reach the highest level of concern since the ratings were instituted has raised the chances of a pandemic. Indeed, the leading health organization stated that the virus can no longer be contained as cases have been confirmed in the U.K. and Canada adding to the growing numbers in Mexico and the U.S.

Japanese Yen Strengthen On Swine Flu Scare -April 28.

yen advanced after the World Health Organization said the swine flu outbreak cannot be contained, triggering demand for safer assets.With
R1: 96.80 ,R2: 96.95 and S1:95.40, S2:95.30.Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 95.50 – 96.62 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers but caution required as market is trading in the oversold areas.

Demand for the Euro and Pound weakened.-April 28.

Demand for the Euro also weakened on speculation ECB policy makers this week will signal the central bank may lower interest rates and pump additional money into the economy to push down borrowing costs and counter the recession. Pound was one of the least active pears after several sessions of volatile trading, the sterling seems to be out of steam.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3090 S1: 1.2910
R2: 1.3120 S2: 1.2880
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small downward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.2920 -1.3080 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness but parabolic is pointing down and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish crossover.

GBP R1: 1.4680 S1: 1. 4460
R2: 1.4710 S2: 1. 4420
Chart pattern shows a bearish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4480-1.4670 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down .Currency is trading below moving averages confirming the bear note.

Rupee weakened on month-end demand from oil refiners-April 28.

Indian Rupee weakened for a second consecutive day as month-end demand for dollars from oil refiners and importers hurt, while traders awaited the local stocks open for further direction.U.S.Dollar strength accelerated throughout the session putting heavy pressure on most of its counterparts.The focus should probably be on the FOMC meeting this week, as well as US GDP which is scheduled to be released this Wednesday. While growth is expected to be negative, the question is how negative as we look for anecdotes to build a more accurate projection of the timing for a recovery.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR opened on a higher note. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 50.20-50.50 levels for the day. With good support seen at 50.12 levels and second support is seen at 50.03 levels. key resistance is seen at 50.61 levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving bullish outlook and the currency is also seen trading on the moving average.

Evening Report-April 27.

The Indian rupee closed at 50.23 lower after having risen for seven straight weeks, as a see-sawing share market failed to provide clarity on fund flows, while a stronger dollar overseas also hurt.The dollar traded higher throughout the majority except against the yen as the unknown attached to the "swine flu" has fueled risk aversion. We have started to see the greenback give back some of its gains as the extra-ordinary factor may have limited impact on broader sentiment. However, concerns over growth and the bank stress test may keep traders cautious going forward. A light fundamental calendar will leave the dollar at the mercy of the broader themes today but the FOMC meeting and the first quarter GDP report will provide event risk latter in the week. The Dallas Fed manufacturing report is the only release scheduled to hit the wires and it is expected to show a mild improvement to -46.0% from -49.0%. Dow futures continue to trade down over 100 points, and a weak day on Wall St could continue to lend support for the dollar. The Euro continues to remain under pressure as traders continue to unwind risk positions sending it back below 1.3219 to an intraday low of 1.3119. The economic docket demonstrated the two themes that are currently prevalent in the economic region growing confidence and declining prices. The German Gfk consumer confidence reading held steady at 25 for a third month as it beat estimates for a decline to 23. The sentiment reading follows improvement in the PMI and IFO business gauges as confidence is starting to improve on the back of the ECB’s increasingly accommodative monetary policy and the individual stimulus packages by the various countries. Meanwhile, the German import price index to -7.1% from -6.4% in February as declining oil costs continues to drive down inflationary pressures. Deflation concerns will remain as longs as price continue to fall and the economy lacks clear signs of growth returning. Therefore, expectations are t hath e central bank will lower their benchmark rate by another 25 bos and initiate non-standard measures over their next two policy meeting, which could become a weighing factor for the single currency. Pound has also continued to remain under pressure as it fell to an intraday low of 1.4514 . The hopes of a recovery in the U.K. housing market were put on hold when Hometrack reported that home prices fell for a 19th month by 0.3% bringing the annualized reading to -10.1%. Additionally, the BBA loans for home purchases measurement declined to 26,097 from 28,024 in March. The BoE continues to purchase debt in hopes of loosening credit markets, but if those results don’t begin to start to show results we may see fears grow that more downside risks remain for the country’s economy which could start to weigh on sterling. Yen has been the main story as the currency has re-established its safe-haven status with the potential "swine flu" pandemic sending cautious investors to the sidelines. The fact that the health concerns are based in the Western hemisphere has heightened concerns as it could negatively impact the U.S. economy where the most stimulus has been enacted and is the expected source of growth to help stem the current global downturn. USD/JPY reached as low as 96.46 leaving the March 30th low of 95.94 as the next support level. There is a risk that market sentiment could return their focus back toward fundamentals, but that may not change sentiment as the pending results of the bank stress test and the gloomy outlook painted by the IMF for the global economy may still lead traders to avoid risky assets.

Australian Dollars Drop on Swine Flu-April 27.

Australian Dollar jumped as positive stocks, commodities and gold all combined to help the AUD rally over 1 cent to 0.7240. The deterioration seen on local economic data will be key as to whether the AUD remains as the global risk currency.
Technical Outlook:

R1: 0. 7250 S1:0.7040
R2: 0.7260 S2: 0.7030
Chart pattern signals bearish movement for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.7070 - 0.7240 levels .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down Currency is trading on the moving average level and parabolic is supporting the bear note.

Yen strengthened after the news of diversification of China’s FX reserves-April 27

Japanese Yen strengthened against the USD after the news of diversification of China’s FX reserves. Most of the crosses were mixed or made fresh gains as risk appetite picked up. GBP/JPY came under pressure after the Q1 GDP results. Looking ahead March Retail Sales previously at -5.8%
R1: 97.30 S1:96.00
R2: 97.45 S2:95.80
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 96.10 – 97.20 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers but caution required as market is trading in the oversold areas(below lower band)giving room for reversal.

euro improved slightly on positive data but a mixed day for sterling-April 27.

Euro broke sharply higher after the German (April) IFO survey unexpectedly improved to 83.7 vs. 82.1 previously. German officials also suggested that there is no need for further German Stimulus. Looking ahead, May GFK Index forecast at 2.3 vs. 2.4 previously. Also released, March German Import Prices . Sterling had a mixed day coming under pressure in Europe as Q1 GDP came out at -1.9% vs. -1.6% previously. Helping the pair off lows was the better than expected March Retail Sales at 0.3% vs. -0.3%.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3250 S1: 1.3080
R2: 1.3280 S2: 1.3070
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small downward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.3090 -1.3245 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness but parabolic is pointing down and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish crossover.

GBP R1: 1.4670 S1: 1. 4500
R2: 1.4680 S2: 1. 4480
Chart pattern shows a bearish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4520-1.4660 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down .Currency is trading below moving averages confirming the bear note.

India rupee drops on stx outlook, stronger dlr weigh-April 27.

Indian Rupee edged lower as losses in other regional share markets raised expectations of outflows from local stocks, with the dollar's strength overseas also weighing. U.S. Dollar the direction was set in the Asian session with news from China about the diversification of FX reserves. Figures released show that gold holdings had increased to over 1000 tons. Also hurting dollar sentiment the continued rally seen in US stocks since Tuesday. New Home Sales (March) at 356k vs. 340K forecast. Looking ahead, March Midwest MFG previously at 83.8

Technical Outlook:

USDINR opened on a higher note. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 49.85-50.22 levels for the day. With good support seen at 49.80 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.30 levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving bullish outlook and the currency is also seen trading on the moving average.

Evening Report-April 24.

The Rupee closed at 49.81/83 as shares rose after a choppy start, while a rally in other Asian currencies versus the dollar also underpinned sentiment.The Dollar has found some renewed support on the back of the weak UK growth figures as the outlook for the global economy dimmed. The greenback had been under pressure on the back of bullish momentum in the equity markets. Indeed, European indices continue to trade higher following the positive gains from the U.S. session yesterday. However, the U.S. durable goods report today could add to the dour global outlook as they are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in March following the unexpected 3.5% jump the month prior. Additionally, the new home sales report could add the weaker than expected existing home sales that we saw yesterday which could reverse sentiment that he sector was reaching a bottom. The methodology for the banks stress test will be revealed tonight and we could see limited volatility ahead of the report. The government’s tools used to determine which banks are viable will be scrutinized until the actual results are revealed in early May as analysts will try and surmise which financial institutions could possible fall below the standards.Euro found support from a rebound in German business sentiment and the prevailing risk appetite which sent it to its highest level in over a week at 1.3273. The German IFO survey of over 7,000 executives beat expectations of 82.3 as it rose from a 26-year low of 82.2 to 83.7. The optimism was derived from further easing from the ECB and government stimulus plans taking effect. The data builds upon the improvement seen yesterday in the PMI and industrial new order figures which also beat expectations.Pound has seen choppy price action following conflicting results form the U.K. GDP and the retail sales reports as it fell to as low as 1.4600 before finding support. Growth in the first quarter contracted by 1.9% which was the most since 1979 and the third straight quarter of declines. A 6.2% drop in manufacturing production led across the board declines including a 1.2% drop in the service sector which accounts for 70% of GDP. However, retail sales rising 0.3% versus expectations of -0.3% has limited the pessimism generated by the growth report. The consumption figures from March could give hope that the economy has bottomed negating the steep drop in growth to start the year. The increase in purchases by Britons was led by a 1.5% gain in apparel sales following a 4% drop in the sector in February. The component has been volatile over the past few months which could make the results a bit misleading. Dollar weakness has drove Japanese Yen to a new two-weeks low at 96.65 levels.

Yen weakened on ower growth outlook-april 24.

Japanese Yen weakened against most of the crosses although the USD/JPY failed to rally as the USD weakness intensified. Japan cut its 2009/10 growth to -3.3%. Positive stocks helping sentiment.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 98.10 S1:96.50
R2: 98.25 S2:96.40
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 96.60 – 97.90 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers but caution required as market is trading in the overbought areas(below lower band)giving room for reversal.

Euro and sterling rebounded sharply.-April 24.

Euro traded higher for the 4th day breaking above 1.3100 as Equities rallied and EU PMI’s beat estimates. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 36.7 vs. 33.9. Services jumped to 43.1 vs. 40.9 previously. Looking ahead for German IFO (April) forecast at 82.3 vs. 82.1 previously. Sterling rebounded sharply to the 1.4700 level as the bad news yesterday was ignored and traded took profits in shorts. April CBI came out -57 vs. -54 forecast. Looking ahead for Q1 GDP forecast at -1.5% vs. -1.6% previously. March Retail Sales are forecast -0.5% vs. -1.9% previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3225 S1: 1.3030
R2: 1.3240 S2: 1.3020
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small downward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.3050 -1.3220 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness but parabolic is pointing down ,currency is expected to test 1.3190 levels and then give a down ward correction.

GBP R1: 1.4720 S1: 1. 4560
R2: 1.4730 S2: 1. 4550
Chart pattern shows a bearish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4580-1.4710 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down .Currency is trading between the fast and slow moving averages

Rupee strengthen tracking the dollar's weakness -April 24.

Rupee strengthen tracking the dollar's weakness against some currencies but gains could be capped by month-end oil import payments .One-month offshore non-deliverable forwards were quoting at 50.11/21 weaker than the onshore spot rate. U.S. Dollar weakened considerably against the EURO and GBP as US stocks continue to rebound. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 540K vs. 613K previously. Also released March Home Sales at 4.57Mln vs. 4.7Mln forecast. Helping Global Stock sentiment was better than expected credit Suisse results for Q1. Looking ahead for New Home Sales forecast at 0.34Mn vs. 0.337Mln.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR opened on a lower note and is expected to trade in the range of 49.75 -50.22 levels. With good support seen at 49.68 and 49.52 levels and key resistance for he currency is seen at 50.32.Stochastic is seen pointing down and the currency is also trading below the moving average level. But since the currency has opened on a lower note possibility of gap filling cannot be ruled out,but bullish trend can be confirmed only with the break of 50.08.

Evening Report-April 23.

The rupee closed at 49.92 per dollar as domestic shares rose after an unsteady start and calmed worries about capital outflows.U.S. Dollar has been under pressure Asian stock markets took their cue from the U.S rising over 1%. However, we havent seen that sentiment carry through into European markets which are trading flat and have slowed greenback losses. Apples better than expected results after the bell help build upon growing optimism and we could see that continue today if more companies report positive earnings. UPS and Microsoft highlight the schedule as earnings continue to garner traders focus. Initial jobless claims and existing home sales dot the economic calendar and both are expected to deteriorate from their prior readings. New claims are forecasted to rise to 639K which will keep traders cautious as markets are looking for the coincident indicator to start to show consistent improvement to validate that a bottom has been reached in the current downturn. Meanwhile, the 1.5% decline that is expected in existing home sales will end a trend of improving housing data and should also help to temper optimism. The weak fundamental data and corresponding earnings reports could bring back dollar support as traders come to the realization that the economy is still far from a recovery. Improving fundamental data has helped provide a bid tone for the Euro as it reached as high as 1.3067 during European trading on the back of the PMI composite and industrial new orders releases posted better than expected results. The April survey of business executives rose to 40.5 from 38.3 as both the manufacturing and service sectors rose. The forward looking gauge improved for a second month led by Germany the regions largest economy which saw its manufacturing reading rise to 35.0 from 32.4. Meanwhile, February industrial new orders fell by 0.6% which was far better than the 2.2% decline that was expected. A reversal in capital goods from -2.7% to 2.9% led the advancement. An improvement in French business confidence to 71 from 68 rounded out a day of improving data from the region. Despite todays positive results, expectations are that the regions economy will continue to contract with the IMF forecasting a 4% decline in growth for 2009. Indeed, although the PMI reading improved it remained in contraction for the eleventh straight month. The ECBs measured approach to monetary policy is expected to prolong the current downturn and the reason that it will lag other developed nations in emerging from the crisis. Yet, committee member Jrgen Stark defended the central banks actions stating that they have taken unprecedented steps to address the crisis and that he expects a gradual recovery next . pound rose to as high as 1.4596 during overnight trading as it was able to erase most of its losses form yesterday that followed the budget report as it finds support from improving risk appetite. Indeed, in his annual budget statement, UK Chancellor Darling forecasted that the treasury is expecting to borrow GBP606 billion by the 2013 fiscal year, which was an increase of GBP226 billion from last November's pre-budget report. He also announced an increase in taxes on Britons earning above 150,000 pounds to 50%. This only raised expectations that consumers will be facing increasing taxes going forward making future growth difficult to sustain. However, the Chancellors expectation that growth will start to return by the end of 2009 despite the fact that he cut the growth forecast to -3.5% for the year could provide short-term sterling support. The yen fell versus higher-yielding currencies after Credit Suisse Group AG the biggest Swiss bank by market value reported first- quarter profit that exceeded the predictions. Japanese currency rose earlier on speculation the U.S. government will uncover more losses at the nations banks when it releases results of its so-called stress tests

Euro slightly bullish but sterling very volatile._April 23.

Euro rallied through 1.3000 after the market failed to sustain a break of 1.2900. Heavy EUR/GBP buying supported as did concern about GM’s survival in the US session. EUR/JPY remained buoyant as the major surged but late Dow weakness hurt sentiment. . Looking ahead, April PMI services are forecast at 41 vs. 40.9 while the Manufacturing is forecast at 34.5 vs. 33.9 previously. Sterling experienced a lot of volatility after a host of GBP data released overnight. Unemployment data was showing some positives with the Claimant count at 73k vs. 120k forecast. The BOE minutes showed a 9-0 vote for the continued use of Quantitative easing to the tune of 75Bn Pounds. Also released, the UK Government Budget which contained downward revisions of the UK GDP to 3.5% in 2009 and induced Fresh Pound weakness. Looking ahead, April CBI Orders forecast at -54 vs. -58 previously.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3115 S1: 1.2930 R2: 1.3140 S2: 1.2920
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small upward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.2940 -1.3110 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness but Stochastic and momentum are also supporting the view.

GBP R1: 1.4640 S1: 1. 4380 R2: 1.4660 S2: 1. 4350
Chart pattern shows a sideways note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4390-1.4630 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up .Currency is trading below the moving averages only crossovers can confirm the trend

Rupee dropped snapping a four-day losing streak--April 23

Rupee dropped on a day after it snapped a four-day losing streak, weighed down by mostly weak Asian currencies and mixed regional stocks.U.S. Dollar had a mixed day with heavy data releases in the UK the main highlight. Weak stocks kept the USD/JPY under pressure and the GBP was very weak after the UK budget revised GDP lower and raised concerns about government debt. Looking ahead, March Home Sales forecast at 4.7mln vs. 4.72 previously.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

USDINR is expected to move in a narrow range of 50.20-50.60 levels. With good support seen at 50.14 levels and second support is seen at 50.08 levels. Resistance is seen at 50.68 levels. Stochastic is seen trending down giving bearish crossovers .Range Bound movement is expected as the band width is narrow.

Evening Report-April22

The Rupee pared gains as shares came off earlier highs and fell more than 1 per cent, but gains in other Asian units against the dollar underpinned sentiment.U.S. dollar remained supported overnight as we start to see concerns over corporate earnings begin to weigh on risk sentiment. The theme is similar to what we saw yesterday before U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reassured markets that banks had enough capital and those that may have additional needs would be able to fulfill them from remaining TARP funds, private investment or converted government preference shares. This sparked a relief rally as fears had grown that the government was reluctant to ask Congress for additional funds and may let under capitalized banks fail. On the earnings front AT&T, Morgan Stanley, McDonalds, Wells Fargo and Apple after the bell highlight another heavy day of releases. Additionally, Tim Geither Is back in Washington for additional testimony which could lead to another day of volatility for the greenback. The Euro has come off of its intraday low of 1.2894 erasing a sharp dip lower that was seen at the opening of European trading on remarks from ECB member Axel Weber. The policy maker stated 1.0% would be the lower limit of the central bank’s benchmark rate which signals that easing will end after the 25 bps cut which is expected sometime over the next two policy meetings. The mixed messages from the committee have lead to speculation that they remain divided on future policy actions despite continuous claims from President Trichet that they remain united. The euro/dollar upside potential may be limited by at 1.3038, as the downside risk remain for the pair with future easing expected from the ECB and risk appetite limited by corporate earnings. The pound fell nearly 50 pips after a slew of data hit the wires including U.K.Unemployment, BoE minutes and the budget figures. The number of jobless claims rose by 73,700 which was less than the 116,000 that was forecasted by economists. However, the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% . The impact from the deteriorating labor market was exacerbated by theU.K.Budget deficit increasing to 90 billion pounds nearly tripling the 34.6 billion from a year earlier. The implications of the shortfall are future tax increases which Britions will have to deal with after emerging from the current crisis limiting long-term growth prospects for the country. The BoE also released the minutes from their last policy meeting which revealed that they were unanimous in voting to initiate quantitative easing measures and leave the benchmark rate at 0.50%. The central bank started that the initial asset purchase effects have been "encouraging" and that some credit availability is improving. The MPC would go on to say there are signs that the recession will moderate in the second quarter but risks remain to the downside. The central bank still maintains its expectations that inflation will undershoot its 2% target and that it is still too soon to say that credit markets are improving.yen rose on speculation stress tests on the largest U.S. banks will show additional loan losses boosting the currency’s appeal as a refuge from the global financial crisis.

Yen tracked equity markets to weaken-April 22

Japanese Yen tracked equity markets to weaken in the US session as risk appetite improved and banking stocks rallied. USD/JPY jumped towards 99 although sluggishness in the EUR/JPY meant gains were limited. March Trade Balance was at 11Bn vs. -5Bn Yen forecast.

Technical Outlook

R1: 99.10 S1:97.65 R2: 99.25 S2:97.50
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 97.80 99.00 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers

Sterling and Euro rebounded-April 22

Euro failed to break through 1.2900 although the bounce was small and the Euro is feeling very heavy with the current uncertainty over next months ECB meeting stopping the improvement in risk appetite to translate into currency gains. EUR/JPY buying supported the pair to gain in New York to just below 128. EUR/GBP came under pressure again trading back to the low 0.88s. German ZEW current conditions fell to -91 vs. -89 previously although future expectations improved. Sterling rebounded with stocks supported by EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying. A lot of data is ahead of us this week including Q1 GDP which will be critical in the pounds short term direction. CPI (Mar) came in at 2.9% y/y as expected. Looking ahead, March Claimant Count forecast at 120k vs. 138k previously. Also Feb ILO Unemployment rate forecast at 6.7% vs. 6.5%.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3015 S1: 1.2860 R2: 1.3040 S2: 1.2840
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small upward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.2880 -1.3000 levels for the day. Chart pattern shows a descending triangle pattern and is expected to test the support level .Currency is also trading on the lower bollingers but Stochastic and momentum are seen flat

GBP R1: 1.4700 S1: 1. 4520 R2: 1.4720 S2: 1. 4480
Chart pattern gives bearish signals for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4530-1.4690 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down .Momentum is also supporting the view .Currency is trading below the moving averages

Rupee rose snapping four day slide-April 22

The Rupee snapped a four-day slide and rose as higher regional stock markets calmed concerns of capital outflows but month-end dollar demand from importers could check a sharp rise. U.S. Dollar gave up some of the strength gained when the Treasury Secretary Geithner testified that the vast majority of US banks have more capital than required and that the credit markets are improving. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories are forecast at 2.3M vs. 5.6M previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR is expected to move in the range of 50.20-50.50 levels for the day. With good support seen at 50.1550 levels and key resistance for the currency is at 50.61 level. Though the trend remains bullish .It is expected to test 50.20 levels .Stochastic is seen trending down .But currency is trading above the moving average only crossovers can confirm the trend. Strategy for the day would be a Buy at support levels .Range Bound movement is expected.

Evening Report-April 20.

Rupee at closed at 50.25/27 per dollar as losses in other Asian currencies and paring of rise in local stocks weighed on sentiment.India’s central bank may resort to "unconventional" measures to spur demand for bonds and help the government finance economic stimulus spending.RBI has lowered interest rates five times since mid-October and may cut the overnight lending rate by half a percentage point to 4.5 percent tomorrow. He may reduce the reverse re purchase rate by at least a quarter- percentage point to 3.25 %The dollar has been supported overnight as risk appetite has faded ahead of a week of significant event risk. The economic calendar is relatively empty with only the leading indicator gauge scheduled for release. The forward looking measurement is expected to decline by another 0.2% indicating that the economy will continue to weaken over the next three months. The remainder of the week will much more eventful with 40% of the Dow and 25% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week. If earnings reports continue to surprise to the upside we may see equity markets build on recent gains and lead to dollar weakness. Indeed, the OECD’s Gurria stated that there are positive signs emerging from China and the U.S. and if markets start to believe that a recovery is around the corner then we could see risk appetite sustained over the medium term. However, clear signs of a recovery will most likely not emerge until the end of 2009 which could lead to choppy price action in the short-term. The Euro has also come under pressure as traders continue to steer clear of the single currency, as the ECB remains divided over future easing and non-standard measures. The euro/dollar fell to as low as 1.2952 as it has clearly broken below the 50-Day SMA at 1.3037. German Zew and IFO surveys latter in the week will give some insight into prevailing sentiment and whether the central bank’s division is weighing on optimism. Many expect that ultimately we will see another 25 bps rate cut and some form of quantitative easing. The pound has traded heavy throughout overnight trading falling over 200 pips to 1.4550 as a week full of event risk has spurred risk aversion. U.K. CPI and employment figures are due over the next two days which are expected to support the BoE’ contention that inflation will undershoot their 2% target and the economy will continue to slow until the end of 2009. There have been some positive signs recently for the economy which continued today as Rightmove reported that house prices rose for a third straight month by 1.8%. On Wednesday the government will unveil its budget which is expected to be focused on growth and should contain measures to help the unemployed. Yet, Chancellor Darling is expected to forecast that the economy will contract by 3.5% this year and that recent bailouts will become a tax burden going forward. USD/JPY is trading in a range between 98.65 intra-day low and 99.15 levels for the day

Evening Report-April 17

Rupee ended down at 49.86 rupees against US dollar today after moving in the 49.62-49.89 as banks purchased the greenback after local shares partially erased gains, while some lenders covered their short dollar positions. Dollar demand from importers also dragged the Indian unit down. The dollar has been supported well over night as concerns grow in Europe and risk aversion flows gained momentum. The only major economic release scheduled today is the University of Michigan consumer confidence indicator which is expected to improve to 58.5 from 57.3. The U.S. economy showing signs of stabilizing and the governments consistent efforts to do whatever it takes to improve conditions has started to have a positive impact on sentiment. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking today in Washington DC and the central bank leaders comments always deserve watching. Earnings from GE and Citibank may have the most market moving potential, if the financial giants continue the theme of positive financial sector results we could see risk appetite improve and the dollar weaken. However, if they continue to show scars from the credit crisis, then further dollar support could be expected. The Euro dropped to a month low of 1.3056 after dovish comments from ECB president Trichet who confirmed that the central bank is of the view that further easing and additional non-standard measures are needed. The remarks confirmed market expectations that a 25 bps rate cut would come sometime over their next two policy meetings. Meanwhile, the Euro Zone trade balance deficit narrowed to -2 billion from -10.9 billion as imports declined faster than exports. However, the region continues to see demand from its main trading partners weaken which is threatening to extend the current recession. ECB from the outside appears to be at odds over whether to cut rates again and embark on quantitative easing measures. President Trichet denied those contentions stating that the committee was united in its thinking. However, recent comments from member Axel Weber cautioning against cutting rates below 1% and purchasing debt appears to be in conflict with some of his peers. Pound is being dragged lower by the increasing risk aversion as fears grow that earnings releases scheduled today for U.S. financial companies may disappoint. Sterling started to come under pressure after the Council of Mortgage Lenders last night revealed that plunging UK house prices have forced 900,000 mortgage borrowers into negative equity. The housing market continues to deteriorate and there is a concern that the BoE efforts to provide liquidity to the market may not have as significant an impact as expected. This could limit upside potential and keep the pound/dollar range bound as longer-term signals are still pointing toward bullish momentum continued its run of choppy trading versus the yen holding just below the century mark. Japan's Cabinet Office maintained its economic assessment for the second straight month saying that the economy is worsening rapidly while in a severe situation.

Evening Report-April 16

The Indian rupee came off 2-month highs in afternoon trade and closed at 49.75 as shares reversed early gains and dropped more than 2 percent but the strength in other Asian units supported sentiment.The annual inflation rate headed towards zero , which could give the central bank room to cut interest rates when it reviews policy next week.The Dollar saw across the board gains during overnight trading as global growth fears were fueled by Chinas weak GDP figures. U.S. markets shook off similar concerns yesterday but a source of recent optimism has been the expectations that China would rebound faster than originally expected. Now that this has been brought onto question focus will turn to the prospect of a U.S. recovery, which todays economic docket will shed some light as we will see housing, employment and manufacturing data cross the wires. Housing starts are expected to slip to 540,000 after Februarys unexpected surge to 583,000. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims are expected to fall to 660,000 from 654,000 which should add to current growth fears as the fundamental data demonstrates that the labor market continues to deteriorate which will threaten any recovery in the housing sector and the broader economy. Therefore, we should continue to see dollar support if the domestic growth outlook follows the dimming global prospects. However, an unexpected improvement in these figures in conjunction with the expected improvement in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reading could help offset current pessimism and weigh on the green back. Additionally, JP Morgan Chase is due to report earnings and if they can continue the trend of positive earnings from the banking sector it could help fuel optimism.Euro has steadily declined since Chinas GDP report was released erasing gains from yesterday built on the rising U.S. equity markets. The worlds third biggest economy saw growth fall to its slowest pace in nearly a decade at 6.1% as exports continued to decline. The euro/ dollar had reached as high as 1.3270 before its current descent which sent it to 1.3130 before finding support. Euro-zone February industrial production falling by a record 18.4% added to bearish sentiment lead by a 4.3% drop in durable goods. Also, the regions March CPI was confirmed at 0.6% which will perpetuate deflation concerns as it is below the central banks 2% target.The Euro-zone continues to show signs of weakness and the lowest level of activity . As factories continue to slash employees as they try and cut costs amidst falling output, we may see the worst recession in 60 years continue to deepen. The ECB is starting to finally talk of taking aggressive measures to curb the downturn with influential committee member Axel Weber talking quantitative easing and further rate cuts yesterday. The head of the Bundesbank said that the central bank should focus its non-standard efforts at banks instead of capital markets as is the case with the Fed and BoE. He would also argue for the use of a rate cut to battle potential deflationary pressures but warned that cutting below 1% could discourage interbank lending and lead to additional problems. Therefore, expectations are that the ECB will announce quantitative easing measures at their next policy meeting with a rate cut at the subsequent gathering. The Pound also saw weakness on the dour global growth outlook which saw the sterling/dollar fall 200 pips from 1.5070 to 1.4870. Unlike the Euro the cable has had growing support as the pair took out the February 9trh high of 1.4988 yesterday which leaves the 1/9 high of 1.5375 as the next barrier. Unless, we see a significant bout of risk aversion we expect the pound to continue its upward trajectory as the BoE has been ahead of the curb in providing liquidity to its markets which should start to bear fruit in the second half of 2009. The dollar dropped against the yen before U.S. reports today forecast to show home construction slowed and initial claims for jobless benefits increased.

Australian Dollar came under pressure-April 16.

Australian Dollar came under pressure in Asia as rumors of large sell orders and weak stocks combined to push the pair towards supports at 0.7150. The rebound came with the change in sentiment New York and the rally seen in Copper prices and AUD/JPY. The run up to 0.7300 has been quite fast so pullbacks are healthy for the resurgent Aussie.

Technical Outlook:

AUD R1: 0. 7330 S1:0.7160 R2: 0.7340 S2: 0.7140
Chart pattern signals bear note for the day .Trading range is expected between 0.7170 - 0.7320 levels .Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down Currency is trading below the moving average level giving bearish outlook..

Yen Advances as China’s Slowing Growth Spurs Recession Concern -April 16.

Japanese Yen surged on the back of heavy cross sales in Asia with USD/JPY testing 98.20. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY selling the main channel with the later testing 130 Yen before rebounding for the rest of the day. Continued speculation over the health of the Japanese economy is providing support for Yen weakness.

Technical Outlook:

YEN R1: 100.10 S1:98.05 R2: 100.15 S2:98.00
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 98.15 100.05 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers

Euro remained on lower note but pound rallied on brown's comments-April 16.

Euro came under pressure in early Europe as ECBs Weber commented on unconventional measures (ie. Quantitative Easing) at next months meeting. Also weighing was the EUR/GBP cross which continued to make new lows this week. A bounce in the US session on the back of EUR/JPY buying helped the Euro reclaim 1.3200 but further gains will require fresh USD weakness. Looking ahead for March Industrial Production forecast at -2.4% vs. -3.5% previously. Also released, Core CPI (Mar) forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.4% m/m previously .Sterling finally broke through the 1.500 level albeit not for very long on the back of improvement in the RICS house Price Balance which jumped to -73 vs. -78 previously. A sustained break is now needed to talk of further upside targets.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3315 S1: 1.3100 R2: 1.3330 S2: 1.3080
Chart pattern hints towards a bearish move. With the trading range of 1.3120-1.3302 levels for the day. Stochastic has given bearish crossover and is pointing down supported by momentum. Currency is trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers.

GBP R1: 1.5070 S1: 1. 4860 R2: 1.5080 S2: 1. 4850
Chart pattern gives mixed signals for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4890-1.5060 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down from the over bought levels .Momentum is also supporting the view .Currency is trading above the moving averages giving a caution signal.

Rupee strengthened on equity inflow hopes-April16

Rupee opened firm against the US dollar because banks sold dollars on hopes that inflows from foreign funds may continue to trickle into the local market as shares are seen gaining here .Stocks have been rising from last two sessions .Overall sentiment for the rupee looks upbeat. However, dollar demand from importers limited the rupee's rise. U.S. Dollar gained in Asia as stocks came under pressure for the second day in that region. Most of the gains were given up in the US session as equities bounced into the close. The EUR struggled once again but AUD and GBP rallied well. CPI (March) gained 0.2% vs. 0.1% forecast. Looking ahead for March House Starts forecast at 0.54M vs. 0.583M previously. Also released Philly Fed (Apr) forecast at -32 vs. -35 previously.

Technical Outlook:

USDINR charts shows a bearish note for the day. With the trading range expected between 49.23-49.58.Good support is seen at 49.15 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 49.68 levels. Stochastic is trading at the oversold area hinting towards the possiblity of small upward correction but the general trend remains bearish

Evening Report-April 15.

The Rupee closed at 49.66 from an early low of 50.09, as shares turned positive, reducing worries of slowing foreign capital inflows ,With equity markets recovering sharply .Currency rose further against the US dollar because banks sold the greenback on behalf of foreign institutional investors and exporters.Inflation in the U.S. is expected to fall as the current recession continues to drag consumer prices lower. Forecasts are for CPI to fall to -0.1% in March from 0.2% the month prior which will raise deflation and growth concerns. Considering the sharp drop in producer prices yesterday which fell 1.2% in March, we expect a greater than expected decline which could add to recent dollar support. Domestic and global growth concerns have fueled risk aversion flows which may continue today after Intels dour earnings report. However, sentiment start to reverse during European trading and U.S. futures have crept into positive territory which is putting pressure on the greenback. Net long-term TIC flows and the Fed Beige book are also indicators to watch as they have potential to impact risk appetite. Euro continues to be weighed by the risk aversion that is currently permeating markets and the uncertainty of the future course of action from the ECB. The single currency fell to as low as 1.3203 before finding support which continues to hold firm and may limit downside risks. However, bullish sentiment has been limited as traders continue to fear that the central bank will need to take more aggressive actions going forward which may include a reduction of their benchmark interest rate and quantitative easing measures. German wholesale price index release added to deflation concerns as it showed a 0.9% decline in prices . Unlike the BoE which has maintained that inflation would undershoot their target and have taken significant measure to combat possible deflation, the ECB has maintained that it is not a concern of theirs and has continued to take their deliberate approach to monetary policy. ECB member Axel Weber was on the wires today confirming the committees stance when he stated that Im critical of reducing the main refinancing rate below 1 percent as it would discourage interbank lending. The comments provided some Euro support and pushed the EUR/USD to as high as 1.3267. Pound rebounded sharply after weakening throughout Asian trading where it fell to as low as 1.4822 before it soared over 140 pips. The bullish sentiment strengthened despite the DCLG house price index showing a 12.3% drop in values, which was the largest on record. We may continue to see sterling support as the BoE has started to see success from their quantitative easing efforts. After a slow start the central bank reported that its weekly purchase efforts on Tuesday were met by three times as many offers. As they continue to pump money onto the system borrowing costs should continue to fall which is expected to help bring an end to the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression. Yen fell to as low as 98.155 before a reverse in sentiment would push it back above the technical indicator to 99.15. A clean break below could set the dollar/yen up for a larger move lower which could be the case today if we see fundamental data and corporate earnings fuel risk aversion. Upside potential for the pair may be limited until the government reveals the results of their bank stress testing. The uncertainty of the outcome has started to push equity traders to the sidelines and may remain a supporting factor for the yen.

Yen fell heavily as Global stocks weakened -April 15.

Japanese Yen fell heavily as Global stocks weakened with the break of the key 100 level enticing further selling. Crosses were led down by the EUR/JPY falling from 134 to 131.50. Poor US data reignited risk aversion and the Yen finished the day on a strong footing.
Technical Outlook:
R1: 99.10 S1:98.05 R2: 99.15 S2:98.00
Yen chart pattern indicates bearish move for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 98.10 99.00 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and currency is also trading below the moving average level giving bearish crossovers

Euro on bearish note but pound holding steady-April15

Euro traded lower as risk aversion hurt sentiment with both the Yen and Dollar gaining. Continued ECB rate cut speculation and recent weak data has kept the Euro pressured. Sterling found strength in a report from the Telegraph calling for a bottom in the UK housing slump. Risk aversion capped gains however with the 1.5000 level continuing to elude the resurgent Cable. Changing Moods about US banks continue to affect sentiment.

Technical Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.3375 S1: 1.3160 R2: 1.3390 S2: 1.3150
Chart pattern hints towards a bearish move. With the trading range of 1.3178-1.3350 levels for the day. Stochastic has given bearish crossover and is pointing down supported by momentum. Currency is holding support at the moving average level of 1.3240 if that is breached then there is a confirmation of bear note.

GBP R1: 1.4960 S1: 1. 4760 R2: 1.5000 S2: 1. 4750
Chart pattern signals a small downward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4790-1.4950 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down from the over bought levels .Currency is trading above the moving averages giving a caution signal.

rupeeweakenedon concerns of outflows-april 15.

Rupee weakened in opening deals as losses in Asian shares raised concerns foreigners may withdraw funds from the local market, with losses in other Asian units adding to the woes. U.S. Dollar took advantage of heavy profit taking in Asian Stocks and weakness in US stocks to finish stronger against the Euro and high yielding currencies. US Retail Sales were the major drag on the market falling -1.1% in March vs. a 0.3% rise forecast. PPI fell -1.2% in March and sparked concerns of deflation in the worlds largest economy. Looking ahead, March Core CPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously. Also released, April Industrial Output forecast at -1% vs. -15% previously.

Technical outlook:

USDINR charts opened on a bullish note and is expected to be on a bull run with good resistance seen at 50.20 levels and support at 49.85.Trading range for the day is expected to be between 49.88-50.1550.Currency is trading on the moving averages and stochastic is also seen trending up hinting towards a bull run but chart pattern shows that currency would test the open of previous day (49.88) before giving a bull run

Evening Report-April 13.

The Rupee gave up some of its early morning gains and closed at 49.88 levelswhen it rose to its highest level in 6 weeks on back of gains in stocks and upswing in some Asian currencies. Some banks bought dollars to cover their short dollar positions weighing in on the local unit. U.S. Dollar found support as U.S. traders started to return after the holiday weekend. Additionally, the economic docket is empty and wont provide any event risk for the day. Advance retail sales release is expected to show a 0.3% gain. A pick up in consumer consumption would keep with the current trend of improving fundamentals. The U.S. economy is starting to see the housing market stabilize, credit conditions loosen and optimism increase, which should all help spur domestic growth. Market is anticipating the release of Goldman Sachs reports tomorrow . If we start to see signs of increasing profits then equity markets could build on last weeks gains and lead to a weaker dollar in the short-term. Euro would reach as high as 1.3216 as it started to receive a bid tone after reaching an Asian trading session low of 1.3126. Increasing optimism has kept the single currency supported as it remains one of the higher yielding major currencies, despite the ECB cutting the benchmark rate to 1.25% last policy meeting. President Trichet signaled that the central bank would most likely keep rates on hold at its next meeting but would consider non-standard measures. Many market participants are beginning to speculate that the committee will be forced to take additional efforts as the regions economy continues to deteriorate, which could be a weighing factor on the pair. A break below this level could lead to a retrace back to 1.2500. Pound rose to 1.4750 against the dollar despite London markets being closed and an empty economic calendar. We may not see significant volatility this week from the currency as there is no major fundamental release scheduled. Therefore the broader theme of risk appetite should be the main driver of price action. Indeed, after the BoE left their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and forecasted that their current quantitative easing pan would take two months to complete interest rate expectations should not be a factor as well. The yen slid against the major counterparts on speculation that the global financial crisis is easing, spurring investors to buy higher-yielding assets financed with the Japanese currency. The yen also declined as Bank of Japan Deputy Governor said today monetary policy alone isn't enough to end the economic slump

Yen under pressure-April 13.

Japanese Yen remained pressured from the large rally in stocks although kept to a very tight range with low liquidity on Friday.

Technical Outlook:

R1: 100.85 S1:100.00
R2: 101.20 S2:99.80
Yen chart pattern indicates bullish movement for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 100.05 – 100.80 levels . Stochastic and momentum are seen trending up and currency is also trading above the moving averages.

Euro and Pound on mixed move on easter Monday-April 13.

Euro concerns about EU inflation were highlighted by German Inflation at 10 year lows and comments from ECB member Notwonty about the possibility of further rate cuts. Sterling fell in sympathy with Euro finding support near 1.4600 but struggling to test 1.4700 in light trading.

Technical View:

EURO R1: 1.3270 S1: 1.3080
R2: 1.3280 S2: 1.3060
Chart pattern hints towards a small downside correction for the day. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.3100-1.3250 levels for the day .Stochastic is seen trending down and currency is seen on a sell off note but caution required as market is likely to give a small upward correction before the fall.

GBP R1: 1.4760 S1: 1. 4560
R2: 1.4780 S2: 1. 4550
Chart pattern signals a mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4580-1.4740 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending down and Currency is trading between the moving averages giving a mixed signal. Chart pattern shows a flag pattern break on either side is needed for confirmation

Rupee strong on expectations of inflows-April 13.

Rupee opened higher as local shares rose following leads from regional stocks, raising expectations of capital flows that would support the currency.

Technical Outlook:
USDINR chart pattern shows a small downside correction for the day. With the trading range between 49.75-49.95 levels. With good support seen at 49.68 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.08 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down and the currency is expected to test the lower bollinger level of 49.75.But caution required as market trading at oversold area.

RUPEE APPRECIATED

Rupee appreciated by another 41 paise to almost one month high of 49.93 against the US currency in early trade on Monday on expectations of increased capital inflows by foreign funds as domestic bourses may open in positivterritory.
TECH VIEW APR 06 2009
USDINR is expected to appreciate for the day with trading range expected between 49.55-50.20 for the day. With good support seen at49.30 levels and key resistance is seen at 50.45 levels . Stochastic signals the appreciation of the Indian unit in near term . currency is also seen trading above the fast moving average thereby hinting that the correction would be only a short term and market stills needs further confirmation

YEN SLIDED

TECH VIEW APR 06 2009
YEN R1: 101.60 S1:99.80
R2: 101.80 S2:99.70
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to have a upside movement for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 99.90-101.50.levels. Stochastic is seen trending up giving room for a bullish correction.
yen slid to a five- month low as stocks rallied on speculation the global financial crisis is easing, damping demand for the currency as a refuge. The yen fell against all of the 16 most-actively traded currencies, sliding against New Zealand’s dollar to the lowest since November, on expectations Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh will signal today credit markets are thawing.

POUND HAS RISEN

Pound has risen about 80 pips to a maximum of 1.4781 minutes after the release of the CPI figures for February, although the pair has setback slightly, testing resistance level at the 1.4735 area.
TECH VIEW APR 06 2009
GBP R1: 1.5040 S1: 1. 4800
R2: 1.5060 S2: 1. 4790
chart pattern shows the currency to be on bull run for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4820-1.5030 levels for the day. Momentum is seen trending up indicating bull note to continue for the day. Day trend remains bull for the currency supporting buy side for the day trading.

EURO ROSE

Euro rose to a one-week high against the dollar on optimism a European Central Bank official will indicate slower rate cuts.
Tech view apr 06 2009
EURO R1: 1.3680 S1:1.3450
R2: 1.3690 S2:1.3440
chart pattern indicates the currency to move on bull run for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3490-1.3650levels for the day. Day Stochastic signals for slight upward correction for the day .Overall the currency is seen on buy side today.

evening report apr 02 2009

The rupee held on to its gains as a sharp rally in domestic shares boosted hopes for foreign capital inflows while higher Asian currencies underpinned sentimenU.S. Dollar Trading tested both sides of the recent range with Dollar strength in Asia and weakness in North America. US data was mixed with ADP Employment falling -742K vs. -655K forecast being offset by March ISM Manufacturing climbing to 36.3 vs. 35.8 previously. · The Euro early in Asia the downside was tested after it emerged that Obama considered bankruptcy the best policy for GM and Chrysler. After these reports were denied and stock around the world rallied the EURO tentatively rallied towards 1.33 levels.· The Japanese Yen was extremely volatile in Asia weakening after the Q1 Tankan Survey came in at a record low of -58. Almost immediately after this news of the Obama GM comments sent the USD/JPY plummeting aver 1 Yen lower. A denial from the white house saw the pair recover the rest of the day. · The Sterling outperformed other currencies as UK data improved with Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 39.1 vs. 34.9.

evening report apr 02 2009

The rupee held on to its gains as a sharp rally in domestic shares boosted hopes for foreign capital inflows while higher Asian currencies underpinned sentimenU.S. Dollar Trading tested both sides of the recent range with Dollar strength in Asia and weakness in North America. US data was mixed with ADP Employment falling -742K vs. -655K forecast being offset by March ISM Manufacturing climbing to 36.3 vs. 35.8 previously. · The Euro early in Asia the downside was tested after it emerged that Obama considered bankruptcy the best policy for GM and Chrysler. After these reports were denied and stock around the world rallied the EURO tentatively rallied towards 1.33 levels.· The Japanese Yen was extremely volatile in Asia weakening after the Q1 Tankan Survey came in at a record low of -58. Almost immediately after this news of the Obama GM comments sent the USD/JPY plummeting aver 1 Yen lower. A denial from the white house saw the pair recover the rest of the day. · The Sterling outperformed other currencies as UK data improved with Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 39.1 vs. 34.9.