Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Euro slightly bullish but sterling very volatile._April 23.

Euro rallied through 1.3000 after the market failed to sustain a break of 1.2900. Heavy EUR/GBP buying supported as did concern about GM’s survival in the US session. EUR/JPY remained buoyant as the major surged but late Dow weakness hurt sentiment. . Looking ahead, April PMI services are forecast at 41 vs. 40.9 while the Manufacturing is forecast at 34.5 vs. 33.9 previously. Sterling experienced a lot of volatility after a host of GBP data released overnight. Unemployment data was showing some positives with the Claimant count at 73k vs. 120k forecast. The BOE minutes showed a 9-0 vote for the continued use of Quantitative easing to the tune of 75Bn Pounds. Also released, the UK Government Budget which contained downward revisions of the UK GDP to 3.5% in 2009 and induced Fresh Pound weakness. Looking ahead, April CBI Orders forecast at -54 vs. -58 previously.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.3115 S1: 1.2930 R2: 1.3140 S2: 1.2920
Chart pattern hints towards the possibility of small upward correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.2940 -1.3110 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving averages showing slight bullishness but Stochastic and momentum are also supporting the view.
GBP R1: 1.4640 S1: 1. 4380 R2: 1.4660 S2: 1. 4350
Chart pattern shows a sideways note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4390-1.4630 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up .Currency is trading below the moving averages only crossovers can confirm the trend

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