Rupee fell and closed at 46.55 against the greenback due to month-end dollar demand and sustained capital outflows amid weakening dollar overseas. Dollar dips on US bailout plan uncertainty .US economic fears have been overshadowed by continuing negotiations surrounding the US financial rescue package but still point to a renewed downturn in the economy which will pose dollar risks .Euroand Pound had a rangebound movement .Import prices in Germany slipped 0.8% which was lower than the 1.0% decline anticipated by market participants. However the annual rate continued to hold steady at the record high reading of 9.3% which only supports the ECB’s hawkish bias that upside inflation risks remains high for the economy. . However, ECB voting member Lucas Papademos warned that the financial crisis leaves banks throughout the Euro-Zone more susceptible to shocks and credit risks and went on to say that the economic downturn may last throughout the rest of the year.yen slid as Consumer price growth in Japan slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% but continued to hold above the BoJ’s 2.0% limit for the second consecutive month. Meawhile, the core CPI, which excludes fresh foods, continued to hold steady at the record high reading of 2.4%.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Australian Dollar stayed inside the recent range
Australian Dollar stayed inside the recent range initially being able to trade above 0.8400 on increasing risk appetite and AUD/JPY support. Closed lower due to an increase in USD demand but was well supported on the crosses.
Tech Outlook;
AUD R1: 0. 8440 S1:0.8250
R2: 0.8460 S2: 0.8240
Chart pattern supports mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8280-0.8420 levels .Both stochastic and momentum are seen trending down but parabolic is supporting bullish movement.
Rupee weakened on the back of global uncertainty-sep 26.
Rupee weakened a little on expectations that foreign funds could pull out of local stocks following bearishness in Asian stocks as uncertainty shrouded a $700 billion US bailout plan. USDINR is expected to give a bull run for the day. With the trading range expected between 46.10-46.55.Support is seen at 46.06 levels and key resistance is seen at 46.68 levels. Currency is seen trading above the moving averages and stochastic is also giving indication of bullish move.
Euro and Pound having a rangebound movement-sep 26
Euro although initially bid into the US open on weak US data the Euro fell heavily for the remaining part of the day on speculation that the Bailout plan was close to implementation. Bounced off lows as oil popped higher into the US close. German GFK consumer climate was slightly better at 1.8 vs. 1.3 expected in October. Looking ahead for German Import prices seen at -1% . Sterling fell heavily as it broke the downside support at 1.8500 on USD strength. Cable was the heaviest against the USD yesterday as UK fundamentals still point to a weak economic picture.
Tech Outlook:
EURO: R1: 1.4730 S1: 1.4550
R2: 1.4750 S2:1. 4540
Euro is expected to be on a mixed note for the day. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4570-1.4720 levels for the day. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down supporting the bear note but caution required as currency is seen trading above the moving averages.
GBP R1: 1.8650 S1: 1.8450
R2: 1.8670 S2: 1.8430
pound is expected to trade mixed with the trading range of 1.8290-1.8480 levels. Stochastic and Momentum are seen trending down hinting towards a small downside correction. Market is trading between the fast and slow moving averages but parabolic is giving bullish signals .
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Australian Dollar traded briefly-sep 25.
Australian Dollar traded briefly above .8400 but was unable to hold the gains as US stocks came off and Commodities fell in late trading. Buffets Goldman Sachs news lifted the AUD off lows during the Asian session.
Tech outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8480 S1:0.8250
R2: 0.8490 S2: 0.8230
Chart pattern supports bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8270-0.8470 levels .Both stochastic and momentum are seen trending up giving bullish signals . parabolic is also supporting it.
Euro and pound rallied but drifted back-sep 25.
R2: 1.4850 S2:1. 4550
Euro is expected to have a small bull run for the day. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4590-1.4800 levels for the day. Stochastic is giving signals for the possibility of upward correction supported by Momentum and currency is also seen trading above the moving averages.
GBP R1: 1.8650 S1: 1.8450
R2: 1.8670 S2: 1.8440
pound is expected to trade in green. with the trading range of 1.8470-1.8640 levels. Stochastic is seen flat but Momentum is still on positive territory. Market is also trading above the moving averages and parabolic is also giving bullish signals .
Rupee weakened -sep 25
Rupee weakened in early trade due to dollar demand from companies to repay overseas loans amid low volumes but expectations of central bank intervention kept a check on sharp falls.
USDINR is seen on a bull note with the trading range of 45.95-46.35.With good support seen at 45.90 levels and key resistance is seen at 46.40 levels .Stochastic and momentum are confirming the bull trend. Currency is also seen trading above the moving averages.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Evening Report-sept 23.
Australian Dollar rallied on the back of huge gains in Commodities
Australian Dollar rallied on the back of huge gains in Commodities. AUD/JPY remained buoyant even as equities slumped in testimony to AUD strength. With the AUD falling more than most currencies in the recent USD rally, the potential upside is greater than most given the grossly bearish USD outlook.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8500 S1:0.8340
R2: 0.8510 S2: 0.8330
Chart pattern supports mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8350-0.8490 levels .Momentum and stochastic has given a turn and small downside correction is expected .But currency is still trading above the moving averages.
Euro and pound had a bull rally-sep 23.
Euro surged to its largest one day gain this year on broad USD weakness and the single currency’s status as the world’s second reserve currency. Reports of central bank diversification out of US dollars and a record rally in Oil combined to support the Euro. Looking ahead for July Industrial Orders M/M seen down -0.7% from -0.3% in June. Sterling gained in sympathy with the Euro although at a slower pace given some continued weak data. UK Right move Index fell -1.0% in September. Cable surged through 1.8500 with stop loss propelling it quickly to 1.8600 before settling back into the US close.
Tech outlook
EURO: R1: 1.4890 S1: 1.4710
R2: 1.4920 S2:1. 4700
Euro is expected to trade on a bull note. With the trading range expected between 1.4720-1.4880 levels . currency is seen trading above the moving averages and stochastic is seen flat and caution required as it is trading in the overbought levels. parabolic is also giving bullish signals .
GBP R1: 1.8690 S1: 1. 8460
R2: 1.8700 S2: 1.8450
pound is expected to have a bullish note with the trading range of 1.8480-1.8680 levels. Stochastic and momentum are seen flat and it is likely to give a downward correction as it is seen in a overbought levels but market is seen trading above the moving averages .
Rupee gained after a lower open
Rupee eased in early trade as higher oil prices revive worries about a widening trade deficit and banks sold the greenback expecting inflows from foreign funds as local share were seen on a positive note.A lower rate in offshore non-deliverable forwards market also prompted some banks to cut dollar positions. USDINR is expected to give a small bull run with the trading range expected between 45.30-45.76 levels. With good support seen at 45.20 levels and key resistance is seen at 45.82 levels. Stochastic is seen trending up supported by momentum.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Evening Report-sep 22.
Rupee trimmed its gains and closed at 45.44 levels after the stock market turned negative after a strong start and offshore related dollar demand kept some pressure on the local unit. . Indian unit depreciated because banks continued to buy dollars to meet persistent demand from oil companies and other importers amid weak supply.U.S.Dollar fell more than 1 percent as sceptical investors questioned whether a $700 billion U.S.rescue plan to bail out banks will help solve the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. The package would give sweeping powers to the U.S. Treasury to buy up toxic mortgage-related debt from financial firms including U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks. Euro drifted higher, rallying firmly above the 1.45 level. With no data release risk sentiments are dominating attention as the markets react to the US Treasury’s proposal to concretely address the credit crunch.GBPUSD moved on a bullish note and tested 1.8477 levels as the Rightmove house price index declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling 3.3%. Declining home values paired with tightening credit conditions have certainly taken a toll on Europe’s second largest economy and conditions may only get worse as the U.K. is on the brink of a recession. Meanwhile the BoE quarterly bulletin stated that the central bank expects the downturn in the global economy to worsen. USDJPY rose and tested 106.90 levels as all industry activity index increased to 0.8% from -0.9% in June due to an improved reading in the tertiary and construction index. Meanwhile, supermarket sales fell 1.0% signaling that Japanese consumers may continue to cutback on spending has they face higher living costs. Furthermore, convenience store sales slipped to 5.3% which suggests that spending conditions may remain subdued for the rest of the year
Australian Dollar followed bull rally.-sep 22.
Australian Dollar was possibly the biggest gainer from the US government bailout plan as waves of AUD/JPY selling subsided and stocks look recovered from the crash earlier in the week. Broad based gain in Commodities also supported.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8450 S1:0.8240
R2: 0.8480 S2: 0.8230
Chart pattern supports bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8250-0.8430 levels .Momentum are seen trending up giving bullish signals and parabolic is also supporting it. Stochastic is trading at overbought levels and a small downside correction is expected.
Euro and Pound continued its bull rally.
Euro gained again today after falling back on Thursday, surging towards the 1.4500 level into the weekend. Large gains in Oil and USD weakness the driving factors. German PPI in August fell -0.6% as cheaper oil filtered through the economy. Sterling continued its recovery from multi year lows and surged higher on USD weakness. The brake and close above the 1.80 levels suggest that freefall that the pound has experienced may be bottoming in the short term. Looking ahead for September Nationwide House Price expected to fall -1.6% M/M
Tech Outlook:
EURO: R1: 1.4620 S1: 1.4380
R2: 1.4650 S2:1. 4350
Euro is expected to trade on a bull note. With the trading range expected between 1.4420-1.4580 levels . currency is seen trading above the moving averages and stochastic is also supporting the bull note. parabolic is also giving bullish signals .
GBP R1: 1.8480 S1: 1. 8240
R2: 1.8500 S2: 1.8230
pound is expected to have a bullish note with the trading range of 1.8250-1.8460 levels. Stochastic is giving bullish signals supported by Momentum and market is also seen trading above the moving averages .
Rupee seen on mixed note-sep 22.
Rupee eased in early trade as higher oil prices revive worries about a widening trade deficit and banks sold the greenback expecting inflows from foreign funds as local share were seen on a positive note.A lower rate in offshore non-deliverable forwards market also prompted some banks to cut dollar positions.USDINR is expected to stay in red with the trading range expected between 45.17-45.60 levels. With good support seen at 45.10 levels and key resistance is seen at 45.70 levels. Chart pattern indicates a bear note. Stochastic is also seen trending down supporting the view.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Evening Report-sept 19.
Rupee closed at 45.82/84 per dollar from the previous close of 46.42/43. The currency was helped by a rally in local shares which renewed expectations of foreign fund inflows but the dollar's strength overseas is likely to curb sharp gains. An empty U.S. economic calendar will leave price action at the mercy of the broader economic winds and the interpretation of the potential impact of the plan from the U.S. policy makers. The current equity rally should extend through the U.S. trading sessions which may add to dollar bullish sentiment. Only removal of toxic assets from companies balance sheets will allow the economy to move forward and if the housing market rebound then the U.S. economy will become more attractive for investors. Although the FOMC is expected to leave rates on hold for the foreseeable future, the chances have increased that the BoE and ECB will have to cut their benchmark rates which should add dollar support over the medium term. EURUSD erased some of its gains as German producer prices pulled back from a 27 year high, falling 0.6% . Meanwhile, the yearly figure also slipped to 8.1% from the record high reading of 8.9%, which suggests that upward prices pressures have peaked and should moderate over the following months. Falling oil prices has helped to curb upside inflation risks for Europe’s largest economy but after excluding energy, factory prices were still up by 3.5% and remains well above the ECB’s 2% target. Slowing prices pressures suggests that the ECB may soften their hawkish bias going forward but may continue to hold a neutral policy stance for the rest of the year as the central bank abides by their principal mandate to ensure price stability for the Euro-Zone. USDJPY jumped over 300 points as the leading economic index for Japan inched higher to 91.4 from 91.0 in June. Rampant inflation paired with stagnant growth has certainly lowered growth expectations for the world’s second largest economy and conditions may only get worse export demands from the global economy falters. Sterling dropped 1 percent versus a rallying dollar with the U.S. currency surging as its government mulled over a more comprehensive solution to tackle the credit crisis. Speculation had grown that the BoE may institute an emergency rate cut. The British housing market is in similar trouble as the U.S. and the central bank may need to take measures to turn it s fortunes around. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in 96 bps of cuts over the next 12 months which could start to weigh on the Sterling going forward.
Australian Dollar tossed and turned-sep 19.
Australian Dollar tossed and turned with the market sentiment, initially under severe pressure from heavy AUD/JPY selling and mounting stocks losses before reversing sharply into the US close. Gains were broad based and were helped along from buoyant commodities and Gold’s recent gains.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8180 S1:0.7950
R2: 0.8190 S2: 0.7940
Chart pattern supports bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.7980-0.8160 levels .Both stochastic and momentum are seen trending up giving bullish signals but parabolic has its own doubt in the trend.
Euro and Pound on mixed note-sep 19.
Euro Initially gaining sharply as the US market continued to look extremely fragile trading up to the 1.4500 level before consolidating. News of comprehensive action sent the Euro down against the dollar but was able to gain against the JPY as risk appetite picked up. Looking ahead for August German PPI expected at -0.4% down form 2.0% m/m in July. . Sterling received a boost from very strong retail sales in August released at 1.2%.
Tech outlook:
EURO: R1: 1.4370 S1: 1.4050
R2: 1.4390 S2:1. 4040
Euro is expected to have a very volatile day with mixed trend. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4070-1.4350-levels for the day. Stochastic is giving signals for the possibility of downside correction supported by Momentum .But caution required as as market is still trading above the moving averages.
GBP R1: 1.8220 S1: 1. 7850
R2: 1.8230 S2: 1.7830
pound is expected to have a mixed note with the trading range of 1.7860-1.8200 levels. Stochastic is giving signals for the possibility of downside correction supported by Momentum .But caution required as as market is still trading above the moving averages and parabolic is also giving bullish signals .
Rupee strengthened-sep 19.
Rupee strengthened against the U.S. dollar because some banks sold the greenback anticipating inflows from foreign funds on views that local shares may rise. The positive stocks overseas have triggered selling . However, mild dollar demand from importers prevented a sharp rise in Indian unit.
Tech Outlook
USDINR open on a lower note and is expected to trade in the range of 46.10-46.40.With good support seen at 46.05 levels break of which will see rupee below 46 and key resistance is seen at 46.45 levels. Currency is seen trading below the moving averages and stochastic is giving correction from the overbought area.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Evening report-sep 17
The rupee rose by 60 paise to 46.28 against the greenback in early trade following RBI's move to sell dollar to augment supply in the domestic forex market. Rupee trimmed gains in afternoon session as most banks bought the greenback to avail the arbitrage in the non-deliverable forward market. Currency closed at 46.32 against the greenback owing to recovery in other Asian bourses and intervention of RBI to inject liquidity into the system following collapse of two global financial giants, and said it would continue to sell dollars Economic calendar for the U.S. is fairly light but volatility Persist as the U.S. docket lacks market moving potential . The current account deficit is expected to increase to -$179.3B from -$176.4B in the first quarter, which could lower growth expectations for the world’s biggest economy as global demands waver. Meanwhile, Housing starts and building permits are anticipated to fall to 950K and 925K from 965K and 937K respectively, which could fuel bearish sentiment for the dollar. However an unexpected rise in the housing data could provide dollar support, which would allow the greenback to extend its gains against the major currencies. Euro fell back after hitting a high of 1.4268 during the overnight Asian session, and has held within a tight range between 1.4120 – 1.4271 On the economic docket, the Euro-Zone trade deficit widened to a new record high of 6.4B from a revised reading of 3.5B in June and may fall further into negative territory as foreign demands fade. Slowing demands paired with stalled growth suggests that that economic activity may continue to falter for the rest of the year and could force the ECB to lower the interest rate by next year. Meanwhile construction output fell for the fifth consecutive month, slipping to -3.3% from a revised reading of -3.0% in June. Pound gave back gains after reaching an intra day high of 1.7980 and slipped down to1.7784 and remains range-bound between 1.7780 – 1.7980. U.K. labor market weakened further as jobless claims surged to a fresh record high of 32.5K. The claimant count rate increased as well rising to 2.8% from 2.7%. The ILO unemployment rate ticked higher as firms continued to cutback on employment rising to 5.5% from 5.4% in June. The bigger than rise in unemployment suggests that economic activity may deteriorate further as firms continue to cutback on employment, which may lead the BoE to reduce the benchmark interest rate by next year. USDJPY dipped to an intraday low of 105.14, but bound back to hold above 105.70. The Bank of Japan voted unanimously to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% as the world’s second largest economy continues to face high inflation and slowing growth. The central bank noted that economic activity remains sluggish and went on to say that tensions in global financial markets have increased and there are downside risks to the world economy. With Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and AIG taking a $85B infusion from the Fed, the BoJ has increased their efforts to calm the markets by injecting 5.5 trillion yen .
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Evening Report-sept 16.
The rupee ends at 46.93/46.94 per dollar, from the previous close of 46.05/06, hit by concerns about capital outflows from the local share market which was offsetting dollar sales by state banks. U.S. docket is filled with event risk in addition to the troubles of the financial sector. Inflation data is due out which is expected to show a slight easing of prices as falling oil prices have reduced energy costs. The diminishing threat of price pressures may add fuel to speculation that the Fed will cut rates at its rate decision today. Credit Suisse Swap Index is also pricing in 23 bps worth of cuts,a dovish statement following the decision could add to the dollar’s recent weakness. However, dollar bulls have to be encouraged that the greenback has held up despite the historic events that have transpired, which could set up for continued strength once the panic eases. Euro has remained range bound as investors sit on the sidelines with the troubles of the U.S. financial system continuing and a Fed rate decision on tap. The EURUSD spent most of the overnight trading session trading between 1.4304-1.4160. A better than expected ZEW Survey reading failed to spark any bullish price action as German investor confidence improved to 41.1 from -55.5, which far exceeded the -53 that was expected. Pound was similarly range bound trading between 1.7782 and 1.8000 despite inflation continuing to increase. Consumer prices rose to 4.7% from 4.4% which will require BoE Governor King as to why the 3% threshold was breached for another quarter. British housing sector is in dire straits. USDJPY has seemed to have found support at 103.60 as the pair has risen back above 104.50 since bouncing from that price level. Risk aversion is still dominating that market but a possible solution for AiG’s troubles has eased some of the panic that has gripped the markets.
Australian Dollar gained -sep 16.
Australian Dollar gained against the USD initially but came under extreme selling pressure from the AUD/JPY. As US stocks continued to plunge support for the AUD finally gave way and late US trading saw the Aussie plunge. Looking Ahead for September RBA minutes.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8080 S1:0.7850
R2: 0.8090 S2: 0.7840
Chart pattern supports bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.7860-0.8070 levels .MACD is seen in the oversold area but is seen giving bullish crossovers parabolic is also supporting the bull note.
Rupee weakened to fresh two-year lows
The rupee weakened to fresh two-year lows on concerns about capital outflows following upheaval on Wall Street. One-month dollar/rupee futures was firm taking cues from underlying spot market where banks bought dollars anticipating demand from foreign funds. Health of financial markets has become a matter of concern after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy weakening sentiment for share investments. USDINR is highly volatile and is expected to continue its bull rally .With the trading range of 46.10-46.65 levels .Good support is seen at 46.08 and key resistance is seen at 46.75 levels. Stochastic and momentum is only pointing towards a upward rally caution is required as market is at overbought levels.
Euro and pound remains sideways-sep 16.
Euro traded in an extremely volatile fashion gaining to highs in the Asian session before been sold off quite heavily in illiquid conditions falling over 400 pips. Q2 Labor Costs fell to 2.7% from 3.3%. Looking ahead for Euro zone August CPI is expected down -0.2%. Also released September ZEW Economic Sentiment expected at -53 from -55.5. Sterling also traded in an extremely volatile fashion breaking above 1.80 early Asia before falling heavily on GBY/JPY sales. GBY/JPY fell over 600 pips from Friday nights close. August CPI is expected to rise 0.5%. August Retail Price Index expected to gain 0.4%
Tech Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4350 S1: 1.4080
R2: 1.4360 S2:1. 4040
Euro is expected to have a volatile day with mixed trend. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4103-1.4320-levels for the day. Stochastic is giving slight correction downside .Momentum is seen in a neutral level but more inclined towards an upward correction.
GBP R1: 1.8060 S1: 1. 7850
R2: 1.8080 S2: 1.7830
pound is expected to stay on a mixed note with the trading range of 1.7860-1.8050 levels. Momentum is supporting the bull note for the day. stochastic is seen flat and Currency is also seen trading above the moving averages.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Evening Report-sept 15.
Indian Rupee fell to a two-year low of 46 against the greenback in late morning deals owing to weak dollar overseas and a sharp fall in local stocks. The dollar was stung but has remained relatively strong given the nature of the events that have transpired, which could see the greenback look to erase some of its losses. However there still looms the issue of AIG, which has asked the Fed for a $40 billion bridge loan in an attempt to raise capital and prevent credit downgrades that would cripple the company. The overall impact of the events of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch could lead to U.S. investors adding to the dollar weakness. An expected decline in Augusts’ industrial production of 0.3% will add to the dour economic picture for the U.S. following the unexpected drop in retail sales. Euro and Pound have given back some of their earlier gains as the BoE and ECB have taken measures to infuse liquidity into their economies. The Euro tested 1.4080 after reaching as high as 1.4479.In response to the failure of Lehman Brothers Fed has expanded the collateral it will accept for emergency loans to include equity as it attempts to minimize potential disruptions to the financial system. ECB and BoE also took measures to add liquidity .Yen continues to rally as risk aversion dominates the markets on the heels of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch Purchase. A historic day in the financial markets that will change the landscape of the U.S. banking industry forever had sunk the dollar against most major currencies.
Australian Dollar reclaimed in early trade.
Australian Dollar reclaimed the .8100 level and continued to climb into the US session as risk appetite returned and gold made good gains. AUD/JPY surged higher
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8330 S1:0.8170
R2: 0.8340 S2: 0.8150
Chart pattern supports bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8180-0.8320 levels .Relative Strength index and stochastic have turned from the oversold levels and is seen trending up.
Rupee having a bull rally-sep 15.
A big fall in rupee was limited even as local shares tumbled as some exporters were selling dollars. Local shares fell over 5%, as sentiment was hit on news that Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy-run banks were also said to be sporadically selling dollars on behalf of Reserve Bank of India.
Tech Outlook:
USDINR is expected to continue its bull rally and is expected to trade in the range of 45.80-46.00 levels .Good support is seen at 45.78 and key resistance is seen at 46.20 levels. Stochastic and momentum is only pointing towards a upward rally.
Euro and Pound opened on higher note-sep 15.
The Euro Jumped higher as the USD came under broad pressure into the weekend. News that China may diversify its FX reserves also helped to buoy the Euro. July Industrial Production was confirmed weak at -0.3% from -0.2% expected. Looking ahead for Q2 Labor Costs release. The Sterling rebounded in line with the Euro as the USD was weakened. GBP/JPY gains supported. UPDATE GBP/USD Breaks Above 1.80·
Tech Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4550 S1: 1.4320
R2: 1.4560 S2:1. 4260
Euro bears have reversed there positions. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4350-1.4520-levels for the day. Stochastic and momentum is seen trending up and is expected to give a good bullish movement.
GBP R1: 1.8230 S1: 1. 8010
R2: 1.8240 S2: 1. 7950
Pound bulls are back and the Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.8020-1.8220 levels. Momentum and stochastic are supporting the bull note for the day. Currency is seen trading above the moving averages.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Evening Report-sept 10.
Rupee's fall was limited and closed around 45.13 as two state-run banks were said to be selling dollars persistently. The selling led to talk that it could be for Reserve Bank of India. Apart from the selling by nationalized banks, there is no other major supply. However, rupee remained weak because of dollar demand from NDF markets and oil companies.
The dollar was on pause versus other major currencies ,as traders looked ahead to a slew of economic data coming on Friday including key inflation data and a reading on consumer sentiment.
Euro would reach as high as 1.4177 but the typical statements failed to generate any significant Euro bullish momentum which saw the EURUSD fall back below 1.4120.Currency reversed its Gains From Trichet’s Reaffirmation of Price Stability . ECB was focused on preventing second round effects of inflation. The central bank leader also stated that growth in the region would rebound after a dip in growth during the second and third quarters. A rebound in French industrial production of 1.5% in July from –0.6% the month prior supports those statements .Currency is expected to have a downside direction as there are no signs of a reversal. But the pair would slightly incline in attempts to retest the 1.42 levels. The trading range is between the key support at 1.3935 and the key resistance at 1.4280
Pound was finding support throughout the overnight session until its trade report showed the deficit widening to 7.667 billion on falling imports. The U.K. consumer has been battered by high inflation and a declining housing market which has led to speculation that the BoE will need to lower interest rates in the near term to soften the economy’s landing which continues to weigh on pound. Direction for sterling remains downside whereas a successful breakout of resistance levels of 1.7680 will result in vigorous upside movements. Sideways movement is expected as momentum indicators are pointing to the downside while direction indicators are still neutral as seen on the MACD indicator .
Japan's wholesale price inflation rate remained close to a 27-year high in August and the current account surplus narrowed for the fifth straight month .Higher prices of petroleum products were primarily responsible for the higher inflation rate. For JPY upside direction remains intact where correction to the downside was because of the pair is seen in an overbought area for a long time. The pair has entered a strong upside channel as trading remains above 106.60 supported by direction indicators that are trying to follow the medium term trend..With resistance at 108.50 levels
Rupee depreciates to a near two-year low
Australian Dollar had some bounce-sep 10.
Australian Dollar initially bounced with the Euro but took the brunt of the Commodity sell off heading back towards the key 0.8000 level. July Retail Sales were mixed as a change in reporting made the number harder to digest and more volatile. The seasonally adjusted figure showed a jump of 1.4% much more than the 0.5% expected but was largely ignored.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8130 S1:0.7950
R2: 0.8140 S2: 0.7920
Chart pattern supports a bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.7970-0.8120 levels .Relative Strength index and stochastic are seen trending up supporting a slight upward correction.
Euro and Sterling recovered from selling-sep 10.
Tech Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4260 S1: 1.4040
R2: 1.4280 S2:1. 4020
Euro is expected to trade in a mixed note for the day . Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4070-1.4240-levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending up and momentum remains silent on the issue.
GBP R1: 1.7780 S1: 1. 7540
R2: 1.7790 S2: 1. 7520
Pound is expected to give a upward rally .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7560-1.7760 levels. Momentum is seen trending up and stochastic is also seen on a bull note.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Australian Dollar surged -sep 09
Australian Dollar surged on AUD/JPY buying early in Asia but reversed direction as Oil and the Euro fell heavily during the rest of the day and JPY support was removed. RBA Governor Stevens spoke earlier in the day and commentated that the falling AUD will not hamper its efforts to combat inflation. Looking ahead for Australia July Retail Sales are expected to rebound to +0.5% from the -1.0% in June. Also released the July NAB Business Confidence Index.
AUD R1: 0. 8170 S1:0.7950
R2: 0.8220 S2: 0.7920
Chart pattern supports a bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.7960-0.8120 levels .Relative Strength index and stochastic are seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving average supporting the bear note.
Rupee weakened but fall was limited -sep 09
Rupee weakened in early trade weighed down by lower Asian stock markets and weaker regional currencies but the central bank may intervene to curb a steep fall. USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 44.94-44.73 levels. Good support is seen at 44.68 and key resistance is seen at 45.00 levels. Chart pattern shows no signs of reversal and continues its bull rally. But slight downside correction is possible as stochastic trades in overbought levels. MACD is also seen in bullish territory.
Euro and pound gained in early trade-sep 09.
EURO R1: 1.4135 S1: 1.4000
R2: 1.4200 S2:1. 3990
Euro continues to move towards the bear territory . Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4040-1.4140-levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down but a ray of hope is given by Momentum which is seen trending up supporting a small upside correction.
GBP R1: 1.7680 S1: 1. 7420
R2: 1.7700 S2: 1. 7400
Pound slips back to bearish territory and is expected to give a upward rally .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7430-1.7660 levels. Momentum is seen trending up but stochastic is showing possibility downside correction.
EVENING REPORT-SEP 09.
The rupee fell to near two-year lows tracking weaker regional currencies while lower shares triggered concern about further foreign fund outflows.US dollar Jumps To New Multi-Month Highs against the majors .US July pending home sales and the wholesale inventories report are the major economic releases expected in the New York.The euro snapped eight days of declines against the dollar and rose even as German trade surplus narrowed more than expected in August as exports declined while imports recorded strong increase.Fading demands paired with stalled growth has certainly taken a toll on Europe’s largest economy, and may lead the ECB to lower the benchmark interest rate ahead of schedule as the growth outlook turns bleak Pound Finds Support even as The growth outlook for the economy remains bleak as manufacturing activity fell for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level in more than a year. Manufacturing production dipped to -1.4% in July, while industrial production slipped to a three year low of -1.9%. Higher input costs paired with slowing demands from the global economy has clearly weighed on the U.K. economy, and conditions may only get worse as Europe’s second largest economy is on the brink of a recession.yen surged broadly on a flight to safety as investors concluded U.S. action to save two top mortgage agencies did not alter fundamentals.Australian dollar showed weakness against its major counterparts following the release of several lackluster economic reports including flat Australian retail sales, negative business confidence figures and a lower-than-expected decrease in home loans.
Monday, September 8, 2008
EVENING REPORT-SEP 08.
Rupee erased most of its gains made in early trade and closed at 42.59 levels as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil companies. Some banks also bought U.S dollar noting that it regained its strength against major currencies .A further recovery in dollar may weaken rupee more. Empty economic calendar will leave the dollar price action subject to the ongoing interpretation of the potential impact of the U.S. government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Although the greenback gained against the Sterling and Euro overnight, weakness against the Yen shows that the move has sparked concerns that the move is a sign that the U.S. financial sector has more cracks to be revealed. The Euro failed to break support at 1.4160 again after a drop in investor confidence. Concern generated by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover pushed the EURUSD as high as 1.4430 before the pair nosedived as traders tried to decipher its potential impact. Soft Euro was pushed lower as the Sentix investor confidence reading fell to -20.2. The current situation component sharply fell to -12.00 from 0.0 as lingering credit concerns and a declining economy soured sentiment. Pound saw similar price action as the Euro with initial strength giving way to profound weakness, leading to a fall of over 400 bps .U.K. producer prices unexpectedly dropped the most in 22 years on lower oil prices and declining raw material costs, which added to the Sterling’s weakness .Prices at the factory gate also fell 0.6% in August pulling the annualized rate to 9.7%.Dollar rocketed higher versus the yen, rising to 109 after hitting a month and a half low of 105.55 in the previous session. With global stocks surging higher as investors cheered the government bailout of Fannie and Freddie and increased risk appetite led currency traders to sell the lower-yielding yen.
EVENING REPORT-SEP 08.
Rupee erased most of its gains made in early trade and closed at 42.59 levels as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil companies. Some banks also bought U.S dollar noting that it regained its strength against major currencies .A further recovery in dollar may weaken rupee more. Empty economic calendar will leave the dollar price action subject to the ongoing interpretation of the potential impact of the U.S. government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Although the greenback gained against the Sterling and Euro overnight, weakness against the Yen shows that the move has sparked concerns that the move is a sign that the U.S. financial sector has more cracks to be revealed. The Euro failed to break support at 1.4160 again after a drop in investor confidence. Concern generated by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover pushed the EURUSD as high as 1.4430 before the pair nosedived as traders tried to decipher its potential impact. Soft Euro was pushed lower as the Sentix investor confidence reading fell to -20.2. The current situation component sharply fell to -12.00 from 0.0 as lingering credit concerns and a declining economy soured sentiment. Pound saw similar price action as the Euro with initial strength giving way to profound weakness, leading to a fall of over 400 bps .U.K. producer prices unexpectedly dropped the most in 22 years on lower oil prices and declining raw material costs, which added to the Sterling’s weakness .Prices at the factory gate also fell 0.6% in August pulling the annualized rate to 9.7%.Dollar rocketed higher versus the yen, rising to 109 after hitting a month and a half low of 105.55 in the previous session. With global stocks surging higher as investors cheered the government bailout of Fannie and Freddie and increased risk appetite led currency traders to sell the lower-yielding yen.
Australian Dollar extremely volatile -sep 08.
The Australian Dollar was extremely volatile bearing the brunt of the carry trade unwind with a 500 pip trading range on the AUD/JPY setting the stage. Stable stocks and an AUD/USD rebound into the US session close helped reverse sentiment. Aussie rose after the U.S. government seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, restoring confidence among investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8400 S1:0.8230
R2: 0.8420 S2: 0.8220
Chart pattern supports a bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8240-0.8380 levels .Relative Strength index and stochastic are seen trending up and currency is also seen trading above the moving average supporting the bull note.
Dollar dipped against Euro and Pound in opening deals-sep 08.
The Euro traded lower as EUR/JPY was sold hard in the Asian session then continued to track lower before US data allowed a recovery. German Industrial Production was considerable weaker than expected at -1.8% vs. forecasts of -0.5%. The dollar dipped against the Euro on speculation that reports this week on U.S. home and retail sales will see a decline· The Sterling pretty much tracked the Euro losing heavily via the GBY/JPY in Asian and rebounding as US Unemployment jumped to 6.1%. Sterling was also able to gain against the Euro as the rebound became a broad based Pound rally. Looking ahead for August PPI is released expected lower at -1.2% as cheaper Oil filters through the economy.
Tech Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4525 S1: 1.4260
R2: 1.4550 S2:1.4230
Euro market trimmed its losses and is expected to give a bull move for the day . Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4280-1.4500 levels for the day. Stochastic and Momentum are seen trending up supporting the bull note.
GBP R1: 1.8080 S1: 1. 7810
R2: 1.8100 S2: 1. 7790
Pound has reversed its losses and is expected to give a upward rally .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7830-1.8060 levels. Momentum and stochastic have taken good support and is seen trending up and currency has already tested the first parabolic resistance level.
Rupee rose in opening deals-Sep 08.
Rupee rose 0.67 per cent in opening deals in anticipation of capital flows into the stock market after India overcame a hurdle for a civilian nuclear deal with the United States.
Tech Outlook:
USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 43.98-44.35 levels. Currency has given a lower open and is seen trading below the moving averages is expected to test the lower Band levels. Good support is seen at 43.92 levels and key resistance is seen at 44.40 levels. Stochastic is seen trending down supporting the downside correction.
Friday, September 5, 2008
EVENING REPORT-SEP 05.
Rupee fell to its lowest as a stock market slide triggered concerns of further foreign fund outflows.A widening trade deficit added to funding concernsU.S.Dollar slipped from highs against many major currencies ahead of the August U.S. employment report, while an exodus from riskier bets such as leveraged carry trades amid a sharp fall in stock markets.Dollar's resilience in the face of the plunge in U.S. share prices and continued paring back of rate hike expectations is noteworthy.EURUSD seen mixed though Industrial production in Germany fell more than expected, sliding to -0.6 from a revised reading of 1.5% in June. Production activity declined as durable good orders dropped 6.5% followed by a 3.7% drop in capital goods. The economy outlook for the Euro-Zone has clearly deteriorated, and conditions may only get worse as the global economy weaken.USDJPY strengthened Japanese business investments plunged to -6.5% from -4.9% in the first quarter as firms grappled with higher input costs amid fading demands. The release failed to meet expectations for an improved reading of 0.9%, stoking growth fears for the world’s second largest economy. Capital spending excluding software fell for the fifth consecutive month, slipping to -7.6% in the second quarter. Sterling recovered from a new multi-year low against the dollar as the Bank of England retained its key interest rate at 5% for the fifth straight month as concerns over inflation overshadowed fears of recession
Aud weakens-sep 05.
Australian Dollar recovered with the Euro into the US session before more commodity weakness and strong US data renewed AUD weakness. Large Falls in US stocks lead to a carry trade capitulation .
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8230 S1:0.8040
R2: 0.8240 S2: 0.8030
Chart pattern supports a bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8050-0. 8220 levels .Relative Strength index is seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving average.
Euro and pound breached all support levels-Sep 05.
Euro weighed down by Trichet comments that highlighted risks to the downside for economic growth .ECB held rates at 4.25% Also weighing was the July German Industrial Orders coming in worse at -1.7% vs. a forecast of 0.4%. Looking ahead for German Industrial Output is seen at -0.5% . Sterling enjoyed a brief rally before and just after the Bank Of England held rates at 5.25% but fell broadly. Strong US data and heavy GBP/JPY selling pulled cable down.
Tech Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4380 S1: 1.4180
R2: 1.4420 S2:1.4150
Euro shows no signs of reversal and continues to be in bear note. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4190-1.4360 levels for the day. Stochastic and momentum are hinting towards a slight upward correction.
GBP R1: 1.7730 S1: 1. 7500
R2: 1.7740 S2: 1. 7480
Pound chart pattern signals the possibility of slight correction .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7510-1.7690 levels. Momentum is seen trending up but currency is still trading below the moving averages.
Indian Rupee seen mixed
Indian Rupee fell in early trade as local shares followed weak cues from global market leading to foreign fund outflows. But anticipated capital inflows from a large company and lower oil prices are expected to curb currency's fall.
Tech Outlook:
USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 44.19-44.42 levels for the day. With good support seen at 44.15 levels and key resistance is seen at 44.45 break of which will see 42.58 levels. Chart pattern indicates a mixed note for the day as stochastic is seen flat though in overbought levels. Currency is expected to give a slight downward correction as it has already tested the Upper Band levels.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Aussie fell against the majors-Aug 04.
AUD R1: 0. 8380 S1:0.8270
R2: 0.8400 S2: 0.8250
Chart pattern supports a bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8260-0.8370 levels .Relative Strength index is seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving average.
Euro and pound Snaped Five-Day Decline -Aug 04.
Euro poor data out of the Euro zone made sure that the downside continued with year lows tested just under the 1.44 level. July Retail sales fell more than expected at -0.4% which combined with revised lower June sales left the Euro on the back foot. Failure to break the year lows resulted in a recovery towards opening levels. Looking ahead for July German Industrial Orders which are seen rebounding after falling -2.9% in June. The ECB September Rate decision widely expected to remain at 4.25%. Attention will be on President Trichet statement after the decision . Sterling continued to weaken on USD strength testing the downside. Reports that UK banks may have used more than twice the emergency funding as previously thought also weighed on the pound. The August Services PMI jumped to 49.2 from 47.4 in July. Looking ahead for Bank of England is expected to hold at 5.00%. Also released is the Halifax House Price Index forecast to fall -1.8%.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4575 S1: 1.4380
R2: 1.4610 S2:1.4350
Euro shows no signs of reversal and continues to be in bear note. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4390-1.4560 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen flat and remains silent on the issue but momentum is trending down.
GBP R1: 1.7820 S1: 1. 7660
R2: 1.7840 S2: 1. 7640
Pound bears have confirmed there position .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7670-1.7810 levels. Currency has broken all the key support levels and is seen trending down .Momentum is also supporting the bear note.
Rupee weakened -Aug 04
Rupee weakened taking weak cues from Asian stock markets and a widening trade deficit hurt sentiment, but traders were wary of central bank intervention.
Tech Outlook:
USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 44.35-44.58 levels for the day. With good support seen at 44.23 levels and key resistance is seen at 44.62 Chart pattern indicates a mixed note for the day as stochastic is seen flat though in overbought levels. Currency is expected to give a slight downward correction as it has already tested the Upper Band levels.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
EVENING REPORT-SEP 02.
Rupee was also dragged to near 20-month low of 44.56 as some banks bought dollars to avail of the arbitrage in the non-deliverable forward market. Currency witnessed demand from foreign institutional investors despite the rise in local share market .But Indian unit trimmed losses as government-owned banks sold dollars and closed at 44.42 levels. U.S. Dollar extended its rally to fresh 2008 highs against a basket of currencies as oil's startling fall toward $105 a barrel boosted expectations of lower global inflation and non-U.S. interest rates. ISM Manufacturing activity is expected to hold at the borderline reading of 50.0.US consumers continue to grapple with higher living costs amid fading labor demands which may limit economic activity .Euro fell to its lowest in seven months against the rampant greenback below $1.4480 level. Euro-Zone producer prices peaked to a new record high, but did little to help the Euro recover .All eyes will be on ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speech, with a probability of keeping rates on hold at 4.25 percent. sterling's dismal run continued and it fell to fresh historical lows testing 1.7785 levels. Compounding an increasingly bleak UK economic outlook. Japanese yen ticks up against most majors and tested around 108.80 levels for the day. Australia's central bank cut rates by a quarter percentage to 7 percent, helping to drive the Australian dollar down sharply to its lowest in a year.
Australia Dollar Is at Year-Low as Rates Cut-sep 02.
R1: 0. 8590 S1:0.8450
R2: 0.8600 S2: 0.8440
Chart pattern supports a bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8460-0.8580 levels .Relative Strength index is seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving average.
Euro and pound on lower oil prices-sept 02.
R2: 1.4680 S2:1.4480
Euro shows no signs of reversal and continues to be in bear note. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.4520-1.4640 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down and supports the bear note.
R2: 1.8020 S2: 1. 7800
Pound bears have confirmed there position .Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.7830-1.7980 levels. Currency has broken all the key support levels and is seen trending down .Momentum is also supporting the bear note.
Rupee eased to a near 1-½ year low-sep 02.
Monday, September 1, 2008
EVENING REPORT-SEP 01.
Aussie extended the weaker note.-sep 01.
AUD R1: 0. 8600 S1:0.8460
R2: 0.8610 S2: 0.8450
Chart pattern is seen on bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8480-0.8590 levels . Stochastic is seen trending down and parabolic is also supporting the bear trend.
Pound and Euro Fell Versus Dollar -sep01.
R2: 1.4700 S2:1.4530
Euro is expected to give a bear move for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4560-1.4660 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down giving indication of further downside movement.
GBP R1: 1.8200 S1: 1. 7960
R2: 1.8220 S2: 1. 7950
chart pattern gives indication of a bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.7980-1.8180 levels . Currency is seen trading below the moving averages and is expected to test the lower Bollinger levels for the day.