AUD EASED ON THE BACK OF COMMODITIES

AUD eased on the back of softer commodity prices. The RBA s widely expected to keep rates on hold Tuesday at 7.25% The Australian dollar fell after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and said it expects previous increases to slow inflation.

TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY
AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9050-0.9160.With good support seen at 0.9030 and key resistance is seen at 0.9180. Currency is expected to give a downward correction for the day Sensitivity indicator Stochastic and momentum oscillators are also signaling towards the bear trend to continue for the day.

POUND CONTINUED TO DEPRECIATE

GBP continued to depreciate as the EURGBP traded at a record high of 79.73 pushing the Sterling Pound down by 8.2% for the first quarter. The pound also slipped for a third day against the dollar, as signs the worldwide credit squeeze is hurting the economy prompted traders to bet on an interest-rate cut next week by the BOE. PMI manufacturing is expected to come in at 51, previous 51.3.

TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY

Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9740-1.9920.With key resistance seen at 1.9940 and support is seen at 1.9720.Widen band width is giving a indication for the market to be highly volatile but stochastic and relative market strength index is giving an indication of bearish trend to continue for the day. Currency is also trading well below the fast moving average which is confirming the downtrend.

YEN

JPY held firm between a defined range tracking equity markets. Currency fell against all 16 most- active currencies on speculation Japanese investors are sending more money overseas in search of higher returns in the fiscal year starting today. Reuters Tankan Survey for the first quarter was released below expectations at 11 (Forecasts: 13; Previous: 19).

TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY

Yen is expected to trade in the range of 99.40-100.60.With key support seen at 99.20 and resistance at 100.80.Currency is expected to give a upward corrections for the day . currency is trading well above the 10 days moving average giving clues for the currency to give a upward movement but it is expected to test the lower range of 99.40 and then go for the bull run .stochastic and Relative Market strength are also supporting the bull trend.

EURO rallied

EURO rallied after a European Union report showed consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in almost 16 years this month. In other news ECB member Liikanen mentioned that the outlook of growth in Europe had become “more subdued”, whilst inflation had accelerated. PMI Manufacturing for the month of March is expected to come in at 52 (Previous: 52.3), whilst Unemployment Rate is expected be unchanged at 7.1%.

Technicals for the day

Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5710-1.5860.With good support seen at 1.5690 levels and breach below the level will see the currency at 1.5680.Key resistance for Euro is seen at 1.5880.Stochastic and Averages of MACD line are showing bearish crossovers and are also seen at overbought level. Currency is also trading below the fast moving averages giving a indication of bearish trend to continue for the day.

Yen outlook-Mar 31

JPY had a mixed data with the Unemployment rate jumping to 3.9% whilst Household spending figures were flat at 2.4% for the month of February. On a positive note, CPI figures though were higher at 1.0% (fastest pace in a decade) as Retail Sales figures were also strong at 1.3%, with growing views that the BOJ will not move until the second half of 2008.Yen is expected to trade in the range of 98.50-100.60.With key support seen at 98.40 and resistance at 100.80.Currency is expected to give a upward corrections for the day .But the currency is trading well above the exponential moving average giving clues for the currency to give a upward movement. stochastic and Relative Market strength are also supporting the bull trend.

Aussie outlook-Mar 31

AUD fell on reports emanating out of the US that further large banks will be hampered in light of the credit crisis. As a high yielding currency, a fall in stock prices hampered the AUD ensuring it fell from day highs. Looking ahead, the RBA begin there two day meeting today with a decision due tomorrow. AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9120-0.9220.With good support seen at 0.9110 and key resistance is seen at 0.9240. Currency is expected to be on a mixed note for the day. Sensitivity indicator Stochastic and momentum oscillators are at neutral territory giving no confirmation on the trend.

Pound view-Mar 31

GBP fell on the London open as March house prices declined by -0.6% worse then the expected -0.3%. Whilst GDP figures were in line with expectations, confirmed at 0.6% for the fourth quarter. Looking ahead BoE Governor King is scheduled to speak
Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9850-1.9996.With key support seen at 1.9840 and resistance for the same is seen at 2.000 .Currency is expected to give a downward corrections for the day which is confirmed as it is seen trading below the fast and slow moving averages. Relative Market Strength index and stochastic are also indicating towards the probability of market correction for the day.

Euro outlook-Mar 31

EURO paired its gains largely on profit taking ahead of the weekend on signs of building inflation pressures in the Euro zone which dampened hopes for any European Central Bank rate cut soon while banks and oil stocks also dragged the index lower. A data filled day kicks off the week in the Euro zone with Consumer Confidence (Forecast: -12; Previous: -12), CPI estimate (Forecast: 3.3%; Previous: 3.3%), and Business Climate (Forecast: 0.7%; Previous: 0.72%).
Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5720-1.5870.With good support seen at 1.5710 levels and resistance for the same is seen at 1.5890.Break of resistance will see the currency back at 1.5900 levels. Stochastic and Relative Market strength index is trading at overbought territory giving clues for the possibility of Market correction. Currency is trading on the Fast moving average so only a break of 1.5770 would give confirmation on the bear trend.

Rupee outlook

Indian Rupee opened marginally lower on views local shares may be weak in line with global indices. Dollar demand from Importers' may add to rupee's fall. Bunched-up dollar inflows after the weekend could also lead to supply. Some banks may also sell dollars on views the Reserve Bank of India's dollar purchases will be less aggressive after inflation for the week to Mar 15 touched a 59-week high.Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.65-39.95.With good support seen at 39.60 and resistance for the same is seen at 40.00 levels. Currency is expected to have a downward correction for the day. Relative Market strength index and Stochastic are indicating a downward for the day. Currency is seen trading below the fast moving averages which is confirming the bear trend.

evening currency report

Rupee held firm above the key 40 per $1 mark as banks continued to sell dollars for exporters and foreign institutional investors following the rise in local shares.Rupee may even touch 39.75/$1. RBI may not intervene as it may result in higher inflation.The pound remained near its historical lows against the euro and was softer against the dollar after the release of data for the UK balance of payments and GDP.The current account deficit improved to 8.5 bln stg in the fourth quarter from a record of 19.1 bln stg in the third quarter and much better than the 18.5 bln. pound remained near the record low of 1.9960 level against the dollar, to which it has slumped from 2.0080 usd overnight due to soft economic data. The consumer confidence index from pollsters GfK/NOP fell another two points lowest in 15 years.The dollar rose against the majors as traders took profits on broad weakness in the U.S. currency before the end of the first quarter.The yen showed little reaction to news that Japan's core consumer inflation in February rose more than expected and scored the biggest increase in a decade.Australian dollar headed for a weekly advance on speculation growth in the two economies will accelerate.Australia's dollar is poised for a quarterly gain on optimism export earnings will increase as commodity prices rise.

The pound was supported

The pound also climbed versus low-interest rate currencies as investors switched into higher-yielding assets. The pound was supported, and government bonds weakened, after the Office for National Statistics said today investment in equipment, vehicles and buildings rose 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY( POUND)
Pound is expected to trade in the range of 2.001-2.015.With key support seen at 1.9990 and resistance for the same is seen at 2.020 .Currency is expected to give a upward movement for the day which is confirmed by the crossover of fast and slow moving averages. Relative Market Strength index and stochastic are in neutral territory remains silent on the issue

Euro edged up

The Euro edged up to $1.5790 from around $1.5766 turning back towards its record high of $1.5905 after making a pause from sharp gains made earlier this week. A series of weak data this week stoked U.S. recession fears and supported expectations for a big Federal Reserve rate cut, while the European Central Bank president's remarks that Euro zone rates were at the right level cooled expectations for a near-term ECB rate cut.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY (EURO)
Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5700-1.5850.With good support seen at 1.5680 and key resistance seen at 1.5860.Currency is trading above the moving averages giving indication of the bullish trend. But Relative market strength index and stochastic are at over bought level hinting towards the possibility of small correction(1.5700) in the counter.

Japanese yen pared the gains against greenback

U.S. currency was also under pressure against the yen as Japanese exporters and institutional investors repatriated overseas earnings and investments before Japan's fiscal year-end on Monday. The yen showed little reaction to news that Japan's core consumer inflation in February rose more than expected and scored the biggest increase in a decade.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY (YEN)
Yen is expected to trade in the range of 99.30-100.80.With key support seen at 99.10 and resistance at 100.90.Currency is expected to be on a mixed note for the day .But the currency is trading well above the exponential moving average giving clues for the currency to give a upward movement. stochastic and Relative Market strength are also indicating towards the bullish trend.

RUPEE gains on exporterter's dollar sale

Dollar sales by exporters helped the rupee recoup early losses. There was selling pressure from exporters to square off their positions. Local shares are seen rising today contrary to expectations of a fall earlier as most Asian indices recouped losses. The rupee's rise was, however, limited on dollar demand from oil companies.
TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY (RUPEE)
Rupee is expected to trade on a mixed note in the range of 39.95-40.20.With key support at 39.90 and resistance for the same seen at 40.25.currency is trading below the moving averages giving indication of its weakness but Sensitivity indicator stochastic are giving indication for a small upward correction.

currency evening report mar 27

Currency evening report
Rupee inched up as foreign banks continued to sell dollars. These seem like capital flows or some private equity inflow. Premiums were sharply up as importers bought forward dollars to rollover their contracts maturing March-end. However, the rupee faced tough resistance around 40.09-40.10/$1 on dollar purchases from state-run banks, presumably for the Reserve Bank of India. The dollar has started the European session strongly as investors book recent profits but remains vulnerable to falling back towards its all-time low against the Euro, especially with US economic growth data due for release later. Washington will announce the final fourth quarter US gross domestic product figures later today and consumer spending data for February . The dollar was also weighed down by the move by central banks in Asia and the Middle East to diversify their foreign exchange reserves by buying the common currency of the 15-member Euro zone area. The Euro has come under modest selling pressure against the dollar but confidence on the dollar remains weak .Elsewhere, the yen has weakened slightly against the dollar after Japanese officials aired some concerns about the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member Miyako Suda warned of greater downside risk to the outlook of the Japanese economy in the year to March 2009 and stressed the need for managing monetary policy 'with a gradual approach'. The BoJ itself sees the growth potential rate for Japan at the upper end of 1.0 percent, lower than the IMF's prediction of 1.5 pct. Meanwhile, the pound has recovered some of yesterday's losses but remains vulnerable to further downside moves.
regards

priya & jayashree

currency market outlook for 27 mar

RUPEE weakened against the U.S. dollar because banks bought the greenback expecting dollar repatriation by foreign funds as local share market is likely to open down .Currency is expected to trade on a mixed note in the range of 40.05-40.30.With key support at 40.00 and 39.90 and resistance for the same seen at 40.35 and 40.40.currency is trading below the moving averages giving indication of its weakness but Sensitivity indicator stochastic are giving indication for a small upward correction.
USD fell as New Home Sales (Feb) fell for the fourth straight month by 1.8% to a 13 year low as the housing slump continued. Durable Goods for the month of February declined by -1.7% below expectations. Fourth quarter GDP figures are expected to come in at 0.6% as previous.
EURO surged higher on poor US data, and further boosted by strong reading in the German IFO index, as businesses sentiment in the Europe largest economy continued to grow in confidence. ECB president maintained the banks view on fighting inflationary pressures as their number one agenda. Gfk Consumer Confidence for the month of April is expected to be released. Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5700-1.5880.Good support is seen at 1.5690 and resistance is seen at 1.5890.Relative Market Strength index and stochastic is giving a indication of the currency to give a downside correction. But a cross over of fast and slow moving averages are seen indicating the bull trend to be intact.
JPY traded below the key 99.00 once again as export growth unexpectedly accelerated in February as demand from emerging markets helped automakers ride out the U.S. slump. yen rose against the dollar for a third day on speculation Japanese investors are repatriating overseas earnings amid signs credit turmoil will spread. Yen is expected to trade in the range of 98.10-99.50.With key support seen at 98.00 and resistance at 99.70.Currency is expected to trade on a bearish note for the day .Currency is seen trading below the fast moving averages and the MACDs are also giving a bearish crossovers. Relative Market strength index is also supporting the view.
GBP was volatile as U.K.'s Financial Services Authority is rumored to be increasing its scrutiny of the country's financial institutions following the collapse of mortgage lender Northern Rock Plc. Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9960-1.2015.With good support seen at 1.9940 and key resistance is seen at 1.2020.Currency is trading well above the moving average . Relative Market strength index and Momentum are at neutral territory remaining silent on the trend.
AUD also continued its recent rally on a broadly weaker dollar, and a boost in commodities. currency traded near its highest in a week as rising prices of metals the nation exports boosted the outlook for economic growth and on speculation of interest rate cut by Federal Reserve. AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9140-0.9280.With good support seen at 0.9120 and key resistance is seen at 0.9300. Currency is expected to have a uptrend for the day as Stochastic and momentum oscillators are giving confirmations for the uptrend.
Regards
priya &jayashree