Monday, September 14, 2009

Yen weakendin early trade-Sep 15.

Japanese Yen USD/JPY found support from USD strength early in the day and then continued higher as Yen Crosses rebounded from selling last week. The 90 level on the Yen remains intact and the market is very short the USD/JPY which could lead to a sharp short covering rally in US interest rate expectations change. .Technically speaking USDJPY charts have picked up small bullish momentum and is expected to trade in the range of 90.30-91.80 levels .Key resistance for the currency is seen at 92.00 . Good support is seen at 90.20 levels. Momentum and stochastic are seen trending up from oversold areas giving slight bullishness to the currency.

Euro and sterling gained from Asian selling-Sep 15.

Euro found support from Asian selling at 1.4520 and bounced hard into the US session setting fresh year highs above 1.4650. Strong US stocks and stops helped provide momentum. The Rally stalled at highs but found support in the low 1.4600 area to end well supported at the close. July Industrial production -0.3% vs. -0.2% forecast. Looking ahead, September German ZEW survey forecast at 60 vs. 56 previously.On technical side EURUSD is expected to have a tight trading range of 1.4530-1.4640 levels .Good support is seen at 1.4500 . Key resistance is seen at 1.4660 levels. Stochastic and momentum is seen trending down supporting the downward correction.
Sterling led the market on the way down yesterday with the market falling heavily on risk aversion and traders caught long after the rally on Thursday and Friday last week. GBP/JPY bounced off the 150 Yen level and Cable bounced off the 1.6520 supports but the recovery lagged the Euro and EUR/GBP ended the day above 0.88. Looking ahead, August CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously. Sterling charts are expected to give bullish consolidation and trade in the range of 1.6530-1.6680 levels. Relative strength Index and momentum are seen trending down giving bearish outlook . Good support is seen at 1.6510 and key resistance is seen at 1.6740 .

Trade dispute between china and US weakend the dollar-Sep 15

U.S. Dollar strengthened at the open across the board as the Nikkei slumped over 2% on concerns a trade dispute between the US and China could unravel into a trade war. Obama's speech on financial regulation was largely as expected and Fed speak from Yellen and Lacker offered little new in terms of exit strategy. US investors shrugged off the bad lead from Asia and US stocks ended higher sending the USD to fresh year lows against the Euro. Looking ahead, August Core Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.6% previously. Also released, August PPI forecast at 0.8% vs. -0.9% previously. Indian Rupee rose supported by the dollar's weakness against major currencies and higher Asian shares . Technically Indian unit has given a higher open and is expected to trade in the range of 48.48-48.80 levels. Good support is seen at 48.42 and key resistance remains at 48.88 levels for the day. Stochastic is seen trending down but crossovers are needed to confirm the trend.