Evening report- Oct 23.

Indian rupee closed at 49.83 against the dollar as a slump in stock prices increased prospects of more capital outflows.Indian currency declined on speculation the government's decision to raise the limit on loans Indian companies can get from abroad will fail to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the local market.The lack of fundamental data and major headlines hasn’t stopped the dollar’s rise as weak earnings and a declining outlook for the global economy has continued to fuel a flight to safety. Iinitial jobless claims report could add to recession fears for the U.S. which could lead to some dollar weakness as it reminds traders that the U.S. fundamental picture remains in dire straits and the economy is most likely headed toward a prolonged downturn. More dour fundamental data from Europe only perpetuates the sentiment that the U.S. is best positioned to emerge from the current crisis which will continue to remain a supportive factor for the dollar.The Euro has started to trade higher after it rebounded from its lowest levels . After reaching a low of 1.2728 the single currency continues to trade higher despite mixed fundamental data, French consumer spending was at its highest in three months in September as it rose 0.6% from -0.2% the month prior. However, business confidence in the country fell as the tight credit markets and declining global demand have dimmed the outlook. Meanwhile, Euro-Zone industrial new orders fell 1.2% in August and 6.6% year-over-year. Demand for transport equipment fell 10.6% followed by textiles falling 6.5%, the recent credit crunch should add to the weakness going forward. The story for the Euro-Zone economy is just starting to be spelled out and the fundamental data is expected to continue to deteriorate as the region contends with relatively high interest rates and declining global demand.The Pound has traded heavy after it was reported that U.K. retails sales fell 0.4% in September,the fall in consumer spending has reignited concerns over the U.K.’s economy and reinforces the statements from BoE Governor King that the country is already in a recession. Britons have curbed their spending on clothing and household goods which fell 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, as a weakening labor market and the looming recession has sunk confidence. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are now pricing in another 179 bps of rate cuts from the central bank. USDJPY fell to its lowest levels following the Bear Stearns bailout as it fell below 97.00. The pair has since seen choppy trading as the country’s trade report showed the surplus fell to 95.1 billion from 574.6 billion as exports declined greater than expected. Japanese fundamental data doesn’t typically hold much sway over the currency, but with risk winds dying down it had a greater impact than normal.

Rupee fell sharply

Rupee fell sharply on Wednesday on expectations of a weaker start for local shares following falls in Asian markets, which could lead to further foreign fund outflows.
tech view :
USD/INR chart pattern indicates upside movement for the day. Indian unit has the support is seen at 47.80 levels and resistance at 48.80 levels Trading range is expected between 47.90 -48.70 . Breach of the resistance can test 49 .00 levels for the day. Stochastic remains neutral waiting for further clues from the currency market movement

EURO traded lower

EURO traded lower . Euro zone economies announced individual measures to capitalise the banking systems and alleviate funding pressures. Risk sentiment is improving as the US is expected to join the fray in banking recapitalisation, but even if such efforts are successful fundamentals still point to a deep slowdown in the German economy.
Tech view
EURO R1: 1.3680 S1: 1.3450
R2: 1.3710 S2:1.3420
Euro remains mixed for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3480-1.3660 levels for the day. MACD cross over does not make any significant crossover and remains silent on the issue.stochastic trends downwards.

Pound remains mixed

Pound remains mixed for the day. Job openings in London's financial- services industry tumbled 14 percent in September, the third consecutive monthly decline, according to a survey by recruitment firm Morgan McKinley.
tech view
GBP R1: 1.7620 S1: 1. 7390
R2: 1.7630 S2: 1. 7350
chart pattern shows the currency to give upside movement for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.7410-1.7580 levels for the day. Stochastic also indicates the currency to give upside movement for the day.

The yen rose

The yen rose for the first day in five against the dollar on speculation the U.S. Treasury's $250 billion investment in financial institutions won't prevent a recession in the world's biggest economy.
tecn view
YEN R1: 102.60 S1:100.60
R2: 102.80 S2:100.20
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to be on downside for the day. .Trading range for the day is expected between 100.95-102.40 levels. Stochastic hints for the downside movement for the day.

Australian dollar fell

The Australian dollar fell as U.S. equities and commodity prices slipped on concern a $3 trillion dollar push to shore up the global financial system may not prevent a world recession.
Tech view
AUD R1: 0. 7080 S1:0.6840
R2: 0.7120 S2: 0.6820
Chart pattern shows the currency to be on mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.6850-0.7050 levels .stochastic remains in neutral territory for the day.

Evening report -oct 06

Rupee recovered from 5-½ year lows on as state-run banks sold dollars but demand for the US unit from oil firms and concerns of more capital outflows from local stocks weighed. The dollar was helped by strong dollar demand as global money markets remain frozen. Global financial institutions are increasingly forced to procure dollar in the spot market and the dollar is rallying on the back of that. The euro had its biggest one-day drop in nine years as the deepening credit crisis prompted European governments to pledge bailouts for troubled banks while stopping short of coordinated action. European banks have been hit hard by the fallout from a crisis that began in the United States when the housing market collapsed and bad mortgage debts multiplied..The same credit market collapse that drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and sent bank borrowing costs in Europe to record highs is making the yen unbeatable. Japan's currency was the best-performer in September and the only currency to appreciate against the dollar.. British Pound was under Pressure As Market Expects A BoE Rate Cut. The Australian dollar plunged more than 5 percent four-year low as investors were forced to dump long-standing carry trades .

Australian Dollar suffered on Expectations of aggressive easing from the RBA -oct 06

Australian Dollar suffered considerable as risk aversion spiked and stocks slumped to multi year lows in the US. Expectations of aggressive easing from the RBA added to the bearish tone. AUD/NZD traded at multi month lows
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 7570 S1:0.7390
R2: 0.7590 S2: 0.7380
Chart pattern supports bear note for the day. with the Trading range is expected between 0.7400-0.7560 levels .Both stochastic and momentum are seen trending down giving bearish signals.

Sterling tracked the Euro lower as USD strengthened-oct 06

Euro was unable to take advantage of the weak US data as Europe’s banking problems took precedence. Fortis, Hypo and Dexia banks all required immediate funding and this helped the Euro to weaken into the weekend. August Sales were better than expected at +0.3% vs. 0.1% forecast. Looking ahead for October Sentix is seen at -27 . Sterling tracked the Euro lower as the USD strengthened and UK banking sector was also put under the spotlight. September Services were weaker than expected at 46 vs. 48 expected.

Tech outlook:
EURO: R1: 1.3730 S1: 1.3570
R2: 1.3750 S2:1.3550
Euro is expected to give a downside correction for the day. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.3590-1.3720 levels for the day. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and are signaling towards the bear note .Currency is also seen trading below the moving averages.

GBP R1: 1.7670 S1: 1.7500
R2: 1.7690 S2: 1.7490
pound is expected to trade in red with the trading range of 1.7510-1.7650 levels. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and are signaling towards the bear note .Currency is also seen trading below the moving averages.

Rupee fell to its lowest-oct 06.

The Rupee fell to its lowest in anticipation of more capital outflows with Asian shares falling but dollar sales by state-run banks probably on behalf of central bank curbed a further drop.

Tech Outlook:
USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 47.20-47.50.With good support seen at 47.15 levels and key resistance is seen at 47.55 break of which will see 47.80 levels. Stochastic and Relative strength index are seen trending up but caution required as currency is trading near the upper Band level and are seen at overbought level.

Evening report-oct 03.

Indian rupee ended at 47.08 as Oil companies were seen making heavy dollar purchases for the import payments in the light of sliding rupee and global oil prices ruling steady around USD 93 a barrel. Since stocks were negative there is FII outflow from the system and banks also bought the greenback noting the firm non-deliverable forward rates.U.S.Economy will have a day of major event risk with the bill for the rescue plan headed to the House of Representatives where it was initially defeated.Additionally the Non-farm payroll report is expected to show the economy lost another 105,000 jobs and declined for a ninth straight month. The dour report is expected to push voters who are on the fence toward passing the bill that will deliver over $700 bln to the cash starved markets.The employment component of the ISM manufacturing report fell to its lowest level . We may see the dollar weaken on the release as the prospects of the US entering a recession increases. However, the approval of the bailout plan would enhance the outlook as it could potentially lubricate credit markets and ultimately bring an end to the decline of the housing slump. Euro failed to test 1.3800 levels as major event risk looms for the dollar as Eurozone retail sales printed a gain of 3% which was higher than the 1% expected. Also, July’s initially reported decline of 0.4% was revised to a gain of 1% giving hope that the region’s economy may not be declining as fast as expected. Pound has also found some support at 1.7610 levels as the looming event risk has weigh on the dollar despite further evidence that the country may already be in a recession.The Service PMI reading contracted to 46.0 the lowest which is significantly lower than the August reading of 49.2.Japanese Yen had a Choppy trade Ahead OF Bailout Vote and tested a high of 105.50 and was supported at 104.80 levels.

Australian dollar had heavy sell off-oct 03.

Australian Dollar took the full brunt of the USD strength last night. Weakening Global Growth outlook and softening commodities combined with risk aversion to send the Aussie to new year lows below .7800. AUD/JPY also suffered considerable.
Tech Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 7850 S1:0.7680
R2: 0.7860 S2: 0.7670
Chart pattern supports bear note for the day. with the Trading range is expected between 0.7690-0.7830 levels .Both stochastic and momentum are seen trending down giving bearish signals .Parabolic is also supporting the bear note.

Euro and sterling weakened-oct 03.

Euro broke below year lows as Trichet released some dovish comments on the direction of future European Interest rates which the ECB held at 4.25%. Also broken last night was the long term trend line at 1.3925. Large losses in Oil also weighed. Looking ahead for Retail Sales in August are expected at 0.1% vs. -0.4% previously. Also release the Euro zone PMI services seen at 48.2. Sterling weakened against the USD but losses were not as bad as the Euro. UK data was weak but near expectations at -1.7%. UK Construction PMI fell further to 38.8 and is at a very low level well below.

Tech Outlook:
EURO: R1: 1.3920 S1: 1.3730
R2: 1.3940 S2:1. 3720
Euro is expected to give a downside correction for the day. Currency is expected to Trade in the range of 1.3750-1.3910 levels for the day. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and are signaling towards the bear note .Currency is also seen trading between the moving averages.
GBP R1: 1.7800 S1: 1.7570
R2: 1.7820 S2: 1.7550
pound is expected to trade in red with the trading range of 1.7590-1.7790 levels. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and are signaling towards the bear note .Currency is also seen trading between the moving averages.

Rupee dropped to its lowest-oct 03.

The Rupee dropped to its lowest in more than five years in opening deals on expectations that foreigners would continue to sell their local investments amid a deepening global financial crisis. USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 46.60-47.25 levels. With good support seen at 46.58 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 47.30 levels. Stochastic shows a possibility of slight downside correction .