EVENING REPORT-AUG 28.

Rupee was slightly weak but moved in a narrow range against the U.S. unit as dollar supplies from exporters offset demand. The market is very quiet today. Demand from importers matched supplies from exporters. However, banks avoided building overly long dollar positions expecting dollar sales from state-run banks, presumably on behalf of Reserve Bank of India. US economic docket is scheduled to show an upward revision to GDP, which may spur bullish sentiment for the US dollar. Second quarter growth figures are expected to be revised higher to 2.8% from an advanced reading of 1.9% as a result of the fiscal stimulus plan initiated earlier in the year. Strong growth numbers should help to ease recessionary concerns for the world’s largest economy, and may fuel expectations for the Fed to hike the benchmark interest rate later in the year .British pound remained weak after the U.K. CBI Trade Report crossed the wires worse than expected, falling to a new record low of -46 from -36 in July. A breakdown of the survey showed that orders decline to -56 from -37 , while the sales component slid to -43, Mounting downside growth risks which may push the Bank of England to cut the interest rate ahead of schedule as the economy is on the brink of a recession. Euro continued to strengthen as employment conditions improved in Germany. Unemployment fell to 7.6% from 7.8% in July, while the ILO unemployment index slipped to 7.3% from a revised 7.4% reading in June. Both figures crossed the wires much better than what market participants were anticipating, helping to fuel bullish sentiment for the Euro. U.S dollar fell against Japanese Yen on expectation of a Hawkish Outlook from BoJ. Australian dollar jumped against its most major counterparts after a report showed that Australia's business investment increased more than expected in the second quarter of 2008.
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Rupee weakend slightly.-Aug 28.

Rupee opened at 42.65 but weakened marginally as oil refiners stepped up dollar buying to meet end-of-month commitments.USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 43.58-43.90 levels for the day. With good support seen at 43.55 levels break of which will see 43.45 levels and key resistance is seen at 43.95 levels. Stochastic is trending down but that alone is not sufficient to show that pair has downside pressure.

Euro gained marginally but pound continued its decline-Aug 28.

· Euro was able to make substantial gains after bouncing off the multi month lows of Tuesday. Hawkish ECB comments from multiple members tempered speculation of interest rate cuts before the end of the year, which combined with surging Oil supported the single currency. German CPI figures showed a drop of -0.3% in August. Looking ahead for German Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 7.8% after an Unemployment change forecast at -10K in August. Sterling suffered the most of the majors as a key resistance on the EUR/GBP was broken at .8000. Cable was able to recover in line with the Euro but fell heavily after the US Durable Goods Orders to hit New Year lows below 1.8300. Looking ahead for CBI Trends Orders August with a forecast at -30 vs. -36 in July.

Technical Outlook:

EURO

R1: 1.4880 S1: 1.4700
R2: 1.4900 S2:1.4690
Euro is expected to give a bear move for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4710-1.4850 levels for the day. Stochastic lies in oversold area and is seen trending up giving room to a slight upward correction. Momentum is also supporting the upside move.

Pound
R1: 1.8500 S1: 1. 8310
R2: 1.8520 S2: 1. 8330
chart pattern gives the possibility of slight upward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.8320-1.8480 levels . Currency has crossed the pivot levels and stochastic is also supporting the bull note .Relative strength is also supporting the bull note

Australian Dollar recovered from lows-Aug 28.

Australian Dollar recovered from lows as Oil and other Commodities strengthened and USD was sold. US data took the bid tone off the Aussie sending the pair back to the .85 handle. AUD/JPY bounced as equities recovered. Looking ahead for Q2 CAPEX forecast to recover to 2.0% Q/Q after falling -2.5% Q1.

Technical Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8750 S1:0.8600
R2: 0.8780 S2: 0.8580
Chart pattern signals that Aud has picked up Momentum for a bull rally. Trading range is expected between 0.8620-0.8730 levels . Daily stochastic is supporting a bull run and Currency is also seen trading above the moving average.

Evening Report-Aug 27

Rupee recouped all its losses and inched up against the U.S.dollar with government-owned banks selling the greenback, presumably on behalf of Reserve Bank of India.There was a sharp movement in dollar/rupee from 43.90 to 43.64 rupees. The over 1% fall in local share market had also prompted some banks to buy the greenback, expecting demand from foreign institutional investorsU.S.Dollar was on the defensive against other major currencies ahead of the latest report on durable goods orders and rising oil prices on the back of a tropical storm threatening the Gulf of Mexico.A larger than expected decline in orders will raise recession concerns once again and with the housing market yet to bottom and financial sector concerns remaining, we could see the dollar give back some of its recent gains. Dollar retreated against a basket of currencies while hawkish rhetoric from a European Central Bank policymaker lifted the Euro.It got a further shot with German import prices surging to an 8 year high on the back of higher oil prices, rising to 9.3% from 8.9% in June. Higher import prices does not bode well for Europe’s largest economy as companies continue to battle slumping demand and shrinking profit margins. However, August inflation data from the various German regions showed prices easing as much as 0.4%. The fall in CPI demonstrates that dropping oil prices and slowing growth are relieving price pressures, and may give the ECB the green light to abandon their price stability mandate to focus on promoting growth.British Pound showed strength testing 1.8450 Amid High Volatility and speculation that slowing economic growth in the Euro zone and UK will compel central banks across the Atlantic to slash their respective interest rates in the medium-term.USDJPY weakened as risk aversion is creeping back into the markets on the back of lingering concerns financial sector concerns and geopolitical risk.

Aussie giving a bull run-aug 27

Australian Dollar climbed from near a two-week low as U.S. and Asian stocks advanced, giving investors more confidence to buy higher-yielding assets.

Technical Outlook:
AUD R1: 0. 8680 S1:0.8490
R2: 0.8700 S2: 0.8480
Chart pattern is seen on bull note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8503-0.8660 levels . Daily stochastic is supporting a bull run and momentum is also seen trending up.

Euro and pound were on a weak footing

Euro was on a weak footing as USD strengthened broadly before being knocked lower on weaker than expected data. GFK Consumer Confidence dropped to 1.5 and Q2 German GDP was confirmed at -0.5%. The big market mover was August IFO Index which fell more than expected to 94.8 vs. the 97.1 forecast. The Euro broke through support at 1.4600 before a rally in Oil allowed some relief. Looking ahead for German Import Prices are expected to rise 0.5%. The Sterling new multi year lows where plumbed as USD gained all day and support at 1.8400 gave way. Heavy selling in the GBP/JPY added pressure.

Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.4790 S1: 1.4630
R2: 1.4820 S2:1.4610
Euro is expected to give a bear move for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4660-1.4780 levels for the day. Stochastic lies in oversold area and is seen trending up giving room to a slight upward correction.

GBP R1: 1.8550 S1: 1. 8320
R2: 1.8600 S2: 1. 8300
chart pattern gives the possibility of slight upward correction for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.8340-1.8530 levels . Currency has crossed the pivot levels and stochastic is also supporting the bull note and is expected to test the R1 level for the day.

Rupee seen mixed

Rupee rose as investors bought the local unit noting the dollar's weakness against some Asian currencies. Oil refiners could step up dollar purchases for import payments that are usually made towards the close of each month.
USDINR is expected to trade in the range of 43.65-43.94 levels for the day. With good support seen at 43.58 levels and key resistance is seen at 44.00 levels. Chart pattern shows a consolidation phase but the downtrend can be confirmed only if the currency is able to sustain below the moving average level of 43.65. But Stochastic has given a turn from the overbought levels giving room for a slight upward correction.

Evening Report-Aug 26.

Steady demand for dollars from corporates and short-covering pushed the Rupee down to 17-month lows.U.S.Dollar extended its dramatic rally of the past month, hitting its highest this year against a basket of currencies as a disappointing business climate indicator added to the view that economic weakness, traders were bracing for a pair of housing reports and a key reading on consumer confidence.Greenback rocketed higher versus the Euro when data revealed that German business confidence fell much more than expected. Meanwhile, a report showed that the German economy contracted 0.5% sequentially in the second quarter raising the spectre of recession in the euro zone and fuelled speculation of interest rate cuts.The dollar hit a new 2-year high of 1.8350 versus the Sterling up a penny from its overnight levels amid speculation that the European Central Bank and Bank of England will be compelled to cut interest rates in orders to deal with economic weakness.The dollar was up 0.4 percent at 109.92 yen heading up towards 110.66 yen hit earlier in the month for the first time since early January.

RUPEE REMAINED UNCHANGED

The Rupee remained unchanged as the dollar's strength against some currencies was offset by lower oil and firmer Asian stock markets.

TEECH VIEW 25.08.08
USDINR is expected to give upward movement for the day .Trading range for the day is expected between 43.30-43.70.With good support seen at 43.25 and resistance is seen at 43.75 levels. Stochastic remains in overbought area and indicates the currency to be on bull note.

RUPEE REMAINED UNCHANGED

The Rupee remained unchanged as the dollar's strength against some currencies was offset by lower oil and firmer Asian stock markets.

TEECH VIEW 25.08.08
USDINR is expected to give upward movement for the day .Trading range for the day is expected between 43.30-43.70.With good support seen at 43.25 and resistance is seen at 43.75 levels. Stochastic remains in overbought area and indicates the currency to be on bull note.

eURO WEAKENEED

The Euro weakened against the dollar on speculation declines in German business confidence will discourage the European Central Bank from raising interest rates.
TECH VIEW 25.08.08
EURO R1: 1.4860 S1: 1.4650
R2: 1.4880 S2:1.4610
Euro is expected to give a bear move for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4690-1.4840 levels for the day. Stochastic lies in oversold area thereby taking the currency in bear note. Momentum remains in neutral territory.

YEN DECLINED

The U.S. currency traded near a seven-month high versus the yen after crude extended its biggest percentage decline in more than three years.

technical view 25.08.08
YEN R1: 110.80 S1:109.50
R2: 111.20 S2:109.20
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to be on consolidation phase .Trading range for the day is expected between 109.60-110.60 levels. Stochastic gives caution of downward movement in near term.

U.K pound fell to one-week low

The U.K. pound fell to a one-week low after a government report showed economic growth stagnated in the second-quarter, strengthening the case for lower interest rates.

Technical view for the day 25.08.08
GBP R1: 1.8490 S1: 1. 8360
R2: 1.8510 S2: 1. 8320
chart pattern shows the currency to be on bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.8380-1.8470 levels for the day. Currency is seen trading on the moving averages and stochastic still remains in oversold area thereby indicating the currency to be on bear note.

AUD WEAKENED

The Australian dollar weakened for a second day on speculation a decline in commodity prices will diminish the outlook for the South Pacific economies.
Teechnical view dated 25.08.08
AUD R1: 0. 8680 S1:0.8550
R2: 0.8720 S2: 0.8510
Chart pattern is seen on mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8590-0.8660 levels .stochastic remains bearish for the currency. RSI also supports the same .

AUD WEAKENED

The Australian dollar weakened for a second day on speculation a decline in commodity prices will diminish the outlook for the South Pacific economies.
Teechnical view dated 25.08.08
AUD R1: 0. 8680 S1:0.8550
R2: 0.8720 S2: 0.8510
Chart pattern is seen on mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8590-0.8660 levels .stochastic remains bearish for the currency. RSI also supports the same .

Evening report-Aug 22.

The Indian rupee was stronger as dollar supplies from a large company helped the local unit rise, but concerns over higher oil prices remain.U.S.Dollar found its footing versus other major currencies With no first-tier economic data on tap, all eyes will be on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who speaks at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The Euro gave back some of its gains after the June’s current account reading showed the deficit widening to 8.2 billion from a revised -5.5 billion the month prior. pound reversed its gains after the industrial new orders report showed the biggest drop in six years also weighed on the currency. Although manufacturing demand declined 7.4% on an annualized basis.U.S.Dollar also climbed from a two-week low against the yen as Japanese investors took advantage of their currency's gains to buy higher-yielding assets abroad.

Australian Dollar with rise in commodity prices -Aug 22.

Australian Dollar headed for a weekly gain on rising commodity prices and prospects for a prolonged U.S. economic slowdown that may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.

Tech Outlook:

AUD R1: 0. 8830 S1:0.8740
R2: 0. 8850 S2:0.8720
Chart pattern is seen on mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8750-0.8820 levels .Momentum remains supportive for the bullish move. RSI also supports the same .

Euro and Pound had a slight rebound-Aug 22.

The Euro had an initial foray into the 1.48’s early in the European session which was sharply repelled by mixed European data. August German Manufacturing PMI slipped below 50 to 49.9 from 50.9 in July. German Services PMI also slipped to 50.6 from 53.1. Euro zone PMI data surprised to the topside though, ticking higher to 47.5 in August vs. 47.4 in July. The surge in Oil provided the stimulus for the second 1.48 attempt which proved successful with spot settling just below 1.4900.Looking ahead for Euro zone June Current account forecasted at -2Billion and June Industrial Orders are expected at -1.1%. Japanese Yen broke through 109.50 as stock losses mounted and the Dollar weakened. Downside Momentum into the European Session saw support at 109 and 108.50 broken before some heavy cross buying finally brought the decent to a halt. The Sterling had a volatile trading day but ended substantially higher on USD weakness but UK data was mixed. July Retails Sales bounced back from a -3.9% fall last month to a surprisingly strong +0.8%. Initial Pound gains were tempered though as Preliminary Business Investment look set for a -1.9% drop Q/Q. Looking Ahead for Q2 GDP is forecast at 0.1% Q/Q, 1.5% Y/Y.
The Euro had an initial foray into the 1.48’s early in the European session which was sharply repelled by mixed European data. August German Manufacturing PMI slipped below 50 to 49.9 from 50.9 in July. German Services PMI also slipped to 50.6 from 53.1. Euro zone PMI data surprised to the topside though, ticking higher to 47.5 in August vs. 47.4 in July. The surge in Oil provided the stimulus for the second 1.48 attempt which proved successful with spot settling just below 1.4900.Looking ahead for Euro zone June Current account forecasted at -2Billion and June Industrial Orders are expected at -1.1%. The Sterling had a volatile trading day but ended substantially higher on USD weakness but UK data was mixed. July Retails Sales bounced back from a -3.9% fall last month to a surprisingly strong +0.8%. Initial Pound gains were tempered though as Preliminary Business Investment look set for a -1.9% drop Q/Q. Looking Ahead for Q2 GDP is forecast at 0.1% Q/Q, 1.5% Y/Y.

Tech Outlook:

EURO R1: 1.4980 S1: 1.4820
R2: 1.5030 S2:1.4790
Euro is expected to give a bullish move for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4840-1.4960 levels for the day. Stochastic is hinting for the upward movement of the currency for the day. Momentum also supports the upward correction for the day.

GBP R1: 1.8856 S1: 1. 8710
R2: 1.8880 S2: 1. 8690
chart pattern shows the currency to be on mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.8720-1.8840 levels for the day. Momentum indicates the currency to be on bull note. Currency is seen trading on the moving averages only a break above it can confirm the bull trend.

Rupee appreciates on oil cause-Aug 22.

Rising oil prices in global markets forced the Indian Rupee to fall by more than 20 paise against the dollar while bond prices saw a sharp dip. The local currency, which threatened to breach the 44-mark per dollar on , staged a sharp recovery .

Tech Outlook:

USDINR is expected to give a downside correction for the day .Trading range for the day is expected between 43.30-43.58.With good support seen at 43.25 and resistance is seen at 43.62 levels. Stochastic gives the indication for the currency to trend downwards for the day.

Evening Report-Aug 20.

Indian rupee closed at 43.71 facing increased downward pressure with the government’s trade deficit rising on account of high crude oil price, which has also led to double digit inflation. FII outflows from the stock market due to a weak economic outlook have also put pressure on the currency. U.S.dollar held near a 2008 high against a basket of major currencies as investor bearishness on the global economic outlook prompted a view that rates outside the U.S. EURUSD started trading lower after running into resistance at the 1.4800 price level on renewed concern that economic growth in the region is weakening. Euro-Zone June construction report showed a contraction in the sector of 0.6%, which reduced over 75 points. The boost the market received from mild weather in the first quarter has dissipated and the slowing growth in the region has begun to take its toll.Bank of England policy makers split three ways in August, with one arguing for higher rates to tame inflation and another voting for a cut to stave off a recession. U.K. pound traded near a two-year low versus the dollar after minutes of the Bank of England's August meeting showed inflation risks may have ``eased a little'' while the economic-growth outlook worsened. Pound fell over 50 bps after the release of the BoE minutes as traders anticipated a dovish statement. The central bank voted to leave their benchmark rate unchanged at 5.00%. It was the second consecutive month that the tally fell that way as Tim Besley pushed for a rate hike and David Blanchflower voted again for easing.Yen gained and was seen trading near 110.20Japan’s All Industry Activity Index printed in line with expectations at -0.9% in June,the release reinforced the negative tone of recent Japanese economic data further supporting the likelihood of a looming recession for the world’s second-largest economy

Euro and Pound weakend after a small bull run

Dollar pulled back against the Euro and stayed on pause versus other major currencies as traders weighed a flurry of somewhat troubling economic reports from the US. Euro recovered after the release of data showing that the recent decrease in oil prices. British pound traded near a two-year low on speculation that the Bank of England will speak in minutes of its last policy meeting that it expects inflation to ease, adding to the case for a cut in interest rates.

Tech outlook

EURO R1: 1.4860 S1: 1.4680
R2: 1.4890 S2:1.4650
Euro is expected to be on consolidation phase for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.4720-1.4850 levels for the day. Stochastic is hinting for the upward movement of the currency for the day. Momentum also supports the upward correction for the day.

GBP R1: 1.8690 S1: 1.8610
R2: 1.8710 S2: 1.8580
chart pattern is expected to be on downtrend for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.8620-1.8680 levels for the day. the ripples of downtrend is seen till its support levels and breach of it would test further new lows but momentum hints for slight upward correction in near term

Rupee weakend -Aug 20

Rupee trimmed losses against U.S. dollar as some banks sold the greenback and booked profits, said to be on behalf of exporters. However, the overnight rise in global crude oil prices and oil companies' dollar demand is expected to keep the Indian unit under pressure
USDINR is expected to give a downside correction for the day .Trading range for the day is expected between 43.50-43.90.With good support seen at 43.45 and resistance is seen at 43.92 levels. Stochastic has given a turn from overbought levels and is trending down. Currency is expected to test the moving average level of 43.35 levels .

EVENING REPORT-AUG 18.

India's rupee ended 17 month low of $43.59 levels for the day and fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in more than eight months, on speculation refiners stepped up purchases of crude oil. The dollar fell from a seven-month high before U.S. government housing and inflation reports this week that may add to speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. The U.S currency retreated from the strongest level snapping a three-day advance, after crude oil and gold gained, eroding the allure of dollar-denominated assets. Euro has been extending the uptrend against its major counterparts. The Eurozone trade balance showed a deficit of EUR0.1 billion in June, while economists were looking for a surplus of EUR1.2 billion, a report from the Eurostat showed today. However, the deficit narrowed from the EUR3.9 billion deficit recorded in May, revised down from the EUR4.6 billion estimated initially. The dollar fell from a seven-month high against the yen before U.S. government housing and inflation reports this week that may add to speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. The British pound slid as an industry report showed U.K. home prices dropped the most since at least 2002. The Australian dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates, maintaining the South Pacific nations' yield advantage over the U.S.

Rupee continues slide, down 25 paise against dollar-Aug 18.

Indian Rupee fell to a fresh low as the dollar's strength against other currencies overseas weighed on sentiment, but likely intervention by the central bank may check a sharp fall.

Tech Outlook:

USD/INR is seen on a bull note with the trading range expected between 43.18-43.40.With good support seen at 43.12 levels and key resistance is seen at 42.51 levels. Chart pattern gives a indication of a small downside correction for the day. Stochastic at overbought levels is also supporting the view.

Dollar Falls against Euro Before Housing, Inflation Data

Euro tracked lower although markets were thin as Europe had a bank holiday on Friday. US data added pressure denying any relief rally into the weekend. Euro declined amid hopeful signals on the U.S. economy, falling oil prices and gloom about the European economic outlook. Looking ahead, Euro zone Trade Balance expected to be +0.5 Billion in June. Sterling bounce off support at 1.8520 trading up to 1.8680 as market was seen a little short after large waves of selling early in the week. pound slid on speculation a recession will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Right move House Price Index down -2.3% in July. Public holiday in UK.

Tech View:

EURO: R1: 1.4810 S1:1.4640
R2: 1.4844 S2:1.4590
chart pattern signals a mixed trend for the day with the trading range between 1.4650-1.4780.Stochastic remains in the oversold area and is also seen trending up. Caution is required as it is seen trading below the fast moving averages.

GBP :R1: 1.8760 S1:1.8570
R2: 1.8795 S2:1.8510
chart pattern indicates the currency to be on a mixed note. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.8580-1.8750 levels .Stochastic indicates the currency to give a slight upward correction for the day but the currency still trades below the fast moving average giving a caution signal.

Aussie Gains as Fed May Delay Raising Rates -Aug 18.

Australian Dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates, maintaining the South Pacific nations' yield advantage over the U.S.

Tech View:

R1: 0. 8830 S1:0.8610
R2: 0.8850 S2:0.8590
Chart pattern gives a indication of a slight upward correction for the day as stochastic is seen trending up supported by Momentum. Trading range for the day is expected between 0.8615-0.8820 levels.

RUPEE WEAKENED

Rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar as banks bought the greenback as local shares fell and spur demand from foreign funds. Expectations of outflows from foreign funds have led the banks to buy dollars as global shares are also down. The rupee's weakness may be limited if the crude oil prices fall to $111
Technical view
USD/INR is seen on a bull note with the trading range expected between 42.75-42.93.With good support seen at 42.72 levels and key resistance is seen at 42.96 levels. Chart pattern hints towards a bull run but the Currency is trying to test upper Bollingers in weekly chart and stochastic is also seen trending up.

Euro staged recovery

The Euro staged a recovery off lows in the Asian session but once again found selling pressure during the US session as US data beat estimates and oil receded from highs. Looking ahead for Industrial Production with a forecast at 0.1%.·
EURO R1: 1.4960 S1:1.4835
R2: 1.4982 S2:1.4810
chart pattern signals a downtrend for the day with the trading range between 1.4840-1.4950.stochastic though in oversold territory is trending down. currency is also trading below the moving averages.

Sterling broke

The Sterling Broke through the Key 1.9000 figure early in the Asian session and Strong CPI numbers for July were not enough to reverse market sentiment and cable closed below the figure. July CPI jumped 0.6% to 4.4% y/y. Looking ahead for July Claimant Count seen at 17.5K and Average Earnings for June forecast at 3.6%.
Technical view
GBP R1: 1.8750 S1:1.8580
R2: 1.8780 S2:1.8540
chart pattern indicates a complete downtrend for the day. With the trading 1.8570-1.8730.Stochastic and momentum are signaling downwards. Parabolic is also supporting it.
Technical view :

Yen seen mixed

YEN R1: 109.70 S1:108.70
R2: 109.90 S2:108.50
chart pattern indicates mixed note for the day. With the trading range of 108.80-109.60 levels for the day. Stochastic shows a downtrend but raising Momentum gives a caution signal.
Technical view
The Japanese Yen gained across the board as banking write downs sparked a new wave of risk aversion. Q2 GDP came in at -0.6% and the Q2 GDP Deflator was slightly worse than forecast at -1.6% .·

AUD BOUNCED

Australian Dollar bounced again into the European session but as Gold tested the $800 support the Aussie was sold back to the .8700 level. The Nab Business confidence survey remained at -9 but the Westpac Consumer sentiment jumped 9.1% in July. Wage Price Index Jumps to 1.2% in Q2.
Technical view
AUD R1: 0.8790 S1:0.8640
R2: 0.8830 S2:0.8590
Chart pattern hints towards a downtrend for the day. Relative strength index is signaling towards a bear note Averages of MACD is also supporting it.

RUPEE WEAKENED

Rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar as banks bought the greenback as local shares fell and spur demand from foreign funds. Expectations of outflows from foreign funds have led the banks to buy dollars as global shares are also down. The rupee's weakness may be limited if the crude oil prices fall to $111

USD/INR is seen on a bull note with the trading range expected between 42.51-42.68.With good support seen at 42.48 levels and key resistance is seen at 42.72 levels. Chart pattern hints towards a bull run but the Currency is seen trading near the upper Bollingers and Overbought stochastic are giving a caution signal.

EURO STAGGED RECOVERY

The Euro staged a recovery off lows in the Asian session but once again found selling pressure during the US session as US data beat estimates and oil receded from highs. Looking ahead for Industrial Production with a forecast at 0.1%.·

TECHNICAL VIEW:

EURO expected to be on the downtrend for the day.Trading range is expected between 1.4830-1.4980.support is seen at the levels for 1.4820 levels and resistance at 1.5020 levels for the day.stochastic remains in the oversold area thereby indicating the currency to be on downside.DMI indicates the currency to be on downside for the day.

GBP BROKE 1.9000

The Sterling Broke through the Key 1.9000 figure early in the Asian session and Strong CPI numbers for July were not enough to reverse market sentiment and cable closed below the figure. July CPI jumped 0.6% to 4.4% y/y. Looking ahead for July Claimant Count seen at 17.5K and Average Earnings for June forecast at 3.6%.

GBP chart pattern indicates the currency to bo slight upward correction for the day. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.8880-1.9060 . support for the day is seen at 1.8870 and holds resistance at 1.9065 .stochastic indicates the currency to be on upward movement for the day but till the currency trades below the fast moving average and remains for further movement.

YEN GAINED

The Japanese Yen gained across the board as banking write downs sparked a new wave of risk aversion. Q2 GDP came in at -0.6% and the Q2 GDP Deflator was slightly worse than forecast at -1.6%
TECHNICAL VIEW:
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to be on downside consolidation phase for the day.The down trend is only for the short term and trading range is expected between 108.10-109.80. currency lends its support at 108.00 levels for the day and holds resistance at 109.95 for the day.Momentum takes the currency to be on downside.

YEN GAINED

The Japanese Yen gained across the board as banking write downs sparked a new wave of risk aversion. Q2 GDP came in at -0.6% and the Q2 GDP Deflator was slightly worse than forecast at -1.6%
TECHNICAL VIEW:
yen chart pattern indicates the currency to be on downside consolidation phase for the day.The down trend is only for the short term and trading range is expected between 108.10-109.80. currency lends its support at 108.00 levels for the day and holds resistance at 109.95 for the day.Momentum takes the currency to be on downside.

AUD bounced

Australian Dollar bounced again into the European session but as Gold tested the $800 support the Aussie was sold back to the .8700 level. The Nab Business confidence survey remained at -9 but the Westpac Consumer sentiment jumped 9.1% in July. Wage Price Index Jumps to 1.2% in Q2.
Technical view aug 13.08.2008
iAUD s expected to be on downtrend for the day. trading range is expected between 0.8560-1.8750 levels for the day. currency lends support at 0.8550 levels for the day and holds resistance is seen at 0.8760 levels for the day. stochastic indicates slight upward correction in near term . Momentum indicates the same for the currency for the day.

Evening Report-Aug 12.

Rupee was off lows against the U.S. dollar and closed at 42.36 on profit sales by banks on behalf of exporters. Meanwhile, banks continued to buy dollars for foreign institutional investors noting the fall in local shares, which kept the Indian unit under pressure.upcoming U.S. trade Balance report is expected to show the deficit widening, which is most likely due to a decrease in exports. The rest of the world has caught the U.S.’s cold and their slowing growth will continue to weigh on demand. The release could highlight concerns that if the on area of growth for the U.S. economy begins to weaken and the slack isn’t taken up domestically, the economy may sink further, which could weigh on the dollar today.The Euro bounced off of support at 1.4815 climbing back above 1.4900. The pair has continued to trade lower as the outlook for the European economy grows dimmer. The French current account deficit widened to -4.4 billion from a revised -2.8 billion, as a strong Euro continues to weigh on demand for exports. Meanwhile, domestic growth continues to weaken as consumer’s struggle with high credit costs and rising inflation. President Trichet’s recognizing the softening of the economy has continued to weigh on the Euro despite hawkish comments from Klaus Liebscher.Pound failed to break below the 1.8970 price level twice during the overnight session, finding support each time. Surprisingly the second test came after U.K. inflation data printed hotter than expected at 4.2% against 4.0%. It was the highest level since 1997 and a 0.6% increase from June’s 3.8% reading. The main driver was an 12.3% increase in food prices, which signals that despite the recent decline in Oil, inflation pressures will continue to exist. dollar advanced against the yen testing 110.33 as corporate goods prices rose at their fastest pace boosted by soaring energy and commodity price,domestic corporate goods price index rose 7.1% .Inflation is likely to rise further in Japan, which could hurt the already flagging economy down the road.

Aussie falls ahead of RBA statement.-Aug 12.

Australian Dollar was unable to sustain an early European rally and broke to 6 month lows as gold fell heavily. AUD is leading the charge down against the USD and without a recovery in the commodity complex is struggling to find support. The RBA monetary statement tempered speculation of a 50bps cut in September with more neutral than expected commentary.

Tech Outlook:
AUD remains in bear note for the day. Trading range is expected between 0.8730 -0.8860 levels. currency lends its support at 0.8725 levels and holds resistance at 0.8865 levels. stochastic remains in bear note for the day. chart pattern shows no immediate upward correction and hints for further slides of the currency .

Euro and Pound rebounds.-Aug 12.

The Euro led the rebound in Europe on ECB’s hawkish comments The rally was short-lived however as selling pressure reemerged and Gold collapsed $30. German Wholesale prices posted 9.9% in July its highest point in over a decade. Looking ahead for French CPI is expected at -0.2%. Sterling waxed and waned with USD strength. UK July PPI showed a decline of -0.6% sparking hopes that inflation had peaked. June Trade balance was -7.7 . Looking ahead for July CPI which is expected at -0.3%. Also the Retail Price Index is forecast at 4.9%.

Tech Outlook:

EURO is expected to be downtrend for the day. trading range for the day is expected between 1.4830-1.4940 levels for the day. support for the day is seen at 1.4800 levels and resistance is seen by 1.4950 for the day. Momentum is seen at giving slight upward correction in near term. The movement of the currency in upwards would be technically possible by breaching 1.5020 levels in near term.

GBP is expected to be on down trend for the day. currency lends support at 1.8980 levels and holds its resistance at 1.9150 levels . Trading range is expected between 1.8985-1.9145 levels for the day. Stochastic remains still in oversold area there by hinting towards the continuation of downtrend for the day and currency is also seen trading below the fast moving averages

Rupee weakened -Aug 12.

Contrary to expectations, Indian rupee weakened against the U.S dollar , as banks bought dollars noting its strength against most Asian currencies. Currency weakened after a finance ministry official said the government did not plan to raise limits on firms' overseas borrowing, which led traders to cover short dollar positions.

Tech Outlook:
USD/INR is expected to trade on a bull note with the trading range expected between 42.20-42.35.With good support seen at 42.15 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.42 levels. Currency is trading above the moving averages giving a bullish signal and stochastic is also supporting the bull note. Caution is required as it has already tested upper Band levels.

Evening report-Aug 11

Rupee fell and closed at 42.16 as banks scrambled to buy dollars for importers.Indian unit was also down as a few banks bought dollars after a finance ministry official said the government may alter cap on spread of external commercial borrowings but there were no plans to ease other ECB norms.It could be negative as far as equity market inflows are concerned.U.S. economic calendar is empty which could leave price action at the mercy of broader economic winds. Dollar weakness could continue as oil has firmed on the back of the geopolitical risk emanating from the Russian-Georgian conflict. Also, expectations for the upcoming U.S. retail sales report are diminishing as the effects from the government’s fiscal stimulus plan abates.Euro rallied above 1.5050 and tested 1.5090 levels on hawkish comments from outgoing ECB council member and the German wholesale price inflation accelerated more than expected on higher fuel prices.French industrial production decreased at a slower pace of 0.4%.sterling rose over 100 point a tested 1.9259 levels with the release of producer price , as the inflation report was expected to show inflation continue to rise. Also, core prices rose to 6.5% as rising energy costs spread to other areas including chemicals and base metals. Although, the prices at the factory gate rose to its highest level at 10.2. Additionally, the 0.6% fall in input prices may signal that slumping growth and falling oil prices is beginning to slow inflation. This may clear the path for the BoE to cut their benchmark rate as they try and head off a recession. Meanwhile, the country’s trade balance deficit increased to -£7.6 billion as rising imports offset a slight increase in exports, showing that consumer consumption has remain resilient despite the housing slump and slowing economy. Euro's weakness against the yen helped keep the dollar down against the Japanese currency.JPY tested a high of 110.40 and was a supported at 109.60.

Aussie continued to pluge-Aug 11.

Australian Dollar continued its recent plunge this time as the USD strengthened, breaking through .9000 for the first time since March and confirming the biggest 3 week fall since 1980. Aussie fell after the central bank indicated that official interest rates could be lowered in the months to come as the economy slows. Looking ahead, RBA Monetary Policy statement.

Tech Outlook:

AUD is seen on a downtrend and is expected to trade in the range of 0.8770-0.8962 levels. With good support seen at 0.8750 levels and key resistance is seen at 0.8980 levels. Stochastic says Aussie is seen trading in a oversold territory but doesn't give any confirmation of uptrend. Currency has breached the lower Band level.

Euro and Pound on a FreeFall-Aug 11.

Euro broke through the Key 1.5000 level and continued to fall testing the 1.4980 level . Falling Oil and a readjustment of Euro zone economic outlooks the main catalyst. Looking ahead, German Wholesale Price index which is expected at 0.5% in July. Sterling tracked the Euro lower breaking through supports at 1.9410 to year lows. Market is awaiting the BOE Inflation report for further Interest rate direction. . Looking ahead, July PPI Core Output is seen at 0.4%, PPI input at 1% and PPI Output at 0.5%. Also released the June trade Balance seen at -7.4Bln.

Tech Outlook:

EURO chart pattern hints towards a downtrend to continue for the day. With the trading range expected between 1.4890-1.5030.With good support seen at 1.4875 levels and key resistance is seen at 1.5050 levels. Stochastic is seen oversold territory but doesn't give any confirmation for uptrend. Currency is also seen trading below the moving average and also breached lower Band levels.

GBP chart pattern indicates bear note to continue for the day .With good support seen at 1.9030 levels and key resistance at 1.9220 levels . With the trading range expected between 1.9050-1.9210.MACD is seen well below the signal line giving Bearish crossovers. Currency is also trading well below the moving averages.

Indian Rupee trimmed gains-aug 11

Indian Rupee rose on soft oil prices and firm Asian stock markets which is likely to attract fresh inflows providing key support for the local unit

Tech Outlook:

USD/INR is expected to trade mixed with the trading range expected between 41.88-42.12.With good support seen at 41.85 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.18 levels. Currency is trading below the moving averages giving a bear note . Stochastic is seen trending down but caution required as currency is seen trading in oversold territory.

Evening report aug 08

The Rupee weakened as oil prices held close to $120 per barrel after rebounding from three-month lows in the previous session raising worries of higher trade deficit. The dollar was supported by a surprise increase in the US June pending home sales report. The dollar rallied on as the European Central Bank's caution on its growth outlook shifted the focus of economic concerns from the United States to the rest of the world. The Euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar .In economic news, the Italian Gross Domestic Product declined 0.3% sequentially in the second quarter compared with 0.5% growth in the first quarter, a preliminary report from the statistical office ISTAT revealed. Yen traded at 109.70 levels for the day. Sterling tumbled to its lowest in more than a year against the dollar , dropped sharply overnight in to below $1.93 after the Bank of England's decision to keep rates at 5pc prompted more traders to expect that the Bank will eventually cut rates.

Aussie broke the psychological-aug 08.

Australian Dollar broke 0.90000 level and fell as traders increased bets that the central bank will reduce borrowing costs and on strong USD but held up well against other currencies after the July Employment report surprised to the upside. July Unemployment change was +10.9K .

Tech Outlook:
AUD is seen on a bear note and is expected to trade in the range of 0.8890-0.9050 levels. With good support seen at 0.8840 levels and key resistance is seen at 0.9070 levels. Market has breached the psychological level of 0.9000 and is trending down .Currency is seen trading well below the moving averages confirming the downside move

Euro and Pound lost ground against greenback

Euro was sold heavily and broke 1.5300 levels as ECB President talked about slowing growth in the ECB post rate press conference. The ECB held rates at 4.25% and although Trichet spoke about inflation the market responded to comments on growth. Currency slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy. Sterling fell with the Euro as the Bank of England also held rates. No statement was released but recent economic data made the bias a cut in coming months. The Halifax House Price Index fell -1.7% last month.

Tech Outlook:

EURO chart pattern hints towards a downtrend to continue for the day. With the trading range expected between 1.5180-1.5330.With good support seen at 1.5150 levels break of which will see 1.5120 and key resistance is seen at 1.5350 levels. Stochastic lies in oversold territory but doesn't give any confirmation for uptrend. Currency is also seen trading below the moving average. Momentum is also trending down.

GBP chart pattern indicates bear note to continue for the day .With good support seen at 1.9150 levels and key resistance at 1.9520 levels .trading range for the day is expected to lie between 1.9180-1.9490.MACD is seen well below the signal line giving Bearish crossovers and Momentum is also signaling down confirming the bear note.

Rupee weakend

Rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar raising worries of higher trade deficit as banks bought the greenback noting its rise against most Asian currencies and rise in global crude oil prices. However, dollar sales from exporters around 42.20-42.24.24.

Tech View:
USD/INR is expected to trade in a bull note for the day. With the trading range of 42.10-42.38.With good support seen at 42.05 levels and key resistance is seen at 42.42 levels. Currency is trading on the moving average only a break above can confirm the trend. Stochastic has turned from oversold levels.

Evening report

Rupee extended gained as oil prices stayed below $119 per barrel while a firm stock market also revived hopes of some foreign fund inflows. The dollar weakened broadly as dealers took profits from its recent gains ahead of two major interest rate decisions in Europe, and as selling in oil paused after prices hit three-month lows the previous day. The Euro was higher ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, supported by figures showing a bumper German trade surplus and anticipation the bank may release a fairly hawkish statement to accompany its decision. Yen's gains were limited after Japan's government said the economy was weakening and may have entered a recession .Meanwhile the Pound was steady ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate left its benchmark interest rate at 5.00 percent as the economy continues to show downside growth potential and prices remain inflated. The Australian dollar firmed off four-month lows finding some respite after stronger-than-expected jobs growth in July, though interest rate cuts are still expected.

Australian Dollar under continued pressure -jul 07.

Australian Dollar came under continued pressure as home loan data confirmed a weakening in the housing industry and the commodity complex continued to fall. AUD/JPY did manage to eek out small gains. Looking ahead for Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 4.3% in July with a employment change +1.25K.

Tech Outlook:
AUD is seen on a consolidation phase and is expected to trade in the range of 0.9050-0.9155 levels. With good support seen at 0.9040 levels and key resistance is seen at 0.9170 levels. Stochastic says Aussie is seen trading in a oversold territory and is expected to give a slight upward correction and Band analysis is also supporting the view.

Eur and Pound remain sidelined ahead of rate decision.-Aug 07.

Euro remained on the back foot as economic data disappointed and speculation mounted ECB President Trichet might change tone on the European economy. June German Factory Orders fell -2.9% in a surprise fall with the markets expecting a +0.4%. Looking ahead for ECB Interest Rate announcement widely expected to hold at 4.25%. Also released the June German Trade Balance seen at $15 Billion, and Import Prices forecast to rise 1.4%. June German Industrial Production is expected at 0.8%. Sterling fell below the Key 1.9500 level on USD strength but was able to make gains against the JPY. Looking ahead for BOE Interest Rate announcement widely tipped to stay at 5.00%.

tech view:

EURO chart pattern hints towards a downtrend to continue for the day. With the trading range expected between 1.5340-1.5480.With good support seen at 1.5320 levels and key resistance is seen at 1.5500 levels. Stochastic lies in oversold territory but doesn't give any confirmation for uptrend. Currency is also seen trading below the moving average.

GBP chart pattern indicates bear note to continue for the day .With good support seen at 1.9430 levels and key resistance at 1.9520 levels .trading range for the day is expected to lie between 1.9420-1.9510.MACD is seen well below the signal line giving Bearish crossovers.

Rupee trimmed gains-Aug 07.

Rupee trimmed early gains against the dollar after importers stepped in to buy the greenback. There seems to be some buying from foreign banks below 42 per $1 levels. Rupee may take further cues from the movement in the local share markets.

Tech Outlook:

USD/INR is expected to trade mixed with the trading range expected between 41.90-42.20.With good support seen at 41.85 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.26 levels. Currency is trading below the moving averages giving a bear note . Stochastic is seen trending down but caution required as currency is seen trading in oversold territory.

Evening report

Firming equity markets and fall in global crude oil prices led the Indian rupee to surge further by 23 paise to 42.01/03, against the greenback in early trade.The dollar hit a seven-month high as a signal from the Federal Reserve that interest rates would stay low for some time lifted U.S. stocks and offered hope that its policy would support the U.S. economy.EURUSD slide against dollar and tested a low of 1.5450 levels as German factory orders fell for the seventh month in June creating speculation that the economy contracted in the second quarter. Manufacturing faltered 2.9 percent amid high food and energy costs pushing up the cost of production. GBPUSD tested a low of 1.9521 as U.K. consumer confidence posted its largest decline in four years, dropping 11 points to 51. Confidence continues to decline amid the housing slump, unemployment on the rise, higher living costs, and inflated prices. Despite talks of a recession and inflationary pressures Bank of England is expected to leave its rates at 5.00 percent, for the fourth consecutive month. USDJPY rose to 108.67 levels as the coincident index fell to 101.7 in June from 103.3 in May. The leading index showing the economy is showing downside growth potential. Japanese government has acknowledged that stagflation is beginning to set in, ending Japan’s post war expansion. slowdown is expected to be moderate as companies have dismissed additional workers and exports are boosted to emerging markets, removing the risk of recession.

aud continued to fall

Australian Dollar continued to fall after the RBA held rates at 7.25% and release of a dovish accompanying statement. The RBA opened the door to rate cuts with the comment ‘scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing.
Tech view
AUD is expected to be mixed note for the day . trading range is expected between 0.9141 -0.9190 levels for the day. support is seen at 0.9135 levels and holds resistance at 0.9195 levels for the day. Momentum hints for slight upward movement yet the ripples of chart pattern does not confirm the uptrend.

aud continued to fall

Australian Dollar continued to fall after the RBA held rates at 7.25% and release of a dovish accompanying statement. The RBA opened the door to rate cuts with the comment ‘scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing.
Tech view
AUD is expected to be mixed note for the day . trading range is expected between 0.9141 -0.9190 levels for the day. support is seen at 0.9135 levels and holds resistance at 0.9195 levels for the day. Momentum hints for slight upward movement yet the ripples of chart pattern does not confirm the uptrend.

EURO unchanged

Euro unchanged through 1.5500 in early European trading as Oil fell below the key $120 per barrel level and European sales were negative at -0.6% in June. A brief rally after the FOMC held at 2.00% was quickly reversed with Euro hovering at day lows for the remainder of the US session. Looking ahead for German Industrial Orders for June forecast 0.4%. Sterling fell in sympathy with the Euro in the face of broad based USD strength. June PMI services were slightly better than expected at 47.4 .June Industrial Production weakened -0.2%.
Tech View:
EURO chart pattern the currency to have an consolidation for the day. trading range is expected between 1.5440-1.5510 for the day. currency has its support at 1.5390 levels and resistance at 1.5525 levels for the day. Stochastic gives the clue for slight upward correction yet needs more confirmation from the market movement.

Rupee gained to 2 week high- Aug 06.

Rupee gained to a near two-week high against the dollar as local shares also rose mirroring global indices after the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 2% and said that inflation may moderate this year, boosting sentiment for shares. However, oil companies are likely to purchase dollars around the current levels, which could provide some resistance to rupee's gains .

Tech view:

USD/INR is expected to trade bear note with the trading range expected between 41.90-42.20.With good support seen at 41.85 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.26 levels. Currency is trading below the moving averages giving a bear note . Stochastic is seen trending down but caution required as currency is seen trading in oversold territory.

Evening Report- Aug 05.

The rupee gained and closed at 42.24 , drop in global oil prices to near three-month lows helped to ease some worries of a wider trade deficit, but see-sawing stocks curbed sharp gains.US dollar rose to a seven-week high against a basket of major currencies, drawing support from a sharp drop in oil prices that had also pushed the aussie down to a four-month low.The Euro fell below 1.5470 hit by a bigger-than-expected fall in euro zone retail sales and succumbing to the dollar's broad rise on softer oil prices before an interest rate decision by the Federal ReserveSterling hit a 1-1/2-month low of 1.9520 against the dollar as investors continued to shun the currency on the view that Britain's economy is deteriorating, while awaiting this week's decision on British interest rates.Manufacturing and industrial output showed falls during June, causing investors to bet second quarter gross domestic product could be revised down..Dollar-yen slipped to 107.68,General demand for the greenback, in tandem with a weaker oil price then provided support, taking the pair back to 108.00 levels.Australian dollar fell below 0.9150 and was among the weakest performers after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates at 7.25 percent but sent a strong signal that it will ease policy soon to mitigate the effects of slowing demand

Australian Dollar Falls on Rate-Cut Signal-Aug 05.

Australian Dollar an initial bounce throughout the Asian and European session was unable to be maintained as Gold and Oil fell considerable and the USD strengthened during the US session. Home prices fell -0.3% . Looking ahead for RBA meet to discuss interest rates, widely believed to hold at 7.25% but with a risk of cut or dovish statement given recent economic data.

Tech View:

AUD is expected to be on a bearish note for the day. With the trading range expected between 0.9150-0.9310.With good support seen at 0.9120 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9325.Currency is seen trading below the moving averages giving bearish outlook but caution is required as stochastic is seen in oversold levels .

Euro and pound falls ahead of FED decision-Aug 05.

The Euro traded in a tight range as markets wait for the interest rate decision during the week with the US on Tuesday and ECB on Thursday. Small gains on the back of higher than expected Euro zone PPI in June of 0.9% were relinquished by large falls in Crude Oil. Looking ahead for July Euro zone PMI service’s which is forecast at 48.3. Also June Retail Sales with expectation of -0.6% . Sterling was the big loser of the day as economic concerns mounted and expectations of rates cuts intensified. Construction PMI in July dropped again to 36.7. . Looking ahead for July PMI services with forecast at 46.7 and June Manufacturing Production expected flat 0.0%

Tech view:

EURO is expected to be on a bearish note. With the trading range expected between 1.5470-1.5620.With good support seen at 1.5450 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 1.5630 levels. Currency is seen trading below the moving averages and is expected to test the lower Band level .Parabolic is also supporting the bear note.

Rupee gained notinga fall in crude oil prices -aug 05.

Rupee gained against the dollar at open as banks sold the greenback noting that crude oil prices fell to a three-month low. Dollar sales from exporters may also help the Indian unit to gain against the greenback. However, dollar demand from importers around 42.45 could restrict a sharp rise in the rupee

Tech View:
USD/INR is expected to trade in bear note with the trading range of 42.20-42.46.With good support seen at 42.12 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.55.Stochastic is seen trending down and currency is also seen trading below the moving averages confirming the bear note.

Evening report- aug 04.

Rupee weakened and closed at 42.48 levels on raised concerns of higher oil prices aud widening trade deficit to record levels , losses in the local share market also weighing on sentiment.U.S. dollar was softer ahead of interest rate decisions in the US and Europe, as central banks wrestle with the twin threats of weak economic growth and rising inflation.EURUSD traded in a narrow range amid Stagflation pressures which continue to mount in the Euro-Zone, as factory prices gained 8 percent in June. Amid high living costs, manufacturers passed additional costs onto consumers. Producer prices increased by the most in 18 years, bringing the ECB’s dilemma over how to balance growing inflation and downside growth into focus. The ECB council is expected to "do in the future what is appropriate to deliver price stability." Sterling continued it’s downward decent as the prospects of a rate hike from the BoE have all but vanished.Housing market deterioration is accelerating as tight credit markets have left borrowers on the sideline while the glut of inventory continues to pile up.The central bank is expected to keep their benchmark rate on hold despite the expectations that inflation will rise above 4%Japanese yen weakened to 4-day lows against the majors and tested 108.07..AUDUSD traded in green and tested 0.9340 Amid the RBA benchmark interest rate speculation. Australian house prices fell for the first time in three years as home buyers stayed out of the market. The falling house prices support RBA Govenor Glenn Steven’s view that the economy will slow enough to cool inflationary pressures

Aussie slight correction-aug 04.

Australian dollar has taken a big hit as investors have been caught off guard by a sharp shift in expectations towards interest rate cuts.
AUD is expected to be on a bullish note for the day. With the trading range expected between 0.9230-0.9410.With good support seen at 0.9220 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9425.Currency is seen trading below the moving averages giving bearish outlook but stochastic has turned from the oversold levels giving cues for the uptrend.

Euro in narrow rangebut pound slipes

Eurusd stick to narrow trading ranges before the European Central Bank's policy announcement .ECB will continue to sound hawkish, because they continue to worry about inflation rather than growth

Tech outlook:
EURO is expected to give a mixed signals for the day. With the trading range expected between 1.5500-1.5620 levels for the day. With good support seen at 1.5480 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 1.5650.Momentum is signaling a downtrend and currency is also seen trading below the moving average remaining supportive for the red signal. But Stochastic is hinting towards the possibility of slight upward correction for intra day.

GBP is expected to continue its downtrend and is expected to trade range of 1.9680-1.9780.With good support seen at 1.9670 levels and resistance for the currency is seen at 1.9790 levels. Chart pattern hints towards bear trend and the currency is trading below the moving average confirming the bear note and is expected to test the lower Bollinger levels.

Rupee weakened on concerns of the trade deficit-aug 04.

Rupee weakened in midday trade on Monday as higher oil prices raised concerns of the trade deficit again widening to record levels with losses in the local share market also weighing on sentiment.USD/INR is expected to trade mixed with the trading range expected between 42.28-42.57.With good support seen at 42.20 levels and key resistance for the currency is seen at 42.62 levels. Currency is trading below the moving averages so only a break above 42.47 could confirm the uptrend. Stochastic is seen trending up extending its support for bull note.