YEN LITLLE CHANGED

The yen was little changed after the Bank of Japan kept the overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent today.
TECH VIEW FOR THE DAY
yen is seen on bear note for the day. currency sees its support at 103.30 levels and holds resistance at 104.40 levels. the trading range is expected between 103.35-104.30 levels. band is widened and still waiting for the confirmation for the near term trend.. the momentum is still in neutral territory and remains silent on the issue. stochastic indicates downside for the day.

POUND FELL

pound fell to $1.9683 from $1.9697. It was poised for its biggest monthly loss in 2008 before a report that is forecast by economists to show U.K. house prices fell for a sixth month in April and also dropped the most in a week against the dollar after official data showed mortgage approvals in the U.K fell in March to the lowest level in at least nine years, prompting traders to raise bets on more interest-rate cuts.

TECH VIEW FOR THE DAY

POUND chart pattern indicates the prices to be downtrend. currency has its support at 1.9620 levels and resistance at 1.9730 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.9630-1.9725 levels for the day. stochastic indicates the currency to be on oversold position and thereby side the currency on bear note. the momentum is giving indication of the currency to be on downside for the day

EURO ON MIXED NOTE

EURO chart pattern indicates a mixed note for the day . support is seen at 1.5520 levels and resistance at 1.5660 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.5530-1.5650 levels. the bollinger indicates the bear note hence a confirmation for the day is seen if the currency breaks 1.5520 levels. the momentum is trending downwards and gives the clues for the currency to be on down side for near term.

RUPEE STRENGTHNED

Rupee strengthened on expectation on profit sales by foreign banks on behalf of exporters and dollar demand from oil companies restricted sharp rise.
tech view for the day.
Rupee is expected to be on a range bound movement for the day. With the trading range of 40.30-40.45 levels. With good support seen at 40.10 and key resistance is seen at 40.50 levels. The currency is expected to be on a tight range But the prices are still above the fast moving averages .

AUSSIE IS TRACKING COMMODITY PRICES

AUD grinned higher on Monday tracking commodity prices and a relatively quiet dollar as investors pause before the Fed’s rate announcement on Wednesday. Looking ahead for the NAB Business Confidence for Q1 to be announced with not much change from its previous level .

TECH VIEW:
AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9330-0.9420.With good support seen at 0.9320 an key resistance for the currency is seen at 0.9430.Currency is expected to give a slight correction for the day as the averages of MACD line are showing bearish crossovers and momentum is also supporting the bear trend.

JPY ON MIXED NOTE

JPY traded sideways throughout the day held within a 60 pip range all day. Looking ahead for the day are the Japanese Unemployment rate to be announced on with expectations of no change since its last result of 3.9%.

TECH VIEW:
YEN is expected to trade in the range of 103.90-104.70.With good support seen at 103.70 and resistance for the currency is seen at 104.90 levels. JPY is expected to be bull note with a tight trading range as it is seen trading well above the fast and slow moving averages and the sensitivity indicator stochastic is also supporting the view.

Pound follows Euro in the rangebound trade

GBP also managed to stay within range despite falling House Prices in April. House prices fell -0.6% in April, their seventh consecutive monthly fall, to be down -0.9% on a year earlier. Economic uncertainty and the global credit crisis were the blame for reduced activity in the residential property market. Mortgage Approvals are also announced with expectations of a drop to 69k.

Tech view:

POUND is expected to trade in the range of 1.9830-1.9950.With good support seen at 1.9810 and resistance is seen at 1.9970.sterling is seen on a bearish note as the stochastic and Relative strength Index are supporting the bear note and currency is also seen trading below the fast and slow moving average but only crossovers of the same would confirm the view.

Euro on a range bound move

Euro was very much range bound amid speculation the Federal Reserve will signal the end to rate cuts at its meeting this week. Annual inflation in Germany fell more than expected from 3.1% . This data will give the ECB confidence in the fact that the Euro Zone inflation may have seen its peak at 3.6% in March. The German Consumer Confidence index rose to 5.9 in May easily surpassing the 4.4 fore casted and rising from 4.8 in April. Investors are on pause as they wait for key data releases coming out of the U.S before they take up positions in the market. Sure to add volatility to the market Euro Zone’s CPI estimate for April is expected to be announced with forecasts of a slight decline from 3.6% to 3.5%.

Tech view:
EURO is expected to trade in the range of 1.5590-1.5720.With good support seen at 1.5580 and key resistance is seen at 1.5730.The currency is trading below the fast moving averages but stochastic and Relative strength Index have turned from oversold levels there by giving clues for the bull run. Currency is also seen trending up after taking a the lower Bands in Bollinger.

Rupee steady ahead of monetary policy

Indian rupee was steady against the U.S. currency as banks avoided major dollar positions ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's annual monetary policy statement at noon today. We expect the central bank to leave interest rates and the cash reserve ratio unchanged in the policy.

Tech view:

Rupee is expected to be on a range bound movement for the day. With the trading range of 40.08-40.25 levels. With good support seen at 40.05 and key resistance is seen at 40.28 levels. The currency is expected to be on a tight range as the Bollinger band width is narrowed. But the prices are still above the fast moving averages only giving a hint to the bull trend.

rupee was seen steady

The Indian rupee was barely changed in opening deals traders are expected on not taking big positions ahead of the central bank's policy review on Tuesday.
tech view
Rupee is expected to be in the BULL note with range between 40.05 -40.25 .With good support seen at 40.00 . key resistance for the currency is seen at 40.28 levels. Currency is seen trading above the fast moving averages and the Relative Market strength index is also seen bullish .

Aussie gained

The Australian dollar gained on rising commodity prices and on optimism the worst of the global credit-market crisis may be over.
Tech outlook

AUD chart pattern indicates uptrend for the day .Momentum is trending towards upwards and RSI also supports the BULL trend . currency lends its support at 0.9305 and resistance at 0.9420 levels. The trading range is expected between 0.9310-0.9390 levels.

Euro and pound trend

The Euro was steady at $1.5633 rebounding from an earlier low of $1.5593.U.S. economic data last week showing resilience in some sectors such as the labour market contrasted with a sharp drop in business sentiment in Germany. That news, combined with ECB policymakers' comments highlighting worries about excessive volatility in the currency market had dampened expectations for a rate hike in the Euro zone and hurt the Euro.

Tech view for Euro &GBP
EURO is expected to trade on mixed note for the day. currency lends its support at 1.5550 and break of it would test 1.5508 levels. good resistance is seen at1.5730 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.5580-1.5710 levels. the momentum is trending towards down and stochastic also in oversold region indicates the currency to be on downside. yet a confirmation of downtrend is seen when currency breaks 1.5560 levels.
POUND chart pattern predicts the currency to be downside . currency lends its support at 1.9750 levels and holds resistance at 1.9920 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.9760-1.9880 levels.the momentum is trending down indicating the currency to be on bear note. fast stochastic shows the sterling to be on overbought levels giving clues for the currency to be on downside for the day.

Yen under mixed note

yen was hurt as Tokyo shares climbed to two-month highs, further supporting the view that the worst of the credit crisis is over. A slight recovery in investor confidence encouraged traders to move back into risky carry trades, in which the low-yielding yen is used to fund investments in higher-yielding currencies and assets.
Tech view
YEN chart pattern indicates the currency on a mixed note for the day. currency expected to give a slight downward correction for near term . support is seen at 103.90 levels and holds resistance at 105.30 levels. the trading range is expected between 104.00-105.20 levels. momentum is indicating the currency to be overbought levels thereby indicating a slight downside on near term.

RUPEE TRADES HIGHER

Rupee could open slightly higher taking clues from the global share indices. currency was seen trading in green as some banks may sell dollars anticipating inflows from foreign funds. Dollar sales from exporters may add to the rise in the Indian unit. However the oil companies may buy the greenback to meet their month-end requirements and hence limit a sharp rise in the rupee .

TECH VIEW

Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 40.07-40.30.With key support seen at 40.05 levels and key resistance is seen at 40.40 levels. Currency lies well above the fast moving averages confirming the bull run .Relative market index is also supporting the view.

EURO WEAKENS

The Euro took a dive as the dollar strengthened on the back of growing speculation the Fed will leave rates on hold at 2.25% combined with declining business confidence in Germany and France with the IFO Business Index . The Euro 's Current Account for February saw a surplus of $5bn compared to a deficit of -$19.1bn in January. Whilst this figure on face value is positive it could actually signal weakening demand throughout the Euro Zone leading to less imports rather than growing exports. The weakening Euro shows that there was growing feeling of caution among investors about buying the Euro as there is a growing sentiment that the Fed will stop cutting rates for a while after this month.
TECH VIEW
Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5630-1.5740.With good support seen at 1.5610 break of it would see the currency at 1.5590.Resistance seen at 1.5650.Momentum and Histograms also indicates the currency to be on a downtrend .Currency is expected to test the lower Bollinger bands for the day.

JPY MIXED NOTE

JPY lost 1% against the greenback to 104.39 as the positive data coming out from the U.S along with stronger equities saw the yen lose ground. Japanese CPI for the month of March came in as fore casted at 1.2%
TECH VIEW
Yen is seen on a mixed note for the day. Widen Band the currency to have further highs on near term. The Currency lends its support at 103.80 and holds its resistance at 104.70 levels. Trading range is expected to lie between103.70-104.60.Momentum holds strong but stochastic lies in overbought territory giving clues for the possibility of slight market correction.

AUD DECLINES

AUD paired its recent gains against the dollar as U.S strength and weak commodity prices led to the decline. The Aussie has dropped 2% since reaching a 24-year high of 0.9541 in Wednesday’s trading. A contributing factor to this is the mounting speculation the RBA is unlikely to hike rates given the recent growing CPI figures for Australia. The Australian and New Zealand market is closed on Friday as it is the Anzac Day public holiday.
TECH VIEW
AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on bear note for the day. Trading range for Aussie is expected to lie between 0.9330-0.9440.With good support seen at 0.9320 and resistance at 0.9450 levels . Momentum indicates the currency to give a downward correction for the day and stochastic supports the view.

GBP DECLINES

.GBP rose the most against the Euro in more than a week after a government report today showed UK retail sales grew faster than forecast reducing the scope for further interest rate cuts. Gains were seen in sales of 4.6% . The pound did decline against the dollar as positive U.S data and growing speculation the Fed will leave rates on hold at 2.25% fueled the resurgence. Looking ahead for the day are the Q1 GDP figures with forecasts of 0.4% growth compared to 0.6% growth for Q4. GDP y/y is also forecast to be trimmed to 2.6%
TECH VIEW
GBP is expected to be downside for the day .currency has good support at 1.9680 and holds resistance at 1.9770.the trading range is expected between 1.9690-1.9750 levels. the momentum signals the currency to have an downward correction. sterling is seen trading below the fast moving averages and stochastic gives the clues for the currency to trend downside.

yen seen weak

JPY weakened against the greenback as risk appetite saw the return to carry trades. The market continued its focus on the high yielding currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi, pushing the yen lower. Looking ahead for the day core CPI is to be released on Friday with forecasts predicting an increase from 1% in March to 1.2%

Tech view
Yen is seen on uptrend for the day. Candle pattern shows the currency has opened above the previous close and expects the bull trend to continue . Momentum is trending strong and thereby supports currency to remain on upper side. the stochastic also remains the same. currency sees its support at 102.80 levels and holds resistance at 104.40levels. the trading range is expected to between 102.90 -104.20

Historic day for aussie

AUD had a historic day as it broke through the US95c mark for the first time in 24 years as a strong CPI figure of 1.3% m/m and 4.2% y/y for Q1 fuelled the surge. However, this rise lost steam as the USD gained on the back of weak Euro economic data, which saw the Aussie fall back below US95c.No data is to be released out of Australia leading into the Anzac Day public holiday on friday whereby the local markets will be closed.

tech view

AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on bear note for the day. currency has its support at 0.9420 levels and holds resistance at 0.9510 levels. the trading range is expected between 0.9430-0.9500 levels. Momentum supports the currency to give a downward correction and stochastic supports the view.

Sterling strengthened

GBP strengthened against the dollar after the BoE minutes showed two votes against easing policy this month. However gains were short-lived as the news did not change expectations of another rate cut in June by the BoE. Furthermore BoE policymakers commented on the weakness of the pound and its undesirable impact on oil and commodity prices adding to the inflationary pressures being felt by the British economy and highlighted reservations about easing interest rates too quickly

Tech outlook
Pound chart pattern indicates the currency to have downside correction for the day. currency lends its support at 1.9720 and holds resistance at 1.9840 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.9730-1.9830 levels. MACD crossover indicates currency to be on bear note .stochastic remain in neutral territory. Band indicates the trading pattern to remain in tight .

Euro retreated on poor data

EURO retreated on poorer than predicted economic data released out of the Euro Zone which saw PMI Manufacturing Index drop to 50.8 to its lowest level in nearly three years. Looking a head for the day February's Current Account is to be released on Thursday following January's deficit of -$19.1bn. Investment flow for February is also to be released on Thursday with January's results indicating a flow of $22.1bn.

Tech outlook
Euro is seen on downtrend for the day as consolidation of prices is expected . chart pattern indicates the trend to move on bear note. currency lends its support at 1.5880 and breach of it would test 1.5790 levels. Resistance is seen at 1.5940 levels. the currency is expected to trade between 1.5805-1.5920 levels. Stochastic trending downwards and the band remains in direction of bear trend to continue for the near term.

rupee eased early gains

Rupee eased on early gains as PSU banks were buying dollars for the oil related demand. Local share indices are seen rising today that is likely to strengthen views that foreign funds may be buying. Dollar sales by exporters could also aid rise in the rupee big gains are unlikely as state-run banks may step in to buy dollars at the behest of the Reserve Bank of India.

Tech view

Rupee is expected to move upper side for the day. With good support seen at 39.93 and key resistance for the currency is seen at 40.20 levels. trading range is expected between 39.95 -40.18 levels. Currency is seen trading on the fast moving averages and the Relative Market strength index is in neutral territory.

vkc research: rupee eased early gains

vkc research: rupee eased early gains

EURO AT RECORD HIGHS

EURO broke through $1.60 for the very first time as ECB officials voiced their continual concerns over inflation which led investors on a buying frenzy to crack through the psychological barrier which had been tested on a couple of occasions throughout the last week but had found resistance. ECB official stated that if inflation doesn’t slow next year the ECB will move rates if needed. Mersch went on to say that its getting likely the ECB will have to adjust the inflation projection upward in June despite the slowing growth in the region and continued financial market turmoil. Looking ahead for the day are German PMI Services and PMI Manufacturing with little change fore casted from March’s figures of 51.8 and 55.1 respectively. Industrial Orders for February is also out on Wednesday with forecasts of 0% growth m/m, down from 2% m/m in January.

TECHNICAL DAY FOR THE DAY

EURO is moving above the fast moving averages and now trading at record highs. currency is expected to have bull rally for the day with immediate resistance at 1.60045 levels. currency sees its support at 1.5930.the trading range is expected between 1.5940-1.60040 levels. the stochastic is in overbought levels and momentum giving downward direction giving clues of the currency to have slight downward correction in near terms.

AUD STRENGTHENED

AUD strengthened in the lead up to the release of the CPI figure however it could not break through the 26 year high of 0.9499. CPI is expected to come in at 1.1% q/q for Q1 and 4.0% y/y. This is a slight increase from 0.9% q/q and 3.0% y/y for Q4. Look for movements in the Aussie dollar if CPI data comes in better or worse than expected.
TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY.

AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on bull note for the day. the currency has its support at 0.9410 levels and holds resistance at 0.9540 levels. the trading range is expected between 0.9415-0.9530 levels. Momentum supports the currency to be upper side and stochastic also indicates the bull run to continue for the day.

YEN ON MIXED NOTE

Yen was seen on a range bound trade as Japanese government bonds fell reversing a gain on speculation of accelerating inflation which means the BOJ is more likely to raise interest rates than reduce them in future meetings. Looking ahead for the day is the Japanese Trade Balance with expectations of $1400bn up from $970bn for February.

TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY
yen is seen on mixed note for the day. RSI supports the currency to be on upside and momentum also supports the same. currency lends its support at 102.40 levels and holds resistance at 103.60 levels. the trading range is expected between 102.50-103.50 levels.

Rupee seen flat

India Rupee was seen Flat on lack of fresh cue as banks avoided taking big dollar positions Rupee is likely to remain steady for some more days as there is no specific direction from overseas stock indices currency is expected to move in a narrow range until the RBI policy . Dollar demand from oil companies is expected to limit any sharp rise in rupee.
technical for the day
Rupee is expected to be in the narrow range of 39.88-40.00.With good support seen at 39.85 and 39.82. key resistance for the currency is seen at 40.05 levels. Currency is seen trading on the fast moving averages and the Relative Market strength index is also seen flat indicating a narrow trade.

Evening Report

India Rupee Down on dollar demand from foreign banks. Custodial banks are buying dollars. It could be for FIIs or importers. Rupee is unlikely to fall much as exporters may sell dollars. The dollar took back some ground early Wednesday, a day after the Euro rose to $1.60 for the first time ever. The dollar has been weighed down by a combination of gloomy U.S. economic data and high European inflation fueling expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates yet again, while the ECB will leave rates unchanged. The Euro was steady against the U.S. dollar after the release of mixed Euro zone PMI data, which showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in manufacturing activity, but an unexpected gain in services. pound rose after the minutes to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier this month revealed two votes to leave interest rates on hold. Japanese yen lost ground against most of its major counterparts .yen also dropped to a new multi-month low versus the Euro. Australian dollar climbed to the highest after a government report showed consumer prices rose at the fastest annual rate in seven years fueling speculation the central bank will resume raising interest rates.

Evening Report

The rupee stayed firm as some banks sold the greenback on behalf of foreign funds and exporters. There are mild inflows from foreign institutional investors and some exporters are also selling .However the Indian unit could not rise significantly above 39.92 because of dollar purchases by state-run banks leading to beliefs it may be for the Reserve Bank of India . The dollar lost ground against majors as corporate earnings continued to pour in ahead of a pivotal report on the US housing situation.The Euro traded in green as hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials overnight raised speculation the ECB might consider increasing interest rates rather than keeping them on hold. The pound fell from a two-week high against the dollar. JPY despite the recent rebound expectations are that Japanese consumers are starting to curb their spending as they battle rising food and energy costs. This has been evident with convenience store sales and demand fro services declining. The BoJ is expected to keep their benchmark rate unchanged despite the growing effects of the credit crisis and U.S downturn on its economy.

AUD GAINED

AUD powered as Core PPI easily surpassed forecasts for Q1 .This highlights the remaining inflationary concerns facing the RBA with all eyes focused on the CPI Q1 figure with forecasts of 1.1% .

TECH OUTLOOK

AUD chart pattern indicates downtrend for the day .Momentum is trending towards downwards and Bollinger also supports the bear trend . currency lends its support at 0.9390 and resistance at 0.9460 levels. The trading range is expected between 0.9400-0.9450 levels.

GBP FELL AGINST MAJORS

GBP fell against the majors as the BOE confirmed speculation by announcing a plan to relieve the liquidity problems in the UK financial network by accepting at least 50 billion pounds of mortgage-backed securities in exchange for UK Treasury bills to lower credit costs and help revive lending by banks.

technical view
Pound is seen on bull run for the day. currency lends its support at 1.9720 levels and holds resistance at 1.9880 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.97300-1.9875 levels. RSI indicates the currency strong . Momentum is trending towards upside and tunes currency to be on upper side for the day.

yen strengthened

Yen strengthened as weaker U.S equity profit results dampened investors initial optimism that companies may escape the global credit crisis relatively unharmed. Japan’s Trade Balance is to be released with expectations of the deficit growing to US$1400bn .

tech view

yen is expected to move on downside for the day. support is seen at 102.40 levels and resistance at 103.60 levels. the trading range is expected between 102.50-103.55 levels for the day. the momentum is trending downside .stochastic shows the currency towards the oversold area thereby giving caution of downtrend to continue for the day.

euro rallied in morning session

The Euro rallied to within the record high against the dollar as ECB officials reiterated the concern of an accelerating inflation on the Euro, increasing the chances interest rates will stay at six-year high for some time yet. The Euro gained momentum after policy maker Liebscher stated that record oil prices are beginning to push up wage demands and maintain a high inflation level. Looking ahead the focus is on Wednesday’s data releases with German and Euro PMI Manufacturing figures with forecasts of 54.8 for Germany and 51.5 for the Euro Zone PMI Services is also to be released on Wednesday with expectations of a similar level to earlier figures.

tech view
EURO is trading above the fast moving average. chart pattern indicates mixed note to continue for the day with opening higher than previous close. currency lends its support at 1.5840 levels and holds its resistance at 1.5990 levels. the trading range is expected between 1.5845-1.5985 levels. the stochastic trending towards the uptrend and momentum remaining in neutral territory.

Rupee on a narrow trade

Rupee was seen marginally higher as some banks sold dollars expecting inflows from exporters and foreign funds. But the gains were limited on the view that RBI may buy dollars

tech view

Rupee is expected to trade in the narrow range of 39.85-40.00.With good support seen at 39.80 and key resistance for the currency is seen at 40.05 levels. Currency is seen trading above the fast moving averages and the Relative Market strength index is also hinting the currency to give a slight upward correction for the day.

euro on mixed note

EURO is expected to be on mixed note for the day . the prices are trading on the moving average and the momentum is trending upward . currency has its support at 1.5765 and resistance at 1.5930.The trading range is expected between 1.5770-1.5920 confirmation on uptrend is seen only if the currency breaks 5860 levels.

AUD ROSE

The Australian dollar rose after a government report showed producer prices climbed by a record in the first quarter. The New Zealand dollar advanced as rising equities encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
technicals for the day
AUD chart pattern indicates uptrend for the day .the momentum is trending towards the bull run and stochastic supports for the same. currency lends its support at 0.9230 and resistance at 0.9450 levels. the trading range is expected between 0.9290-0.9420 levels.

Pound charts shows uptrend

Pound chart pattern indicates uptrend for the day with trading range expected between 1.9690-1.9770.the currency has its support at 1.9685 levels and holds resistance at 1.9880 levels. The Momentum indicated the currency to be on upper side and stochastic also tuned to the currency to be up trend for the day.

Rupee Strengthened

Rupee strengthened against the U.S. dollar because banks sold the greenback after the Reserve Bank of India hiked cash reserve ratio to drain excess liquidity and tame inflationary pressure. Inflation is hovering over a three-year high of over 7% for the last two weeks.

Tech view
Rupee is expected to trade to trade in the range of 39.75-39.95.With good support seen at 39.70 and key resistance for the currency is seen at at 40.00 levels. Currency is seen trading well below the moving averages and the Relative Market strength index is also hinting the currency to give a downward movement for the day.

EURO REACHED NEW HIGHS

Euro reached new record highs but the psychological 1.60 barrier could not be broken as the Euro was sold off following officials from the ECB indicating the Euro current level is undesirable. The Euro Zone’s Trade Balance for the month of February came in at $800 million, up from -$11 billion in January. Looking ahead for Germany to disclose PPI Core Output for the month with expectations of a growth from 3.8% to 4.0%.
TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
EURO is expected to trade in the range of 1.5850-1.5970.With good support seen at 1.5830 levels and breach below the support would see Euro at 1.5820.Key resistance is seen at 1.5980 levels. Though the currency is trading well above the moving averages small profit taking is expected for the past bull run .Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are pointing towards the possibility of slight market correction.

JPY WEAKENED

JPY weakened against the dollar as rallies in U.S, European and Asian equity markets prompted investors to take on carry trades through currencies such as the kiwi and Aussie dollar
TECHNICAL DAY FOR THE DAY
Yen is expected to trade in the range of 101.80-102.80.Good resistance is seen at 103 levels .key support is seen at 101.60 .currency is expected to be on a mixed note for the day .JPY lies well above the Moving averages which are giving bullish crossovers .But Relative Market Strength index and Stochastic are cautioning towards the possibility of small market correction

EVENING REPORT

EVENING REPORT
The U.S. currency also headed for its biggest weekly gain and the dollar rose on growing speculation financial firms will weather the credit-market turmoil. the US dollar strengthened against most majors. YEN was poised for a fifth days of declines against the Brazilian real, a favorite of so-called carry trades, in which investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. Inflation has eroded consumer purchasing power, and is becoming a concern for the BoJ, making any future rate cuts unlikely The risk is currency swings erase profits. EURO was seen on mixed note with low of 1.5819 levels. German producer prices rose to 3.8% -its fastest pace in 15 years -on higher energy costs. As companies try and pass these additional costs onto consumers, inflation will continue to be a major concern for the ECB. The pound strengthened versus 13 of the 16 most-traded currencies this past week. The pound rose to a two-week high against the dollar after the Wall Street Journal said the Bank of England may take up to 30 billion pounds ($60 billion) of infected mortgages off lenders' balance sheets to ease the credit crisis. The Australian dollars advanced signs the credit squeeze may be easing, spurring investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded with loans in Japan and climbed to its highest in almost six weeks as investors resumed so-called carry trades after Merrill Lynch & Co. yesterday wrote down less debt than some analysts forecast.
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GBP SURGED HIGH

GBP surged against the major currencies on speculation that the BoE will announce a plan to allow banks to swap mortgages for Government bonds for periods of 1-3 years to increase liquidity. This news encouraged the investors to sell the greenback and look towards to the higher yielding pound.
TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9840-1.9960 levels for the day. With good support seen at 1.9830 and key resistance is seen at 1.9970 break above the resistance would see the currency at 1.9981.Currency is expected to be on a uptrend for the day. Stochastic and Relative Strength index is also supporting the view. Moving Averages are giving Bullish crossovers confirming the trend.
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AUD IS IN RANGEBOUND

AUD was reasonably range bound as the greenback strengthened. The Aussie was well supported through its dips, as investors appetites for carry trades is still strong leaving it poised to push through the 94c barrier provided the first quarter export and import prices are released with favorable results.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY

Aussie is expected to trade in the range of 0.9320-0.9400 levels .With good support seen at 0.9310 and key resistance at 0.9420.Currency is expected to be on a mixed note but the possibility of a small downside correction cannot be ruled out as the sensitivity indicators Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are supporting the view but the AUD is seen trading well above the moving averages.

EVENING REPORT dated 17.04.2008

Rupee stayed firm as custodial banks were believed to have sold dollars on behalf of foreign funds investing in the local share market. The rupee however faced tough resistance around 39.90 because of dollar purchases by government-owned banks. dollar-Weekly initial claims and the Philadelphia Fed sentiment indicator are due today. The number of individuals filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance is expected to increase to 375,000 in the week to April 12, following a surprise drop to 357,000 claims in the previous week. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank survey of manufacturing conditions is expected to improve slightly to -15.0 in April from -17.4 in the previous month. But even if expectations are proven correct, there is no denying that the general outlook for the United States economy remains gloomy The hapless U.S. dollar was pinned close to its record low against the Euro as attention once again turned to interest rate differentials. The European Central Bank has to contend with rising prices as evidenced by upward revision of Euro zone inflation for March. YEN opened firmer and reached a high of 102.53levels.The Japanese trade ministry revised earlier industrial production figures for February to an increase of 1.6% from a decline of 1.2%. The positive numbers have tempered expectations of a recession for the country and reduced calls for a rate cut by the BoJ. The pound meanwhile stayed on the back foot as market players ignored news yesterday that the UK labor market remains tight.

RUPEE SEEN ON MIXED NOTE

Rupee is expected to trade in a narrow band as the Local shares are seen opening firm in tandem with global indices. This could spur dollar inflows from foreign funds investing into India shares. However dollar demand from state-run banks on behalf of the RBI may check rupee gains.
TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY

Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.85-40.00 levels. With good support seen at 39.80 levels and key resistance holds at 40.05 levels. Currency is trading below the fast moving averages giving a indication of the currency to give a small downward correction. Narrow band width in Bollingers point towards the possibility of narrow trade in the currency.

EURO SURGED TO NEW HIGHS

Euro surged to new heights even threatening to break the psychological barrier of 1.60 as Euro Zone CPI was revised up to 3.6% in March. Furthermore, core inflation rates rose to 2% for the first time in almost 5 years, justifying ECB President's hawkish outlook. The Euro hit all-time highs against the pound also, bolstering speculation the UK currency’s yield advantage over the single currency will diminish.

TECHNICALS FOR THE DAY

EURO is expected to trade in the range of 1.5880-1.5990.With good support seen at 1.5870 and key resistance is seen at the psychological levels of 1.600.Breach above the resistance will test 1.6010.Currency is expected to be on a mixed note for the day as it is trading well above the moving averages. But the overbought stochastic hinting towards the possibility of small downside correction.

JPY STRENGTHENED

JPY strengthened through the Asian session breaking through 101 BOJ President spoke on the yen testifying that the economy is unlikely to face a severe downturn and will return to its trend growth rate.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY

Yen is expected to be range bound with trading range of 101.20-102.70. Good support for the currency is seen at 101.00 levels and 102.90 levels holds as a key resistance .stochastic and Relative Market strength index is giving an indication for the currency to be on a uptrend for the day. yen is seen trading well above the fast moving averages confirming the trend.

POUND FELL TO RECORD LOW

GBP fell to record lows against the Euro as increased inflation pressures in the Euro weakened the sterling’s strength. The Sterling paired back its losses to the U.S as the U.S sell off pushed the pound temporarily above 1.98.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9670-1.9830.With good support seen at 1.9660 and key resistance is seen at 1.9840.Breach above the resistance will test 1.9850.Currency is expected to be have a upward correction for the day as it is trading well above the moving averages. Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are hinting towards the possibility of uptrend in the counter.

AUD STRENGTHENED

AUD strengthened from a downgrade in the US inflation rate coupled with a stronger risk appetite for commodity currencies. Furthermore, speculation is growing around Chinese entities as wanting a $22 billion stake in BHP, further increasing the demand for the Aussie dollar.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9330-0.9420.With key support seen at 0.9320 ans 0.9300 levels. Good resistance for the currency is seen at 0.9430.Stochastic and Relative Strength Index is are giving indication of the currency to have a small downside correction.

evening report

Rupee was seen trading in a narrow band of 39.90-40.00 on expectation of outcome of the interest rate meetings of Reserve Bank of India and U.S. Federal Reserve .There are also no fresh clues from market as there was no big inflows from FII .The dollar edged higher after surprisingly strong inflation and manufacturing data suggested the Federal Reserve would not continue to cut U.S. interest rates quite so aggressively. Hotter than expected CPI data out of the Euro zone propelled the Euro through the 1.5960 levels as focus returned to inflation which will likely continue to dictate a restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for the time being. The data printed at 3.6% versus 3.5% as food energy and clothing costs all rose more than expected. With ECB mandated to control price pressures rather than manage growth, today’s number essentially assured the market that Mr. Trichet and company will remain hawkish keeping rates at 4% for the foreseeable future. The pound rebounded from a six-week low against the dollar after stock-market gains boosted appetite for higher-yielding currencies. Gilts fell the most in two weeks after a government report showed the drop in unemployment benefits to a 33-year low easing concern the economy is slowing.

evening report

Rupee was seen trading in a narrow band of 39.90-40.00 on expectation of outcome of the interest rate meetings of Reserve Bank of India and U.S. Federal Reserve .There are also no fresh clues from market as there was no big inflows from FII .The dollar edged higher after surprisingly strong inflation and manufacturing data suggested the Federal Reserve would not continue to cut U.S. interest rates quite so aggressively. Hotter than expected CPI data out of the Euro zone propelled the Euro through the 1.5960 levels as focus returned to inflation which will likely continue to dictate a restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for the time being. The data printed at 3.6% versus 3.5% as food energy and clothing costs all rose more than expected. With ECB mandated to control price pressures rather than manage growth, today’s number essentially assured the market that Mr. Trichet and company will remain hawkish keeping rates at 4% for the foreseeable future. The pound rebounded from a six-week low against the dollar after stock-market gains boosted appetite for higher-yielding currencies. Gilts fell the most in two weeks after a government report showed the drop in unemployment benefits to a 33-year low easing concern the economy is slowing.

Rupee expected to remain range-bound as some banks avoided selling dollars on the view that Reserve Bank of India may mop-up dollars through state-owned banks Indian unit stayed steady as dollar supplies from some exporters matched demand from oil companies.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY

Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.85-40.05 levels. With good support seen at 39.80 levels and key resistance holds at 40.10 levels. Currency is trading on the fast moving averages so only a crossovers can give confirmation on the trend. Stochastic are pointing towards the uptrend to continue for the day.

EURO EASED

Euro eased in light of the strong data released from the U.S. French CPI was released on Tuesday with a result of 3.2%, which sat at the upper band of expectations, along with Italy’s CPI reading of 3.3%, which will put upward pressure on the already heated Euro Zone CPI. Looking ahead for the day are the core CPI for Germany with forecasts of a growth from 2.8% .

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
EURO is trading well below the fast moving average and chart pattern indicates the currency to have a small downward correction. Trading range for the day is expected between 1.5720-1.5840 .Good support is seen at 1.5710 and resistance seen at 1.5850 levels. Momentum and stochastic are giving clues for the currency to have a downward correction.

YEN FELL AGAINST DOLLAR

Yen fell against the dollar on the release of strong U.S inflation and manufacturing data. The news supported a positive outlook for the greenback as the market believes the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates as aggressively as seen since January. Meaning the yen may weaken further in the ensuing days if positive U.S data keeps flowing.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
Yen is expected to trade in the range of 101.20-102.30. Good support for the currency is seen at 101.10 levels and 102.50 levels holds as a key resistance .stochastic and Relative Market strength index is giving an indication for the currency to have a downward correction for the day. yen is seen trading well below the moving averages.

POUND IS AT RECORD LOW AGAINST EURO

GBP fell as reports suggest consumer prices have risen at a slower pace than forecast last month at 0.3%, worse than the predicted 0.5%, causing CPI to be lower than expected at 0.4% m/m compared to the fore casted 0.6% m/m and it is likely to put renewed expectations of further rate cuts from the BOE . The pound fell to record lows against the Euro and to six week lows against the dollar. Looking ahead are the ILO Unemployment Rate with the forecasts of no change from the current 5.2%.

TECHNICAL FOR THE DAY
Pound chart pattern indicates downtrend for the day with trading range expected between 1.9540-1.9670.currency has a good support at 1.9530 levels and 1.9670 holds as a key resistance level. Stochastic and Relative market strength index is giving clues for the currency to have a down trend for the day .It is also seen trading well below the moving averages.

AUD WEAKENED

AUD weakened on the back of a stronger U.S currency overnight as positive results coming out of the States which pushed the Aussie dollar down below the 92.5 cent mark. RBA Governor speech indicated that the current rate of 7.25% is having the desired effect on reducing consumer demand prompting traders to add to bets there will be no rate hike in the short-medium term.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY
AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on uptrend for the day . Currency is expected to trade in the range of 0.9210-0.9340.Good support is seen at 0.9200 levels and key resistance is seen at 0.9350 levels. MACD supports the currency to give a small correction for the day and stochastic is also supporting the view.

AUD REMAINS FIRMER

AUD opened firmer and is remains steady at $0.9315, just below three-week highs of $0.9347, even though the U.S. currency enjoyed a rally of its own against other major currencies.
TECH FOR THE DAY

AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on uptrend for the day . The support is seen at 0.9280 levels and holds resistance at 0.9355 levels. The trading range is expected between 0.9290-0.9340 for the day. MACD supports the currency to remain on bull note for the day but stochastic cautions the currency to have a downward correction in near term..

YEN NEUTRALS

The yen also may weaken on speculation G-7 countries will take additional steps to revive money markets, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. The yen headed for a weekly loss against the Euro as a rally in Asian stocks prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets with loans from Japan.
TECH FOR THE DAY
Yen chart pattern indicates the currency be on uptrend and expected to trade between 101.40-102.45.stochastic indicates the currency to remain neutral. The currency has its support at 101.20 levels and resistance at 102.60.

POUND UPTREND FOR THE DAY

Dollar weakened against the British pound today before an industry report that will probably show U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 16-year low. AUD opened firmer and is remains steady at $0.9315, just below three-week highs of $0.9347, even though the U.S. currency enjoyed a rally of its own against other major currencies.
TECH FOR THE DAY
Pound chart pattern indicates uptrend for the day with trading range expected between 1.9690-1.9770.the currency has its support at 1.9685 levels and holds resistance at 1.9880 levels. The Momentum indicated the currency to be on upper side and stochastic also tuned to the currency to be up trend for the day.

EURO STRENGTHENS

TECH FOR THE DAY

EURO is trading well above the fast moving average and chart pattern indicates the currency to be on uptrend. the trading range is expected between 1.5725-1.5830 .the support is seen at 1.5720 and holds resistance at 1.5850 levels. the momentum is trending upwards yet a slight downward correction would be expected as MACD cautions on near term. The currency expected to be on bull note for the day.

Rupee marginally high

Rupee is expected to be marginally high with expectations of banks selling the greenback and takes clues from firmer share market.

TECH FOR THE DAY

Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.90-40.00.Currency is expected to give a upward movement. Good support is seen at 39.85 break of and key resistance for the currency is at 40.10 levels .

MARKET RECAP

Rupee stayed firm on dollar sales from exporters and custodial banks. Marginal rise in local shares lifted the rupee with some foreign banks selling dollars. The US dollar declined against its major counterparts in early deals on , hitting a fresh record low against the euro. Against its other major counterparts, the dollar weakened to new multi-day low during this time period. The US trade balance was less than expected , initial jobless and continuing claims are the major economic events slated for release .The European currency rose to a fresh record high against the pound and the dollar ahead of the interest rates decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The ECB is not expected to cut interest rates today or any time soon, given the very high inflation levels. However BOE cuts its main rate by a quarter-percentage point to 5%. The US dollar edged down against the Japanese yen and dollar hit a 9-day low of 100.29 .The pound fell on speculation and Still, declines by the pound may be limited on speculation the U.K. central bank will have to temper the need to stoke growth with curbing inflation, which quickened to the fastest pace in nine months in February.

AUD WEAKENED

AUD weakened in the Asian session following poor consumer sentiment results which saw a drop in confidence by a further -1.3% to a 15-year low, before regaining somewhat in New York following weaker U.S stocks. Looking ahead is the Unemployment Rate which is due with a forecast from 4.0% to 4.1%.

TECH VIEW

AUD chart pattern indicates the currency to be on uptrend for the day . The support is seen at 0.9260 levels and holds resistance at 0.9345 levels. The trading range is expected between 0.9270-0.9340 for the day. MACD supports the currency to remain on bull note for the day .

JPY STRENGTHNED

JPY strengthened slightly against the dollar despite the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% with a unanimous 9-0 vote coupled with weaker U.S equity markets.

TECH VIEW

Yen chart pattern indicates the currency be on downtrend and expected to trade between 100.30-102.10.stochastic indicates the currency to move downside. The currency has its support at 100.20 levels and resistance at 102.20.overall technicals indicate the currency to be downside for near term.

POUND RECOVERED

GBP recovered from 6-week lows against the greenback edging above the key 1.97 level. pound fell against the Euro to all-time lows of .8012. Industrial production did grow 0.3% for the month of February, greater than the forecast of 0.1%. However, traders are still adding to bets that the BOE may announce a rate cut in the meet.

TECH VIEW
Pound chart pattern indicates uptrend for the day with trading range expected between 1.9715-1.9820.the currency has its support at 1.9710 levels and holds resistance at 1.9825 levels. The DMI in neutral territory and stochastic indicates the currency to have a downward correction in near term.

EURO GRINNED HIGHER

EURO grinned higher as poor economic data coming out from the U.K and U.S, combined with strengthening expectations the ECB may keep rates unchanged at 4.0% continue to push the Euro to near record highs. Economic data released saw Q4 GDP revised lower to 0.4% q/q and 2.2% y/y. Germany’s trade surplus improved in February to $16.4 billion. Euro outstripping expectations of a decline to $15.8 billion.

TECH VIEW

EURO is trading well above the fast moving average and chart pattern indicates the currency to be on uptrend. the trading range is expected between 1.5790-1.5885 .the support is seen at 1.5785 and holds resistance at 1.5890 levels. the momentum is trending upwards and currency expected to be on bull note for the day.

Indian rupee

Indian Rupee was marginally higher as banks sold dollars noting its weakness overseas. The dollar has lost against the Euro and the pound sterling before their central bank meetings. The rupee's rise is likely to be limited on dollar demand from importers and oil companies.

TECH VIEW

Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.90-40.05.Currency is expected to give a downward correction for the day. Good support is seen at 39.85 break of which would see 39.80 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.10 levels .Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication for the currency to have a downward correction for the day.

GBP seen weak-April 09

GBP was sold off throughout the New York session which saw it hit a record low against the Euro as data released on UK housing prices indicated a drop in prices by -2.5% for the month of March which is worst decline since September 1992. Added to this investors have been factoring in the growing likelihood of a rate cut when the BOE meet this week. Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9610-1.9720 levels for the day. With good support seen at1.9590 and key resistance is seen at 1.9730 levels. Chart Patterns indicates the currency to have a downtrend for the day. Sterling is trading well below the fast and slow moving averages confirming the downtrend with stochastic and MACD supporting the downtrend.

Aussie grinned higher-April 09

AUD grinned higher tracking equity markets in the Asian session, before poor U.S data saw it rise up above the key US93c level. The Aussie Dollar also rose after reports of Mergers & Acquisitions pipelines, that China was interested in purchasing a larger stake in BHP . Looking ahead for the day are the consumer sentiment for the month of April with previous figures seen at -9.1%.AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9250-0.9350.Currency is having a good support at 0.9230 levels and key resistance is seen at 0.9360.Aussie is expected to be on a mixed note for the day as it is trading well above the fast and slow moving averages .But overbought levels are seen for Aussie in stochastic and Relative Market Strength Index giving room for a probability of small downside correction in the counter.

JPY rose -April 09

JPY rose to a three month high against the Euro, whilst it lost ground against the U.S dollar as Japanese investors continue to look towards high yielding assets. The BOJ is widely expected to hold rates at 0.5%. Yen is expected to trade in the range of 101.80-103.00 levels. With key support seen at 101.50 levels and resistance for the same is seen at 103.10 levels. Downtrend in the Japanese currency can be confirmed with the break of 102.20 levels where in the fast moving average lie. Stochastic and Relative Market strength index is also hinting towards the downtrend in the currency

Euro falls on poor housing figures

Euro fell slightly against the USD overnight but rose to a record high against the sterling as poor housing figures and possible rate cuts overshadow the UK currency. The market is seemingly reluctant to heavily buy the Euro as they wait for the ECB rate announcement with expectations that ECB President Trichet is sound to a little more dovish in his economic outlook for the Euro Zone although rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%. Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5610-1.5810.With key support seen at 1.5590 and resistance for the currency is seen at 1.5820 levels .currency is trading well below the fast moving averages giving clues for the downtrend Stochastic and Relative Market Strength index are also pointing towards the downtrend for the day. Averages of MACD line is also supporting the view.
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Rupee in narrow trade-April 09

Rupee was little changed as traders avoided taking major positions awaiting cues from the local share markets. Banks also avoided selling dollars on views that RBI's dollar buying may limit gains. importers are seen buying dollars at the current levels which could push the rupee down. oil and gold-related dollar demand could emerge today and weaken the rupee further. Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.90-40.10.Currency is expected to trade on upper side for the day. Good support is seen at 39.85 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.15.Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication for the currency to be on a bull note.

AUD seen very volatile

AUD had a volatile day as news of Australia’s worse than expected trade deficit seen at -$3.29 billion, outstripping expectations of -$2.5 billion, caused the Aussie Dollar to bottom out at 0.9180 before gaining momentum on the back of an increasing investor risk appetite for high yielding assets.AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9210-0.9320.With good support seen at 0.9200 and key resistance is seen at 0.9330.Currency is expected to give a upward correction for the day as the Daily Chart pattern shows a double bottom formation in the currency. But the neck level is seen at 0.9270 break of which will help the currency to test the resistance level.

Yen trading sideways

Yen traded sideways throughout Monday following the U.S’ slight recovery. The big announcement for the day is the BOJ rate announcement with forecasts expecting the bank to maintain its current stance of 0.5%. Yen is expected to trade in the range of 101.70-103.10.With key resistance seen at 103.20 and good support is seen at 101.50. Candlestick pattern is hinting the Currency to give a small correction for the day. But only a breach below 102.10 would give clues for the currency to move on to a bearish note.

GBP Weakened

GBP weakened overnight as speculation grows the BOE will cut interest rates on Thursday to help stimulate the slowing economy. Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9820-1.9995.With good support seen at 1.9800 and resistance seen at 2.006.Currency is expected to give a small downside correction for the day but would be seen giving a range bound movement for the day. It is trading well below the fast and slow moving averages.

Euro view

Euro dropped slightly against the greenback partly due to the increased sentiment around the U.S following Washington Mutuals capital injection. Looking ahead for the day is the ECB rate announcement with expectations that the bank will maintain its current rate at 4.0% particularly following the German Industrial Output data which saw a growth of 0.4% indicating the Euro is remaining solid.

Tech view:
Euro is expected to trade in the range of 1.5680-1.5800.With good support seen at 1.5650.key support seen at 1.5810.Currency is expected to be on a bullish note for the day as it is trading well above the fast moving averages giving bullish crossovers. Sensitivity indicator stochastic and Relative Market strength index are pointing towards the uptrend to continue for the day.

Rupee Eased tracking shares

The Indian rupee eased as falls in Asian stock markets sparked worries that foreigners would sell stocks and repatriate the funds . Dollar-buying by state-run banks for oil firms also added to its weakness. Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.90-40.10.Currency is expected to trade on upper side for the day. Good support is seen at 39.85 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.15.Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication for the currency to be on a uptrend for the day

evening report-april 04

India Rupee Trims gains as share markets fall spurs banks to buy dollar. Custodial banks were seen buying dollars eying weak local shares and a slight demand from foreign institutional investors were also seen. But most of the banks refrained from taking big dollar positions ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data. U.S. dollar was trading firmer against major currencies as investors braced themselves ahead of the release of U.S. jobs data.'The U.S. payrolls have kept many investors sidelined. Euro was seen trading green with German factory orders fell by 0.5% in February. Despite the decline the year-over year numbers improved to 9.0% from a revised 8.9% the month prior. The majority of the decline was a result of automobile orders declining 1.4%, as global demand suffers. The ECB may be hard pressed going forward to refrain from lowering interest rates, despite their inflation concerns. Pound gained and was seen trading green for the day .Activity in the UK service sector slowed which led to some temporary weakness in the British pound. The currency quickly recovered however on the heels of a disappointing US jobless claim report. The Japanese economic calendar has been devoid of any significant data but Many of the Yen crosses have recovered significantly over the past week but further strength will now be contingent upon US non-farm payrolls report.

Euro under pressure

EURO felt the pressure coming from retail sales results overnight, with a contraction in spending by -0.5% for the month of February after initial expectations of a rise by 0.2%. PMI services data released overnight saw a figure of 51.6 for the month of March, a reduction from 52.3 for February. Euro Chart pattern indicates it to give a small correction for the day. With the trading range of 1.5580-1.5730 for the day. Good support is seen at 1.5560 and key resistance is seen at 1.5745.Currency is trading well below the fast moving averages and is also giving bearish crossovers. Relative Market strength index and stochastic are also pointing towards the downtrend to continue for the day.

Rupee in narrow trade

The rupee is likely to soften after an easing in Asian equities that may lead to outflows of foreign capital from the local stock market .Any Inflow from exporters or foreign funds is likely to be offset by Reserve Bank of India's dollar purchases through nationalized banks. Since the RBI started buying this week the market were seen on range-bound trade and it is likely to remain so for the day . Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.95-40.10.Currency is expected to trade in a narrow range for the day. Good support is seen at 39.90 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.20.Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication for the currency to be on a mixed note for the day.

AUD tracks commodities

AUD rallied as commodities headed higher. The Aussie Dollar was also boosted by rebounding Asian Stock Markets and after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S.Bernanke eased concern that the U.S. economic slowdown will deepen prompting a return to the High Yielding Currency. All focus is being placed on Retail Sales figures and RBA Governor Stevens talk. AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9090-0.9190.With good support seen at 0.9070 and key resistance is seen at 0.9200. Currency is expected to be on a mixed note for the day as Sensitivity indicator Stochastic lying on a neutral territory and momentum oscillators holding the currency on upper note . Currency is also trading well below the fast moving averages.

yen on bull note

JPY eased further against the greenback as Fed Chairman Bernanke said he didn’t anticipate rescuing another Wall Street firm.Yen is expected to be on bull note with trading range expected between 101.90-102.90.the support is expected at 101 levels and resistance at 103.10 Momentum and stochastic supports the currency to be on upward trend. The Averages of MACD also indicates the currency to be on bull note for the day.

Gbp rallied higher

GBP rallied across the board as Mortgage Approvals for the month of February fell less then expectations, prompting traders to trim bets that the BOE will move to cut rates . Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9790-1.9940.support is seen at 1.9760 levels and resistance for the same is seen at 1.9970.stochastic is at neutral territory and relative market strength index seems flat thereby giving an indication of the currency to have a mixed note for the day. Currency trading on the fast moving average not giving any confirmation on the trend.

Euro rebounded

EURO rebounded as Fed comments of growing uncertainty in the U.S. PPI figures for the month of February came in on expectations at 0.6%. Looking ahead Retail Sales figure out of Europe will be key data with forecasts lying at 0.2% ECB president Trichet is scheduled to where markets are widely expecting a hawkish stance emphasizing the banks focus on fighting inflation. Euro is expected to have mixed for the day with lending support at 1.5540 and holding resistance at 1.5840 . Trading range is expected between 1.5590-1.5810 levels. Momentum holds upward and stochastic gives a caution signal for slight downward correction. Currency is trading well below the moving averages giving confirmation on the downtrend

Rupee opened marginally higher

Rupee had opened marginally higher on anticipation that local shares is likely to gain and this could in turn spur foreign fund inflows. But currency slipped after rising marginally in early trade on dollar demand from a state-run bank and a major oil company. Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.80-40.10.Currency is expected to be highly volatile for the day. Good support is seen at 39.75 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.20.Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication of the downtrend but an element of caution is required as it is seen at oversold levels.

Aussie weak

AUD saw the RBA leave its cash rate at 7.25% as widely expected, as comments made note of “overall tightening in financial conditions since the middle of 2007 has been substantial”, whilst growth in domestic demand appears to be moderating as inflation is perceived to decline over time. Furthermore, lower commodities once again weighed heavy on the Aussie.

AUD is expected to trade in the range of 0.9030-0.9130.With good support seen at 0.9020 and key resistance is seen at 0.9145. Currency is expected to be on a bearish note for the day as Sensitivity indicator Stochastic and momentum oscillators are also signaling towards the bear trend to continue for the day. Currency is also trading well below the fast moving averages.

JPY fell against usd

JPY fell sharply against the Japanese Yen, after stronger than expected ISM data from US pushed it towards 102.00. The dollar halted a two-day rally against the yen on speculation an industry report will show companies cut jobs and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will signal more interest-rate cuts.
Yen is expected to be on upside for the day with lending support at 100.80 and holding resistance at 102.60 levels . Trading range is expected between 100.90-102.40 levels for the day. currency is well supported by momentum which holds on upper side and stochastic indicating the same. MACD also indicates the currency to be on bull note for the day.

Euro and pound eased

EURO eased considerably on news that US manufacturing had contracted less then expected for the month of March. Euro zone PMI Manufacturing was released on expectations at 52. In other news, Unemployment in Europe largest economy (Germany) fell to its lowest level since 1992 to 7.8% for the month of March (Previous: 8%). Looking ahead are the PPI figures for the month
Euro is expected to trade on a bearish note for the day with the trading range of 1.5500-1.5635.With good support seen at 1.5480 and key resistance at 1.5650.Momentum gives an indication of downward trend and it is complimented by stochastic .Averages of MACD also indicates the currency to be on bear note.Currency is also trading below the fast moving averages .

GBP eased the UK Financial sector continues to feel the brunt of the global credit crunch. The Sterling Pound also gave up its mid-session gains on a broadly stronger dollar boosted by positive ISM readings. Pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.9710-1.9820.support is seen at 1.9700 levels and resistance for the same is seen at1.9830..Widen band width is giving a indication for the market to be highly volatile but stochastic and relative market strength index is giving an indication of bearish trend to continue for the day. Currency is also trading well below the fast moving average which is confirming the downtrend.

Rupee likely to gain

The rupee is likely to gain on expectations that the RBI will use currency strength to fight inflation and on hopes of foreign buying of stocks following strong gains in other Asian markets. Asian stocks jumped and bonds fell after a Lehman Brothers securities offering met strong demand, raising hopes that the worst of the credit crisis might be over. Volatility in the Indian rupee will rise on speculation of Reserve Bank of India meet on interest rates.Rupee is expected to trade in the range of 39.80-40.10.Currency is expected to be highly volatile for the day. Good support is seen at 39.70 and key resistance for the currency is at 40.20.Stochastic and Relative Market strength index are giving a indication of the downtrend but an element of caution is required as it is seen at oversold levels.