Evening Report-Jun 18.

Rupee closed at 48.21 levels for the day and faced a resistance at 48.32 levels. India's inflation rate for the week entered into negative territory for the first time giving ample scope for the government to allot more funds in the next month's Budget to boost economic growth. India's Advance Tax Collection also Rises During Apr- Jun Period. After earlier losses the dollar has regained its footing and is benefiting from increased risk aversion on the back of weak U.K. consumption figures. We may see continued greenback support as markets start to come to the reality that any recovery will be prolonged and challenging. On the US economic docket we will see focus on the upcoming initial jobless claims figures as traders look for signs that the labor market is improving. Forecasts are for new filings to remain level at 602k after 601k the month prior as the pace of layoffs has slowed. A drop below the 600K level could spark an improvement in risk sentiment and weigh on the dollar. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reading is forecasted to improve to -17.0 from -22.6 which would be the highest since September, 2008. The Euro has seen see saw price action during European trading as bullish sentiment is being challenged by declining equity markets. The Italian trade balance was the only fundamental release which showed a deficit of 277 billion euros after a surplus of 69 billion the month prior as exports sharply fell. Despite, signs of stabilization in the economic union there are several countries that are still facing considerable challenges. Indeed, the German economic Ministry June report stated that the contraction is weaker than previously and expects a bottoming by the end of 2009 but downside risk remain high. The Pound sunk nearly 100 pips immediately after the disappointing release of U.K. May retail sales which unexpectedly fell by 0.6%. Early forecasts were looking for a 0.3% gain which would have been a third straight month of improvement, but months of job losses made it difficult for Britons to sustain the level of demand. However, public sector net borrowing rose to £19.8 billion which was the highest since record keeping began in 1993 and a sign credit markets are thawing. A reversal in consumption at non-food and non-specialized stores which fell by -1.4% and -1.8%, signals that Britons have reigned in non-discretionary spending. Signs of stabilization in the economy had led to gains the past two months but now that the built up demand has been exhausted, future purchases will come under scrutiny. Meanwhile calls for spending to be curbed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will put added pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown as the government continues to increase its debt in an attempt to spur an economic recovery. Also BoE Governor King speaking today said that although that there a signs of a recovery, it is too soon to reverse stimulus and liquidity measures but the time has come to plan an exit strategy. Japanese Yen remained under downside pressure and was capped below 96 zone.