The Indian Rupee was virtually unchanged in low volume in line with other Asian currencies as a steady stock market failed to provide direction. The U.S. dollar lost ground during the overnight as higher equity prices continued to fuel a rise in risk appetite however, a dismal Non-Farm Payrolls report could drag on the markets as investors weigh the outlook for global growth. The U.S. labor market is projected to have lost 520K jobs in May, while the annual rate of unemployment is anticipated to reach a 26-year high of 9.2% but, the ADP report earlier this week showed a 532K drop in private-payrolls, which already exceeds the NFP forecast, and a bigger-than-expected drop in employment could drive the greenback higher as the reserve currency continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. In addition, the economic docket is expected to show a slower decline in consumer credit for the month of April but nevertheless, the release may reflect a deepening downturn in lending activity as households face a weakening labor market paired with a weakening outlook for future growth. The Euro ticked up during the overnight trade to reach an intra day high of 1.4229, but pare gains throughout the European session to trade at 1.4190 ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. . Nevertheless ECB President Trichet continued to reinforce an improved outlook for future growth following the interest rate decision while the Bundes bank expects economic activity in Germany to contract 6.2% this year and stagnate in 2010. In addition the German central bank went onto say that they expected price growth to average 0.1% this year, while the annual rate of unemployment is anticipated to reach 10.5% by the middle of next year. The British pound continued to retrace the advance from earlier in the week during the overnight session, and slipped to an intra day low of 1.6018 as Prime Minister Gordon Brown faced pressures to resign from office. Mr. Brown shuffled the members of his Cabinet in an effort to secure his position, while rumors emerged Alistair Darling will continue to hold his post as the Chancellor of the Exchequer. As political tensions threaten the outlook for long-term stability, the Sterling may continue to depreciation against its major currency counterparts, and investors are likely to hold a bearish bias against the pound as the outlook for growth and inflation remain bleak. Meanwhile the economic docket for the U.K. showed producer prices increased for the third consecutive month in May, with input prices rising 0.4% from the previous month, led by higher energy costs. At the same time output prices increased 0.4% during the month with the annual rate falling 0.3% while the core measure grew 0.2% during the month amid expectations for a 0.3% rise. Japanese Yen plunged to a 3-day low of 96.93 against the US dollar.
Friday, June 5, 2009
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