Monday, June 15, 2009

Euro and Sterling could not stand USD strength-Jun 16.

Euro continued with Friday’s theme of a slow trend lower. The Pair fell from 1.4000 to test support at 1.3790 before bouncing off 1.3750. Numerous negative Euro stories flooded the market yesterday which combined with stock weakness for a substantial move. Looking ahead for German Zew Survey(Economic Sentiment) for June forecast to rise to 35 from 31 previously. Sterling held up better than most but succumbed to USD strength. EUR/GBP broke through 0.8500 and supported during the day. A CBI report expects the UK economy to not rebound until 2010 and that expansion of the Quantitative easing program will be required. Looking ahead for May CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.
Technical view:
EURO chart pattern shows a bearish note for the day. Currency is expected to trade in the range of 1.3720-1.3970 levels. Momentum is seen trending down and Parabolic is holding on the bear note and Euro is trading below the moving average confirming the outlook..Good support is seen at 1.3670 and break of which will see 1.3420 levels in near term and key resistance is seen at1.4020 levels.
GBP chart pattern points towards a sideways to bearish note and trade in the range of 1.6150-1.6380 levels for the day. Momentum is seen trending down and the Relative strength index is also trending down Currency is giving downward consolidation after testing the upper bollingers hinting towards downward correction to 1.5950 .Key resistance for the currency is seen at 1.6430 levels. Caution is given by parabolic as is is pointing towards bull note.

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