Friday, May 15, 2009

Evening Report-May 15.


The Indian Rupee pared gains as uncertainty about the outcome of general elections due on Saturday continued to weigh, with traders also keenly tracking the domestic sharemarket moves.U.S. dollar has held firm during overnight trading despite Asian and European equity markets trading in positive territory. Although, there is still an underlying concern that a global recovery will be prolonged which was supported by the dour EZ GDP figures. A slew of fundamental data for the U.S. will cross the wires today including the consumer price report. Inflation is expected to have remained flat during April but the more closely watched yearly number is forecasted to fall to -0.6% keeping deflation concerns alive. Meanwhile, industrial production and Empire manufacturing are also forecasted to remain in negative territory but show improvement from the month prior. Falling prices and declining activity in the U.S. will only add to current growth concerns and could fuel risk aversion and lend dollar support. However, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is forecasted to improve for a third consecutive month to 67.0 from 65.1 which could temper pessimism as it may signal a return of consumer spending and domestic growth. Euro fell to as low as 1.3550 as the regions growth figures started to cross the wires starting with German GDP contracting by 3.8% which was the most in four decades. This lead to the aggregate GDP figures for the Euro-zone falling by a record 2.5% as declining global and domestic demand caused companies to cut production and layoff workers. Meanwhile, inflation held steady for the economic union at 0.6% while the core reading rose to 1.8% from 1.6% as we saw a pick up in recreation and travel costs. The central bank has long been considered to be behind the curve which fostered the pessimistic outlook for growth in the region.pound has seen light volume with an empty economic calendar and focus on the Euro-zone and U.S today. However, we have seen it come under pressure falling below 1.5150 as the currency lost its favor following the dour outlook from the BoE in their quarterly inflation report. Sterling has closely tracked equity markets and if we see weakness in the U.S. session today then the downside risk will increase. US dollar plunges to low against Japanese yen.Core machinery orders in Japan were down 1.3 percent to 727.9 billion yen compared to the previous month, significantly better than forecasts for a 4.6 percent .Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said the price of corporate goods in Japan fell 3.8 percent on year in April .

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