Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Euro biggest gainer and sterling came under pressure-Mar 19.

Euro was the biggest mover in the markets gaining over 3% after the key level 1.3080 was broken and the FOMC announced plans to Quantitative Ease. With stocks also rallying it was the perfect storm for the Euro out pacing other currencies. EUR/GBP was especially buoyant with resistance at 95 needed to halt the advance. Sterling came under heavy selling pressure early in the European session breaking below 1.4000 as UK data continued to disappoint. February Claimant count change jumped to 134K vs. 84.5K. MPC minutes showed 9-0 vote to cut although concern about setting rates too low could mean further cuts are unlikely. The FOMC trumped all other considerations and Cable surged to 1.43. Looking ahead for March CBI Orders forecast at -55 vs. -56 previously.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.3580 S1:1.3280
R2: 13590 S2:1.3250
Chart pattern hints towards a small downside correction for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.3290-1.3570 levels for the day. Currency has breached the upper Bollinger level and is expected to test 1.3302 levels. Weekly charts are pointing further bullishness to 1.3750.Stochastic is also pointing down giving consolidation signals.

GBP R1: 1.4370 S1: 1. 4120
R2: 1.4390 S2: 1. 4100
Chart pattern signals a mixed note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4140-1.4360 levels for the day. RSI and stochastic are seen trending up and Currency is trading above the moving averages confirming the bull note But parabolic is giving a caution.

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