Rupee was largely unchanged after falling for three consecutive days as investors waited cues from the stock market. Currency pulled back from 50.10 levels on dollar sales by state-run banks. The withdrawals have been a key driver for the rupee. One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were at 50.25/30, weaker than the onshore spot rateU.S. Dollar maintained strength as risk aversion remained high and Economic data continued to weaken. January Industrial Output dropped -1.8% vs. -1.5%. Also released the FOMC minutes which downgraded the 2009 GDP growth forecast to -1.3% vs. -0.2%. The big news in the market was the further slump in January Housing starts which fell to .466Mln .Demand for the dollar was tempered by speculation that the U.S.’s largest automakers will fail unless they get increased government aid .Looking ahead for Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast at 4.86Mln vs. 4.81Mln previously. January PPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously .
Technical Outlook:
USDINR chart pattern indicates a bullish consolidation. Currency is expected to test the previous close of 49.68 levels for the day. Stochastic has given bearish crossovers confirming the trend. Trading range is expected to be in the range of 49.68-50.10.If currency sustains above 50.10 levels it will have its resistance at 50.80 in near term. Good Support is seen at 49.55 break of which will rest at 48.30.
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