Monday, February 9, 2009

Euro shrugged off but Sterling continued the bull rally

Euro shrugged off weak economic data to capitalize on the equity rally and weak USD. December German Industrial Production dropped -4.6% vs. -2.5% forecast. Looking ahead for December Trade Balance is seen at 9.9Bn vs. 10.7Bn. February Sentix Index is forecast -30 vs. -34.4 previously. Sterling continued the recent rally as USD weakness enticed another leg higher. Speculation is mounting that the rate cutting cycle is nearing an end in the UK. December Industrial Production dropped -2.2% vs. -1.3% expected. January PPI jumped on the back of the weak exchange rate causing imports to become more expensive.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.3050 S1:1.2820
R2: 1.3080 S2:1.2800
chart pattern hints sideways note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2850-1.3030 levels for the day. Currency is seen trading between the fast and slow moving average giving mixed outlook. Stochastic and momentum are seen flat but parabolic is supporting the bearish note.
GBP R1: 1.4840 S1: 1. 4560
R2: 1.4860 S2: 1. 4550
chart pattern signals a bearish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4580-1.4830 levels for the day. Currency is trading above the moving average and Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish crossover but the trend can be confirmed only with the break of 1.4710.

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