Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Euro and Pound came under selling pressure-Feb 11.

Euro came under selling pressure as EUR/JPY sales and a report out of Japan concerning $400bn Russian Bank Debt took hold. The reports were discounted and the pair rallied back above 1.3000 before risk aversion became the dominate force sending the pair crashing lower. Looking ahead, January CPI is forecast to -0.5% vs. 0.3% previously. Sterling fell back sharply as the GBP/JPY shunted lower. UK December Trade Balance improved to -7.4Bn vs. -8.1Bn previously. GBP has been very volatile in recent months so the 400 pip drop does not necessarily indicate a resumption of Pound weakness. Looking ahead for December ILO Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 6.3 vs. 6.1. The Unemployment Change in January is forecast to rise to 90k vs. 77.9K previously.
Technical Outlook:
EURO R1: 1.2980 S1:1.2770
R2: 1.3010 S2:1.2750
Chart pattern hints bearish note for the day . Trading range for the day is expected between 1.2790-1.2950 levels for the day. Currency is seen trading below the moving average giving bearish outlook. Stochastic and momentum are seen trending down and parabolic is also supporting the bearish note.
GBP R1: 1.4660 S1: 1. 4360
R2: 1.4680 S2: 1. 4350
Chart pattern signals a bearish note for the day. Trading range is expected between 1.4380-1.4650 levels for the day. Currency is trading below the moving average and Momentum and stochastic are seen trending down giving bearish crossover .

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